Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

What does "split" mean on the Municipality tab? I thought it was cities that were in two counties, but you've got cities that I know aren't (Steilacoom for example).

They also include some unincorporated territory.  A few counties (Clark, Douglas, Pend Oreille and some Pierce) do this.  Annoying and pointless.  One precinct in Clark is split between Camas and Washougal, listed as "Camas city/Washougal city."

[Alcon]

How do they administer municipal elections when parts of the precinct are outside the city limits?

Precinct splits:  127.01, 127.02, 127.03, etc.  That's why we do ballot codes in Pierce County instead of precinct codes on ballots.  At least I think so, never seen a polling place with precincts split between districts.

Now, in light of that, as to why they have those four-vote precincts or whatever...I have no idea.  Wish I knew.  But at least they shouldn't split towns when they do.  That's annoying and stupid.  I don't care about sewer districts.

(Oh, and I just got an email that someone suggested the spreadsheet for the Swing State Project's CD collection efforts.  Pretty cool.  Wonder if that was someone here?  )

[Alcon]

President
Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Seattle - 84.67%
2. Port Townsend - 80.49%
3. Nespelem - 79.37%
4. Index - 79.21%
5. Mabton - 78.79%
6. Bainbridge Island - 77.79%
7. Langley - 77.74%
8. Wapato - 75.32%
9. Toppenish - 75.08%
10. Lake Forest Park - 74.32%

McCain
1. Lamont* - 82.24%
2. Hartline - 74.70%
3. Starbuck - 74.68%
4. Mansfield - 73.41%
5. St. John* - 73.22%
6. LaCrosse* - 72.59%
7. Washtucna - 72.41%
8. Waverly - 72.41%
9. Lind - 72.09%
10. Lynden - 71.47%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Lamont* - 14.02%
2. Starbuck - 22.78%
3. St. John* - 24.05%
4. Waverly - 24.14%
5. Mansfield - 24.28%
6. LaCrosse* - 24.61%
7. Hartline - 25.30%
8. Washtucna - 25.86%
9. Lind - 26.36%
10. Krupp - 26.67%

McCain
1. Seattle - 13.87%
2. Nespelem - 15.87%
3. Port Townsend - 17.55%
4. Index - 19.80%
5. Langley - 20.25%
6. Mabton - 20.54%
7. Bainbridge Island - 20.78%
8. Wapato - 22.63%
9. Toppenish - 23.65%
10. Lake Forest Park - 24.42%

Bigget Vote Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +233,680
2. Tacoma - +27,695
3. Bellingham - +18,989
4. Bellevue - +16,693
5. Shoreline - +13,711
6. Olympia - +12,344
7. Vancouver - +12,000**
8. Spokane - +11,319
9. Renton - +11,277
10. Everett - +10,648

McCain
1. Kennewick - +6,961
2. Richland - +4,959
3. Lynden - +2,909
4. Spokane Valley - +2,859
5. West Richland - +1,886
6. Pasco - +1,562
7. Moses Lake - +1,359
8. Oak Harbor - +1,000
9. Yakima - +998
10. Wenatchee - +897

Bigget Percent Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +70.80%
2. Nespelem - +63.49%
3. Port Townsend - +62.94%
4. Index - +59.41%
5. Mabton - +58.25%
6. Langley - +57.48%
7. Bainbridge Island - +57.01%
8. Wapato - +52.69%
9. Toppenish - +51.43%
10. Lake Forest Park - +51.43%

McCain
1. Lamont* - +68.22%
2. Starbuck - +51.90%
3. Hartline - +49.40%
4. St. John* - +49.17%
5. Mansfield - +49.13%
6. Waverly - +48.28%
7. LaCrosse* - +47.98%
8. Washtucna - +46.55%
9. Lind - +45.74%
10. Lynden - +44.74%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Riverside - +42.37%
2. Rock Island - +34.66%
3. Quincy - +29.97%
4. Creston - +29.80%
5. Hatton - +29.08%
6. Warden - +27.39%
7. Winlock - +26.66%
8. North Bonneville - +26.46%
9. George - +26.44%
10. Toppenish - +26.05%

