Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Ogre Mage]

And Baumgartner likely will only get owned even harder in the general given his recent actions.

I like that he challenged Cantwell, a sitting senator, to 38 debates.

Ha ha here's a link:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/29/michael-baumgartner-cussed-reporter_n_1840068.html

I like how that TV reporter Jasmine Bailey said that Baumgartner is "locked in heated race with Maria Cantwell."  Lol, that is not how I would describe the state of the race.  The only heated thing is the hot mess of the Baumgartner campaign.

[Ogre Mage]

Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

In terms of the Democrats in Washington State's congressional delegation, I would say there is a clear liberal tilt on social and environmental policy, probably stronger than the average national Democrat.  Washington is arguably the most trade dependent state in the nation.  For that reason, Democratic politicians here are very pro-free trade, which sets them apart from more protectionist sectors in the party.

On a somewhat related note, many liberal Democrats across the country criticize China on human rights, civil liberties, etc.  You'll see little of that from Democratic politicians here, who have spent decades (as far back as the 1960s) advocating for China (and Asia in general) as a trade partner.  Gov. Gregoire has definitely continued that tradition and I expect Inslee or McKenna will as well.  The political and business leadership (Microsoft, Boeing, Starbucks, etc.) in Washington lays down the red carpet when the Chinese President comes visiting, which I suspect you would not see elsewhere.

Washington State is something of a beacon for female politicians.  It was the first state to have women serving in the Governor's Mansion and both U.S. Senate seats simultaneously.  The percentage of women serving in the state legislature has been ranked among the Top 5 states for many years.

[Ogre Mage]

Reagan Dunn is done and Baumgartner's massive defeat is a given.  If McKenna also loses and R-74 is approved, the WA GOP would receive an a$$ whipping of historic proportions.  I'm not too concerned about the Eyman initiative for the reason stated by Meeker.

[Ogre Mage]

PDC complaint targets Kathleen Drew's husband:

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http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/21/2259671/pdc-complaint-targets-thurston.html

Steven Drew response: http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/24/2262514/assessor-steven-drew-says-he-spoke.html

We'll see if this story has legs.  Right now it is just a he said/she said story.  It will be interesting to see if Wyman tries to use it as an issue attack.

[Ogre Mage]

You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

Inslee won the primary 47-43.  Most notably, McKenna got 34% in King County.  That is awful.  Any political analyst/writer in Washington will say a candidate cannot win statewide with King County numbers like that.   Inslee has led every poll I've seen since late July.

This Danny Westneat column might be instructive:

http://seattletimes.com/html/dannywestneat/2018947176_danny19.html

[Ogre Mage]

I'm somewhat shocked by this -- the Spokane Spokesman-Review editorialized in favor of both I-502 and R-74.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/02/editorial-regulation-taxation-of-marijuana-worth/

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/sep/16/editorial-editorial-affirm-r-74-because-state-has/

I'm increasingly optimistic both will pass.

[Ogre Mage]

The Seattle Times plans an independent expenditure of $75,750 for Rob McKenna and $75,000 to help get a yes vote on R-74.

http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html

While it is unlikely this will have a significant effect on the election, it strikes me as unethical and  hackish.  The Blethens are making life hard for their politics and news staff, because now their work is going to be seen as compromised, especially on anything related to these issues.  How is anyone supposed to believe what appears in print there when the paper has such a large financial investment on one side of the fence?

[Ogre Mage]

The Seattle Times plans an independent expenditure of $75,750 for Rob McKenna and $75,000 to help get a yes vote on R-74.

http://www.nwcn.com/news/politics/174888741.html

While it is unlikely this will have a significant effect on the election, it strikes me as unethical and  hackish.  The Blethens are making life hard for their politics and news staff, because now their work is going to be seen as compromised, especially on anything related to these issues.  How is anyone supposed to believe what appears in print there when the paper has such a large financial investment on one side of the fence?

I know this may sound dumb/crazy, but why do people see this as so ridiculously different from an endorsement?

