Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?

I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.

[Alcon]

Later absentee ballots tend to be more Republican, at least for the last few years.

It also, of course, depends on how much of a given day's load is King County.  But there are obvious gains here.

Gregoire losing Cowlitz is weird, especially since Goldmark and Ladenburg both won it.  Speaking of that, what's with Ladenburg in SW Wash. in general?  I'd say media markets, but um, were there actually advertisements for this all?

[Alcon]

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary?

[Alcon]

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary?

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.

I'm afraid to ask just in case that isn't a metaphor.

[Alcon]

Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

[Alcon]

Ah, interesting, thanks

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks, but maybe law still demands that the undercounts be checked?

[Alcon]

Could you do my precinct? Fry Cove (thurston county) 094

Candidates receiving 5% or more:

U.S. House of Representatives
Brian Baird (D) 57.1%
Cheryl Crist (D) 17.5%
Michael Delevar (R) 17.2%
Christine Webb (R) 8.2%

Governor
Christine Gregoire (D) 58.3%
Dino Rossi (R) 37.6%

Lt. Governor
Brad Owen (D) 63.1%
Marcia McCraw (R) 15.1%
Jim Wiest (R) 12.6%
Randel Bell (D) 7.4%

Secretary of State
Sam Reed (R) 71.0%
Jason Osgood (D) 23.9%

State Treasurer
Allan Martin (R) 35.4%
Jim McIntire (D) 34.1%
ChangMook Sohn (D) 30.5%

State Auditor
Brian Sonntag (D) 72.2%
Richard McEntee (R) 23.2%

State Attorney General
Rob McKenna (R) 54.2%
John Ladenburg (D) 45.8%

Commissioner of Public Lands
Peter Goldmark (D) 55.5%
Doug Sutherland (R) 44.5%

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Randy Dorn 40.3%
Terry Bergeson 39.7%
Enid Duncan 7.2%
John Patterson Blair 5.9%
Don Hansler 5.9%

Insurance Commissioner
Mike Kriedler (D) 67.2%
John Adams (R) 23.9%
Curtis Fackler (NP) 9.0%

State Rep Pos. 1
Kathy Haigh (D) 70.9%
Marco Brown (R) 16.6%
Brad Gehring (R) 12.6%

State Rep Pos. 2
Fred Finn (D) 59.7%
Randy Neatherlin (R) 21.8%
Darryl Daugs (D) 13.3%
Herb Baze (R) 5.2%

SC Pos. 3
Mary Fairhurst 64.3%
Michael J. Bond 35.7%

SC Pos. 4
Charles Johnson 62.4%
James Beecher 29.1%
Frank Vulliet 8.5%

COP Div 2 Dis 2 Pos 1
Robin Hunt 66.7%
Tim Ford 33.3%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 3
Carol Murphy 56.2%
Charles Williams 43.8%

Thurston Superior Court Pos 7
Gary Tabor 71.6%
Ed Holm 28.4%

[Alcon]

I did a little academic exercise and took the PCO results where there were just a D vs. R, in Kitsap County.  I eliminated rates where one of the candidates was a public figure, which always brings more votes for them.

The result: pretty much identical to 2004, very slightly more Dem.  Same deal in Okanogan County.

So, basically, the superior Dem turnout thing didn't seem to be in play.  In fact, Dem turnout may have been lower -- and that's not even adjusting for low-ish turnout in King County.

I wouldn't bet on Goldmark, but I think he definitely stands a chance.  He's also likely to benefit from Obama on-ticket.  He seems like that kind of candidate.

[Alcon]

Gregoire didn't do so well among downscale, non-elderly voters.  I have a list of selected trailer park precincts statewide.  Together, she did only like 5-10 percentage points better in margin than Osgood.  In a few, she lost while Osgood won (ouch).

Cowlitz County is probably the most "downscale" county in Washington state.  Looking at the precinct results, it looks like Gregoire's weakness among downscale Democrats hurt her, here.  She fell virtually everywhere, save for a middle-class pocket of Longview around Sacajawea Park, and the suburbanizing Mt. Solo area.