McCain
1. Starbuck - +31.90%
2. Malden* - +15.41%
3. Krupp - +14.19%
4. Hartline - +13.03%
5. Wilkeson - +6.75%
6. Sprague - +5.91%
7. Metaline Falls* - +4.46%
8. Vader - +4.38%
9. Ilwaco - +3.83%
10. Lind - +2.63%

Governor
Highest Percentage of Vote
Gregoire
1. Nespelem - 92.06%
2. Seattle - 80.21%
3. Port Townsend - 78.85%
4. Langley - 76.20%
5. Index - 73.27%
6. Olympia - 72.45%
7. Bainbridge Island - 72.21%
8. Mabton - 71.38%
9. Bellingham - 69.82%
10. Lake Forest Park - 68.64%

Rossi
1. Lamont* - 80.95%
2. LaCrosse* - 79.81%
3. Mansfield - 77.91%
4. Lynden - 76.57%
5. Endicott* - 75.37%
6. Napavine - 74.82%
7. Prescott - 74.79%
8. Waverly - 74.14%
9. St. John* - 73.60%
10. West Richland - 73.56%

Bigget Margin
Gregoire
1. Seattle - +196,007
2. Tacoma - +20,132
3. Bellingham - +15,305
4. Olympia - +11,298
5. Shoreline - +10,261
6. Spokane - +7,615
7. Vancouver - +7,100**
8. Bellevue - +6,974
9. Bainbridge Island - +6,908
10. Renton - +6,704

Rossi
1. Kennewick - +10,328
2. Richland - +8,609
3. Yakima - +4,193
4. Spokane Valley - +3,512
5. Lynden - +3,437
6. Pasco - +3,320
7. West Richland - +2,622
8. Wenatchee - +2,381
9. Moses Lake - +1,720
10. Sammamish - +1,289

---

* - Split.
** - Estimated, due to splits.

[Alcon]

Among places that cast 1,000 or more votes:

Highest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Seattle - 84.67%
2. Port Townsend - 80.49%
3. Bainbridge Island - 77.79%
4. Toppenish - 75.08%
5. Lake Forest Park - 74.32%
6. Shoreline - 73.24%
7. Bellingham - 73.22%
8. Olympia - 73.21%
9. Tukwila - 71.62%
10. Mountlake Terrace - 68.95%

McCain
1. Lynden - 71.47%
2. West Richland - 65.83%
3. Colfax - 64.33%
4. Kennewick - 62.22%
5. Dayton - 61.35%
6. Moses Lake - 59.69%
7. Liberty Lake - 59.64%
8. Ephrata - 59.58%
9. Richland - 59.53%
10. Selah - 59.02%

Lowest Percentage of Vote
Obama
1. Lynden - 26.73%
2. West Richland - 32.11%
3. Colfax - 33.56%
4. Kennewick - 36.14%
5. Dayton - 36.50%
6. Moses Lake - 37.78%
7. Ephrata - 38.13%
8. Liberty Lake - 38.56%
9. Richland - 38.70%
10. Deer Park - 38.79%

McCain
1. Seattle - 13.87%
2. Port Townsend - 17.55%
3. Bainbridge Island - 20.78%
4. Toppenish - 23.65%
5. Lake Forest Park - 24.42%
6. Olympia - 24.64%
7. Bellingham - 24.85%
8. Shoreline - 25.18%
9. Tukwila - 26.51%
10. Mountlake Terrace - 29.11%

Biggest Percent Margin
Obama
1. Seattle - +70.80%
2. Port Townsend - +62.94%
3. Bainbridge Island - +57.01%
4. Toppenish - +51.43%
5. Lake Forest Park - +49.90%
6. Olympia - +48.58%
7. Bellingham - +48.36%
8. Shoreline - +48.06%
9. Tukwila - +45.11%
10. Mountlake Terrace - +39.84%