I would say that there is a big difference between merely endorsing a candidate, which is what many papers do -- and investing a (large) sum of money in a candidate, an action I have never seen by a major newspaper before.  It is impossible to avoid the appearance of a conflict of interest when you have such big financial investment at stake.  It's going to be very hard to look at any story about Inslee or McKenna in the Times (or the failure to cover certain things about them) without wondering if the paper was simply motivated by wanting to make good on its investment.  For an organization which claims to be an independent, third party source of journalism, this is very damaging to its credibility.  If other papers were to follow the Seattle Times down this rabbit hole, then it will give the appearance that the news we read is merely the mouthpiece of political campaigns. 

[Ogre Mage]

The cost of the ads they are running is being reported in the WA PDC as an independent expenditure for Rob McKenna, that is what I would consider it to be.

[Ogre Mage]

Anyone care to persuade me on Auditor or AG?

Reagan Dunn strongly supported AG Rob McKenna's decision to join the national lawsuit to overturn the President's Health Care Reform Act.  Bob Ferguson opposed McKenna's decision.

http://www.q13fox.com/news/politics/CRsTake/kcpq-are-the-state-attorney-general-candidates-more-similar-than-different-20120608,0,1691254.story

[Ogre Mage]

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019526374_truthneedle26m.html

This is just silly.

Susan Kelleher and Linda Shaw were two of the 100+ Seattle Times employees who signed the letter of protest to their executive management.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/10/19/a-partly-deciphered-list-of-seattle-times-protest-letter-signers

[Ogre Mage]

Michael Baumgartner has really bottomed out -- even his home city paper endorsed Cantwell.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/25/editorial-cantwell-represents-state-well-in-us/

[Ogre Mage]

Newest PPP poll has Inslee leading 49-46, Obama leading 54-44

PPP has the same governor numbers as the latest UW poll, with Inslee ahead 49-46.  Survey USA had Inslee only at 47%, but all three polls had McKenna stuck at 46%.  Has he hit his ceiling?  The odds favor Inslee but there certainly remains a substantial chance of a McKenna victory.

[Ogre Mage]

(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?

There may be some truth to that.  The recent UW poll had marijuana legalization failing in Eastern Washington by a fairly narrow margin 45/49.  Same sex marriage was losing by a more decisive 43/52.

[Ogre Mage]

It's official -- voters have approved same-sex marriage in Washington.  Let the weddings begin.

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019639905_apusgaymarriage.html

The SoS race between Wyman and Drew is incredibly close.  What do people think will happen?  Wyman may be the sole Republican to win statewide office.

[Ogre Mage]

McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html

[Ogre Mage]

Hello all.  I'm fairly new to the forums.  I guess I'm the only Washingtonian here from Clark County.  Jaime Herrera Beutler is my House Rep, though I never voted for her.

Back in 2010 when this was an open seat Denny Heck and her were in a tight race for this seat.  Super pacs pumped a lot of money into the Portland TV market with negative ads against Denny Heck which gave Herrera Beutler the seat.

The redistricting for the 2012 election has had more impact on WA-3 than I think any other district in the state.  WA-3 is now much smaller geographically and includes a section of the Columbia River east of Clark County (a former portion of Doc Hasting's district).  WA-3 used to be a swing district with the liberal Olympia suburbs in the north offset by the more conservative Clark County to the south.  Now it's a pretty conservative district overall.

Herrera Beutler has always come across as very fake to me.  Her smile seems too forced and too fake.  Her record doesn't thrill me either. 

Considering WA-3's demographics, Herrera Beutler is probably going to be there for a while unless something happens like the entire country suddenly has a big political shift, or she gets run out in some scandal.
Bill

Welcome to the forums!  I used to be in Herrera-Beutler's district so I feel your pain.  She's not blatantly offensive in an Allen West or Michele Bachmann way, but she is a GOP drone.  I agree that in the newly redrawn WA-03, she is safe barring a Democratic wave or scandal.

[Ogre Mage]

The Washington Post profiles Patty Murray.  The general theme is that she is very influential in the Senate.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/patty-murray-will-be-key-voice-in-senate-on-budget-deal/2012/11/23/d02a5a02-300d-11e2-a30e-5ca76eeec857_story.html

[Ogre Mage]

Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.

[Ogre Mage]

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nancy-lanza-had-considered-moving-with-her-son-to-wash-state-friend-says/2012/12/16/9c9da4b6-47f3-11e2-ad54-580638ede391_story.html

I feel bad for the people of Newton, but thank goodness for us Mrs. Lanza did not do this.