As for Island -- locally anemic turnout has a lot to do with it.  Oak Harbor has a fairly transient population base.  Inactive voter rates are rather high there.  Turnout vs. 2004 was 53% in Oak Harbor, compared to 63% countywide.  That couldn't help the GOP, especially considering transient voters are more likely to be military.  Whatever the case may be, Gregoire improved fairly dramatically vis-a-vis Kerry around Oak Harbor.  Of the 17 Island County precincts where Gregoire outpaced him by 4% or more, 15 were in the Oak Harbor area.

[Alcon]

Did Osgood win Waldron?

Yeah.  Osgood 40, Reed 12, Montgomery 5, Greene 1.  That's the best a Republican has ever done on Waldron.  Waldron has one family of three reliable Republicans, a few staunch Democrats who will vote for Reed, and then everyone else are just massive Democratic hacks. I'm surprised Montgomery got 5.  I doubt they had any idea of what the Constitution Party is.

Osgood also won Langley, Nespelem and Port Townsend.  He probably carried some others (Index, Elmer City, and the Mexican towns in Yakima County would be good bets), too.

The Seattle results are funny.  Osgood barely won Capitol Hill -- in fact, he had to make up for a deficit in the 15th Avenue area down around Broadway.  That is really and truly pathetic.  Interesting race, though.  We got to see what are the truly hackish Democratic parts of Seattle, and they're not totally what I expected.

[Alcon]

State Auditor: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=11&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Any chance Sonntag will ever run for Governor?

Can't wait to vote for him.

I know the Constitution Party was helping a bit more this time and all, but it's kind of depressing that Will Baker could manage to get an almost identical map.

[Alcon]

and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.

I really feel bad for all of the local Dem officials who had to pretend that wasn't the bullsh**ttiest bullsh**t in the history of bullsh**t.

[Alcon]

Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

It doesn't seem as if McKenna is interested in winning his party's 2012 nomination for governor.

Or, alternatively, is very interested in winning the 2012 General Election.

Rossi losing ain't necessarily bad news for him, and few Republicans are probably going to care about that linked thing.

[Alcon]

Someone asked me to send them Secretary of State Massacre results a bit back, but I honestly forget who.  So, I'm posting them here.

Here are the towns Osgood carried:

1. Nespelem, Okanogan County: 59-24 Osgood
2. Bingen, Klickitat County: 63-28 Osgood
3. Mabton, Yakima County: 59-29 Osgood
4. Port Townsend, Jefferson County: 56-37 Osgood
5. Wilkeson, Pierce County: 48-40 Osgood
6. Ruston, Pierce County: 51-44 Osgood
7. Langley, Island County: 50-43 Osgood
8. Wapato, Yakima County: 48-41 Osgood
9. Index, Snohomish County: 47-43 Osgood
10. La Conner, Skagit County: 48-45 Osgood
11. White Salmon, Klickitat County: 49-47 Osgood
12. Toppenish, Yakima County: 45-44 Osgood
13. Elmer City, Okanogan County: 45-44 Osgood
14. Granger, Yakima County: 44-43 Osgood

Basically:

Ethnic villages - Hispanic (3, 8, 12, 14) and Native American (1)

Working-class areas with Dem heritage - 2, 5, 6, 11 (Osgood did semi-OK in this type of place, yay straight ticket voting)

Hippieland - 4, 7, 10

<5% margins in Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, Coulee Dam, Kelso, Roslyn, Seattle, Skykomish and Winthrop.  Latah also counts, at 41-37, but the 37% is Montgomery (Osgood didn't break 20%)

---

Hope that's what you were looking for, Whoever.

[Alcon]

How many votes were there in Latah?

46 - Reed 19, Montgomery 17, Osgood 9, Greene 1

Osgood also placed third in the towns of George (43 votes), Lamont (63 including surrounding rural) and Waverly (25).

