Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Apparently there are rumors that Gregoire could possibly be under consideration for the Supreme Court position. Personally I would like the national attention but in reality it would be horrible to have Owens as our governor. He would replace Gregoire if she left, right?

Oh, I saw something about that, too. Highly doubt it will happen, though.

But yes, Owens would become Governor under such circumstances.

[bgwah]

Just how conservative is Lt. Gov. Brad Owens?  I always heard him talked about as a 'conservative Democrat', but what does that really mean in Washington state's context?  Is this primarily in reference to being 'pro-business', or what?

Eh, he's probably best known for opposing medical marijuana.

But personally, I think the dislike for Owen has less to do with his supposed conservatism and much more with his rampant douchebaggery, but that's just  me.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/otherlocalelectionstories/2008312163_owen26m.html

"He's been traveling around the state with his idiotic rock band, torturing middle-schoolers and high-schoolers"

[bgwah]

Um, so news!

Larry Stickney's group has filed an initiative to repeal the domestic partnership law.  Apparently, Pastor Joe Fuiten is already getting queasy after seeing some allegedly terrible polling numbers.  At this point, many social conservatives are hoping this thing doesn't make the ballot.  It's a hopeless cause.  I haven't seen a public poll, but I've heard things as bad as 2-to-1.

Fred Jarrett's campaign has released a poll for King County Executive:

Undecided 59%
Hutchison 20% ("Hutchinson" in the poll text, ouch)
Jarrett 7%
Constantine 6%
Phillips 5%
Hunter 3%

's all I got.

Do you think her 20%  is primarily because she has name recognition from being on TV?

Although, I suppose the vote not being split 4 ways like the Democrats probably also helps, too.

[bgwah]

^eh, Chris Vance was a King County Councilman when he ran against Smith (in 2000 I think), or at least had been one recently IIRC. Still only got 35% of the vote, though! haha.

[bgwah]

Krist Novoselic is running for Wahkiakum County Clerk. "Prefers Grange Party"

I wish he had challenged Owen. Oh well, perhaps he (correctly) figures he needs to start small for anyone to take him seriously.

[bgwah]

It's alright I suppose. I wish we had 2010 numbers to play with!

Here's a 9 district map I made yesterday:

[bgwah]

It's a Democratic gerrymander, of course. It's intended to have 8 Democrats and 1 Republican (in the red district).

[bgwah]

Uh, huh:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24aea2b0-ebf6-4c88-bcc8-0d8f5f8bc1b0

Hutchison 41%
Constantine 12%
Phillips 7%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 4%
Goodspaceguy 3%
Lippmann 2%
Lobdell 2%
Undecided 23%

Way to go on this one, King County Democrats.

In other news: Will anyone really miss Kent?

That is incredibly disturbing.

I still haven't decided who I will vote for in the primary, though I suspect it will be one of the Eastsiders.

[bgwah]

I really have no idea who to support.

I'll probably go with the most pro-transit, anti-sprawl, pro-density environmentalist candidate. I just haven't determined who that is yet...

[bgwah]

Seattle poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9b5e3974-aa50-4f8f-a325-b1109b0e187a

Mayor
24% Nickels
15% Drago
14% Donaldson

Bag Tax
47% Yes
46% No

I'm rooting for Nickels at the moment... In other interesting news, 12% of Seattleites consider themselves Republicans. GTFO, plz.

[bgwah]

Washington hasn't elected a Democrat Secretary of State since 1960. Weird...

Are you looking at those pages I made on the Wiki?

Well, we haven't elected a Republican State Auditor since 1928... so we win.

[bgwah]

Seattle and King County are both going to have really interesting primaries.

I'm still undecided on King County Executive.

[bgwah]

Yes, of course.

I suspect the Democrats will split the vote enough in King County to let Hutchison win most precincts, though a Democrats-only primary map would be very interesting. All four of them have their own "home districts" that they would at least do well in, I imagine.

[bgwah]

I was looking through the voter's pamphlet. HUTCHISON LIKES TO USE CAPS LOCK.

Anyone else think it's interesting that Republicans didn't think a U.S. Senator was qualified to be President, but that some newscaster is qualified to run a county of nearly two million people?

It's looking like Constantine will get the second spot in the general, I think. Though I like that Ross Hunter mentioned transit-oriented development in the pamphlet, so I might have to vote for him.

[bgwah]

The Stranger's endorsement of McGinn certainly makes things more interesting.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2009621555_hutchison08m.html

Nice to see the media finally showing Hutchison for the demented psychopath she is.

[bgwah]

Was that SUSA poll taken before or after The Stranger's endorsement of McGinn?

And, if you guys remember, polling also showed Irons close to winning in 2005. Of course Sims won with a comfortable margin in the end. The Seattle Times article is just the beginning, there are three months left for everyone to realize what a crazy Hutchison is.

[bgwah]

Seems to be in line with other polls.

It looks like Dow Constantine will be the next King County executive.

Nickels looks likely to make it to the general election, with McGinn and Mallahan battling it out for the second spot... Would be interesting either way. Nickels would be the more liberal candidate against Mallahan and the more conservative against McGinn, IMO.

Alcon, why don't we have Seattle mayor maps for past elections? Primaries and generals? Hmm!??!?!

[bgwah]

I can't wait for the bag tax map! Should serve as a good guide for what areas need to be cut out of the city.

[bgwah]

Why are you making school board predictions? Do you really need elections that badly?

lol

Seattle and King County actually have some really interesting races, in my opinion... ~1.5 hours until the first results come in!

I realize Constantine has this in the bag, but I voted for Ross Hunter because I like him best. Hopefully Hunter or Jarrett will get the message and run for f**king Congress, though.

As for the general, I personally don't see how Hutchison can win. The Democrats will unite behind Constantine and he'll at worst get somewhere in the mid-50s. This is King County after all, and even with a well-known local celebrity pretending to be an independent, an Idaho-esque candidate isn't going to win here.

I'm thinking Nickels and Mallahan will move onto the general in Seattle, but I wouldn't be surprised if McGinn got the #2 spot. I think Mallahan would probably have a floor in the mid-40s, simply being from being the generic anti-Nickels candidate (and that's all he is). Nickels would probably have a better chance against McGinn, as I suspect McGinn is too much of a lefty to do well among the more conservative and Republican voters in Seattle, who make up ~15-20% of the electorate (more than enough to swing the election).

[bgwah]

Grant holding on in the 16th LD at 46%.

The 15th LD, despite voting for Obama, is giving 66% to the Rethug.

The 9th LD is crazier than usual, giving 73% to the Rethug candidates.

[bgwah]

Nickels fell further behind... Bag tax is up to 43%. Stupid Seattle.

Hutchison also dropped to 35.92%

[bgwah]

It looks like Nickels may concede tomorrow morning. I feel sorry for the guy.

Wonder what Joe Mallahan is going to base his campaign off of now. His message thus far has just been "I'm not Greg Nickels and he sucks".

How about "I'm not Mike McGinn and he sucks"

[bgwah]

Hutchison continues to fall, she's now at 33.27% with Constantine creeping up at 26.72%.

McGinn is unfortunately back in the lead for Mayor...

27.60% McGinn
27.01% Mallahan
25.42% Nickels

[bgwah]

Woohoo! This was a nice surprise. I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE Nickels.

Good riddance you worthless sack of crap.

Nickels is one of the best Mayors on urban issues in the entire country.

His loss is a victory for suburb-lovers everywhere.