Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist.

[Badger]

Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist.

The difference is we're right.

[bgwah]

Hey, Tacoma area?  Getting optimistic about your housing market again?  Suck this!

http://www.thenewstribune.com/topstory/story/919317.html

Eww, maybe I should be glad Ladenburg lost.

Is this how Republicans feel about Obama? We think Hutchison is an unqualified crazy closet-creationist, while they think he is an unqualified crazy closet-socialist.

The difference is we're right.

I agree.

[Holmes]

"That particular group of judges saw the law one way; we'll take it to the next group of judges that may have the opportunity to see it the correct way," said Stephen Pidgeon, attorney for the conservative religious organization.

Is it November 4th yet? At least opposition in Maine acts tame towards same-sex couples in public.

[Meeker]

The News Tribune continues to surprise me by endorsing "No" on the IRV repeal.

[CultureKing]

"That particular group of judges saw the law one way; we'll take it to the next group of judges that may have the opportunity to see it the correct way," said Stephen Pidgeon, attorney for the conservative religious organization.

Is it November 4th yet? At least opposition in Maine acts tame towards same-sex couples in public.

We here in Washington have very, very conservative republicans. Which always feels odd considering how we are viewed politically by people from outside the state. Remember: this is where Glenn Beck came from. It is also why the state republican party has imploded over the last 10 years or so...

[Meeker]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

More please

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

More please

This is my rebuttal. Both are great.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VRllXxsRoo

Guys, I'm showing this to my childhood professor on Thursday. I can't wait to see what he says.

[Meeker]

According to SwingStateProject, here's the guy the GOP is likely going to have running against Murray: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181621.asp

You really don't need to click the link to get an impression of how much of a threat this guy is. Just look at his picture:

[Alcon]

According to SwingStateProject, here's the guy the GOP is likely going to have running against Murray: http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/181621.asp

You really don't need to click the link to get an impression of how much of a threat this guy is. Just look at his picture:

Spotty voting record, no name recognition, apparently best known for creating a Facebook group.

Shoo-in.

[Ogre Mage]

I suspect 2010 will be a quiet year for elections in Washington state, especially compared to the barn burners we had in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  For me the biggest drama is whether Murray will manage to crack 60%.  Running against her could be generously described as an attempt to increase name recognition for future races.  

[Alcon]

SUSA, Seattle mayor (link):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.

[Alcon]

Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yikes.

[Meeker]

SUSA, Seattle mayor (link):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.

Most of those I can see, but I wonder why McGinn would lead amongst Asians. Yes, yes, sub-sample MoE and such, but still...

[bgwah]

Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yikes.

The Washington GOP is disgusting.

[bgwah]

SUSA, Seattle mayor (link):

Mallahan 43%
McGinn 36%

Among those who have already voted or who are complete liars (19%), Mallahan leads 48-44.

Mallahan, oddly, leads among all groups except for the young, liberals, non-college graduates, the working-class and Asians.

I suspect the precinct map for this will look pretty similar to the bag tax map.

[Alcon]

Yeah, me too, although McGinn isn't going to get murdered in Southeast Seattle that way.

Moneys update:

Approve R-71
Raised: $1,822,785.68
Spent: $1,319,544.23
Percent remaining: 27.61%

Raised since last update: $559,273.04
Share of recent funds: 79.58%

Remaining: $503,241.45
Share of remaining funds: 83.42%

Reject R-71
Raised: $403,695.66
Spent: $303,655.13
Percent remaining: 24.78%

Raised since last update: $143,540.20
Share of recent funds: 20.42%

Remaining: $100,040.53
Share of remaining funds: 16.58%

***

Yes on I-1033
Raised: $670,171.15
Spent: $634,783.20
Percent remaining: 5.28%

Remaining: $35,387.95
Share of remaining funds: 1.76%

No on I-1033
Raised: $3,384,494.87
Spent: $1,407,053.24
Percent remaining: 58.43%

Remaining: $1,977,441.63
Share of remaining funds: 98.24%

[Ogre Mage]

Ladies and gentlemen, Sen. Val Stevens' latest email to Reject 71 supporters.  Highlights:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on Jim West and Richard Curtis, I thought closeted gay politicians who crusade against gay rights while secretly engaging in unethical behavior had already used the WA GOP as a means to "take control" and "push their depraved lifestyle." 

Val Stevens is a classic example of the far-right extremism and (hypocritical) fear-mongering of the Republican Party in this state.

[Meeker]

Yea, Val Stevens is a nutcase.

[Alcon]

Reject team wants to keep small donors a secret and lift the $5,000k lid.  It's basically a tacit admission that they kind of botched fundraising, as far as I can tell.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010119481_webref71suit22m.html

[bgwah]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c&feature=player_embedded

epic

[Alcon]

Semi-useless internal polling:

Constantine's camp says he's up 47-40.  Who knows if that's a lie.

Approve Referendum 71 camp says their lead is up to 53-36 Approve, and it's the same poll they use internally, so whatever.

[CultureKing]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hos_uIKwC-c&feature=player_embedded

epic

I like how the simulated earthquake was only a bit worse than the 2001 Nisqually Earthquake in order to get that effect. The viaduct is a death trap.

[Meeker]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2009/10/27/homophobes-probably-arent-in-the-colbert-reports-demographic/

I like how Joe Turner just out and out calls the Reject 71 folks homophobes. God I'm going to miss that man.

[Alcon]

The University of Washington's Washington Poll is out.  The full sample is 724 RVs, but I'm doing LVs instead.

Referendum 71
Approve 57%
Reject 38%

Initiative 1033
Yes 40%
No 49%

And the crappy King County and City of Seattle oversample results:

Mayor of Seattle
Mallahan 44%
McGinn 36%

King County Executive
Constantine 47%
Hutchison 34%

And some Approve-Disapprove numbers (whether oversample or not):

Nickels: 40-50
Obama: 52-40
Gregoire: 48-43
State legislature: 48-42 (?!)
Congress: 47-44 (?!?!?!)

Great news for liberals all around, but any poll that shows Congress with net approval should probably be ignored.