He won all congressional districts (the 7th was 49-46), and all LDs but the 37th.

Relatedly, these results really make it clear where Gregoire's hurting.  Osgood actually overperformed Gregoire in nine towns -- Almira, Hamilton, Kettle Falls, Mesa, Northport, Riverside, Roy, Wilkeson.  Of those, only Kettle Falls had more than 100 voters (383).  Still, more dangerously, there were a lot of places where Gregoire just barely outperformed Osgood, including parts of the Cowlitz, the Yakima Valley, the basin land of Central Washington, etc.  Unlike those little towns, those places have population and also are microcosms of really important demographics.

Her 2004 problem with affluent suburbanites has turned to a problem with culturally conservative small-town voters (and Hispanics), including some normally straight-ticket ones.  This is why I personally think the stem cell ads were dumb -- that type of voter is really, really queasy about cultural issues.  Cowlitz County specifically h8s anything that could possibly be construed as abortion/suicide/whatever

I know she's trying to pad her margins in the suburbs, but I think that was a disasterous way of doing it.  My two cents.

[Alcon]

  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.

[Alcon]

  He's also almost not white.  The Barack Obama of Washington state!  For real.

Because he's part Eskimo and Italian? Ok...

Around here, that counts as almost not white.  He also has a funny name.  He's a foreigner, but we're tolerant of that.

Just for the record (for those not aware that you're joking) - He's not a foreigner.

I'm not sure we can believe a man with so many foreigners in his signature.

Rossi's also part Native American, not "Eskimo," which is an offensive term.

Please take your racism and leave our topic.

[Alcon]

Turnout:

King................15%
Pierce..............10.5%*
Snohomish...........10.5% (without Oct. 23 numbers)
Spokane.............21%
Clark...............16%
Yakima..............22%
Kittitas............23%

* - Likely lags due to RCV

[Alcon]

UW poll, 10/18-26, 600 RV

Obama 55%, McCain 34%

Gregoire 51%, Rossi 46%

Initiative 1000 ("Death with Dignity") leads 56% to 38%

Initiative 985 (Eyman's congestion thing) leads 45% to 43%

Initiative 1029 (SEIU's homecare training thing) leads 65% to 20% (which may be the best-performing initiative I ever vote 'no' on)

Sound Transit proposition (what's the sample size on that?) leads 50% to 43%

The UW poll actually did kind of OK in 2006, better than I expected.  It predicted the initiatives fairly well.  I think we can pretty clearly say that I-1000 is passing, I-1029 is passing, and I-985 is a toss-up.

[Alcon]

To answer my own rhetorical question, +/-6.7%.  lol.

Yeah, I get the impression that people think I-1029 sounds good (which it does) and the only voters who are going "no" are the staunch anti-government types, always-vote-noers, and the few people who read newspapers enough to know how badly it will screw over folks with autistic kids.  Bleh.

I'm also a little disappointed that Eyman's thing is passing in a poll with a pretty clear left-ward tilt.  If Prop. 1 fails and that passes, I may have to get out the punching pillow.

[Alcon]

Seattle Times endorsed McCraw. I'm starting to worry a little about Owen...

Based on what the Lt. Governor actually does, McCraw would probably be further to the left than Owen...unless she became Gov, then different story.  I doubt it will be competitive, but I do think it will be closer than expected.  Still, Owen was just totally crushing her in a previous poll, so...

Bergeson/Dorn voters don't seem to have much political correlation (other than far-righters for Dorn as an anti-Bergeson vote maybe) but it does sure have another:  the less establishment (in candidate, and vote frequency, speed and turnout, too), the much more likely a Dorn vote.

I find it interesting how awful McKenna is crushing Ladenburg (I expected that to tighten), and that Dorn seems to be polling ahead in several polls now.  Also kind of happy to see I-985 sucking, although I think initiative polling is always a dangerous game.  Wish there were a State Treaz poll.

[Alcon]

How is Proposition 1 (aka, Sound Transit expansion) faring in the polls right now? 