[Ogre Mage]

There seems to be very little ideological difference between Murray and McGinn (not unusual for a Seattle race).  It may largely come down to a contrast in leadership style -- McGinn is marketing himself as a progressive fighter, while Murray says he is a consensus builder.  And McGinn will get attacked as a bomb-thrower, while Murray will be painted as a tool of the Seattle establishment.

It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the Whole Foods curveball that McGinn threw into the race will have.  Did that help gin up support for McGinn in the primary?  I think Murray came out the loser in that exchange because he wound up looking like a hypocrite -- never a good place to be.  Still, I think Murray is modestly favored to win.  It seems like McGinn has just made too many enemies.

[Ogre Mage]

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is implicated in ethics scandal by former aide:

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2014/sep/08/former-mcmorris-rodgers-aide-says-scandal-investigation-expanding/

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/09/08/former-aide-for-cathy-mcmorris-rodgers-breaks-silence-on-ethics-case/

[Ogre Mage]

Interestingly, Heck has said that he intends to stand down if Inslee is appointed to an administration position. "I will not stand for election, period." Huh. Idk if I believe that. Maybe he's maneuvering to make it easier for Ferguson or Constantine to win in a subsequent messy field...?

A solid theory.  Locke put the establishment support behind Gregoire and she did the same for Inslee.  He will work out support for the next governor-in-waiting -- if it hasn't been decided already.  And Heck is part and parcel of the WA Democratic Establishment.

[Ogre Mage]

resident washington posters: Do you think Josh Collins has even the slightest possibility of making the top 2?

No.  WA-10 is a moderately Democratic suburban district.  It is not a hard-core progressive district like WA-7.  He's a bad fit and has no experience.

Of the legitimate candidates, his run might be most problematic for State Rep. Beth Doglio.  She represents the Olympia area and I could see Collins siphoning votes from her among the Evergreen State College community.  This may give Kristine Reeves and/or Marilyn Strickland an advantage.

[Ogre Mage]

Huh. I did not even realize Doglio is running! She initially sat it out back in December and only announced last month when, COVID-19 was the only thing on people's minds. That's not a great start to a campaign. I definitely support her over Reeves (I am not a fan of Strickland). She's got the Thurston vote sewn up, which immediately puts her at an advantage. The primary map, come August, is going to be fascinating. Honestly, it would not surprise me to see this end up D-D because none of the Rs are even B-level candidates (none of the five hold any sort of elected position).

Anyway, now that I've gone down the rabbit hole of FEC reports, this is what the reported Q1 fundraising numbers show:

Kristine Reeves (D): $274,058.63 raised, $73,990.58 spent, $200,068.05 COH
Marilyn Strickland (D): $251,651.99 raised, $102,505.05 spent, $149,146.94 COH
Beth Doglio (D): $239,639.00 raised, $20,167.02 spent, $219,471.98 COH
Phil Gardner (D): $108,823.69 raised, $42,667.68 spent, $66,156.01 COH (He's Heck's District Director and is very much rooted locally - from Puyallup/University Place)
Joshua Collins (D): Not yet reporting had 59k COH at end of 2019 Q4

Nancy Slotnick (R): $27,489.00 raised, $23,161.00 spent, $4,523.12 COH - C-level candidate, "fiscal conservative and a social moderate"
Rian Ingrim (R): $625.00 raised, $31.64 spent, $593.36 COH - literal nobody
Ryan Tate (R): $615.00 raised, $69.35 spent, $545.65 COH - literal nobody
Don Hewitt (R): $200.07 raised, $476.23 spent, $1,723.84 COH - literal nobody
Dan Gordon (R): Not yet reporting - but a literal nobody

Thanks for providing those.  Yes, Beth Doglio has a considerable advantage in that she appears to have no real competition for the Thurston County vote.  Indeed, that may have spurred her (somewhat late) entry into the race.  Reeves and Strickland, her strongest competitors, both come from the northeastern part of the district.  Doglio has posted competitive fundraising numbers even though she got a later start than the others.

Joshua Collins was interviewed in The Cooper Point Journal, the student newspaper at Evergreen State College.  It's been two decades since I was a student there but I don't think the politics have changed much.  Being a Democrat at that school made me feel like I was in the conservative party.

http://www.cooperpointjournal.com/2019/06/05/joshua-collins/