Generally passing, but we haven't had a reliable one in a while.

Now, confirmation that Gregoire has a youth problem:  Rossi leads 51% to 49% among K-12 students.  Obama is ahead 61% to 33%.  ()

[Alcon]

The second wave of the UW poll is out.  It has only 387 respondents so it sucks, but a much better poll for the GOP.

Obama 51% (-4)
McCain 39% (+5)

Gregoire 50% (-1)
Rossi 48% (+3)

I-985:
Yes 40% (-5)
No 55% (+12)

I-1000:
Yes 53% (-3)
No 48% (+5)

I-1029:
Yes 60% (-5)
No 26% (+6)

Proposition 1 (which must have a hilariously insane MoE):

Yes 41% (-9)
No 49% (+6)

My guess is that combining the two polls gets you one, mediocre one of 987 RV's:

Obama 53%
McCain 36%
Other 5%

Gregoire 51%
Rossi 46%

I-985:
Yes 43%
No 48%

I-1000:
Yes 55%
No 40%

I-1029:
Yes 63%
No 22%

Prop. 1 (still ridiculous MoE):

Yes 46%
No 45%

Btw, GOP is closing the balloting gap here, unlike Oregon.  My bet is now that we'll be closer Presidentially then.

[Alcon]

New SUSA:

Obama 56% (nc)
McCain 40% (+1)
Early: Obama +19

Gregoire 52% (+2)
Rossi 46% (-2)
Early: Gregoire +8

McKenna 59% (+2)
Ladenburg 36% (nc)
Early: McKenna +23

Dorn 45% (+2)
Bergeson 37% (-1)
Early: Dorn +7

Sutherland 48% (+2)
Goldmark 42% (-1)
Early: Sutherland +5

I-985 (Congestion)
No 45% (+3)
Yes 33% (+4)
Early: No +13

I-1000 (Death with Dignity)
Yes 55% (+1)
No 40% (+3)
Early: Yes +19

AG was really the race that didn't happen this year.  Wish they polled State Treasurer instead.

Nice how 15% of those who have already voted are undecided on I-985.

[Alcon]

Note that later ballots are more likely to be GOP, if history follows.  Either way, Democrats had a pretty amazing year all-around, and in Snohomish County especially.  The biggest swing was not in Okanogan County, surprisingly.  It was Lewis County.  Who would have expected?

President
Obama murdered in the Seattle suburbs.  Other than some mixed results among really low-scale voters in Eastern Washington, this was just a blowout.



Governor
Well, I was right that Gregoire would do pretty badly among low-scale union workers.  On the other hand, she out-performed every other single group.  She may end up beating Kerry.  Who would have guessed?



Lt. Governor
Were people seriously worried about this race?  The only demographic where McCraw is going to under-perform is among regular Stranger readers.  So, maybe Cap Hill.  Maybe.  In all seriousness, he did under-perform his margin a bit in King County, and I think a few voters went McCraw on social issues.  Otherwise, murder.



Secretary of State
Reed underperformed in the Portland media market, as he's inclined to do.  But more than anything, he under-performed a little everywhere.  Certainly no 2-to-1.



State Treasurer
This is a pretty unexceptional map.  Just two basic notes.  McIntire was very close in a lot of bigger counties (Clallam, Skagit, Spokane).  Also, Martin definitely won a lot of those governmental types who let Reed win Thurston 2-to-1, but not nearly enough.  Democrats are likely to retain.



Attorney General
Could someone please, please explain to me how Jason Osgood out-performed John Ladenburg?  Please.



Superintendent of Public Instruction
This is a pretty damn boring map.  The primary made it look like we might see some geographical distinctions.  They're still around a bit -- Dorn did well around Wenatchee and the Tri-Cities -- but things regressed to the mean.  The most extreme result was 57.8% for Dorn in Benton.  It'll take until precinct results before I know if there's any real pattern here.



Insurance Commissioner
Boring and predictable map, but Okanogan being red here says a lot about demographic changes in that county.