McCain
1. Lynden - +44.74%
2. West Richland - +33.72%
3. Colfax - +30.77%
4. Dayton - +24.85%
5. Moses Lake - +21.91%
6. Ephrata - +21.45%
7. Liberty Lake - +21.08%
8. Richland - +20.82%
9. Selah - +20.22%
10. College Place - +19.75%

Biggest Swing
Obama
1. Quincy - +29.97%
2. Toppenish - +26.05%
3. Airway Heights - +24.56%
4. Forks - +23.77%
5. Sammamish - +20.87%
6. White Salmon - +20.86%
7. Cashmere - +18.07%
8. Cheney - +18.06%
9. Oak Harbor - +17.95%
10. Mill Creek - +17.79%

McCain
1. Sequim - -2.97%
2. Kalama - -3.40%
3. Ridgefield - -3.45%
4. Kelso - -3.81%
5. Black Diamond - -4.80%
6. Ocean Shores - -4.91%
7. Edgewood - -4.97%
8. Sumner - -5.73%
9. Milton - -5.81%
10. Auburn - -5.98%

Note: Those are all minus signs, that is, every municipality casting more than 1,000 votes swung to Obama.

Governor
Highest Percentage of Vote
Gregoire
1. Seattle - 80.21%
2. Port Townsend - 78.85%
3. Olympia - 72.45%
4. Bainbridge Island - 72.21%
5. Bellingham - 69.82%
6. Lake Forest Park - 68.64%
7. Tukwila - 68.60%
8. Shoreline - 68.22%
9. Toppenish - 65.48%
10. Friday Harbor - 64.15%

Rossi
1. Lynden - 76.57%
2. West Richland - 73.56%
3. Kennewick - 69.42%
4. Richland - 68.17%
5. Colfax - 66.83%
6. Ephrata - 64.97%
7. Selah - 64.81%
8. Othello - 64.81%
9. Prosser - 64.79%
10. East Wenatchee - 64.20%**

---

** - Estimated due to splits.

[Alcon]

LOL - David Irons filed for Elections Director. So much for the Republicans winning.

Also some guy named Bill Anderson filed. Anyone have any idea who he is?

I think it's the same Bill Anderson who posts on Sound Politics, and maybe the one who used to be on charter review board.  He also apparently lost a Maine Coon.

Probably not an especially serious candidate.

[Alcon]

Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?

[Alcon]

48 hours since the last reply, we can't let that happen!

Franklin:





Obama improved enough to avoid the five R>90s Bush got in '04, inducing a 135-7 slaughter.  North Franklin is the most GOP part of the state.

I think I should be able to do Thurston today, too, which happily coincides with my getting ahold of a privacy-unprotected results file they accidentally made public.  Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.

[Alcon]

Stupid question: Doesn't Sherril Huff live in Bremerton?

More importantly, doesn't MxPx come from Bremerton?

Are those really different questions?

[Alcon]

Apparently when they put a "NOT PUBLIC!" tab in their Excel sheet, they were hoping we'd go on the honors system.

Morons

Oh, I do love my county government. The moment you put a D next to your name is the moment you get elected.

Which is pretty weird, since Thurston seems to have a huge thing for well-liked incumbent state Republicans.  Must be all the government employees...

Then again once they get in it's real damn hard to get rid of them

[Alcon]

What percent of Thurston County residents are state employees?

About a third are government employees of some sort (state being a much higher composition than in most counties), although obviously secondhand political information is probably better all-around there.

But McKenna broke 60% in a walk, and Sutherland carried it by 7%.  So it's a little more than Sam Reed having been County Auditor there before he became SoS.

I've never really understood it, it seems a pretty extreme effect relative to the number of state employees.  It also doesn't seem to always come up unless it's a well-known incumbent (McIntire +2).

[Alcon]

Oh, and could you tell me how the Spokane Reservation votes?

Wellpinit was 80-19 Obama, up from 72-27 Kerry -- not one of the reservation areas where Obama declined, of which there were surprisingly many in WA (latent Clinton support?)

There's a lot more land that's on the rez, but that's really the only Indian precinct.  They (shock of shocks) don't vote much.

[Alcon]

Pierce County has secured itself as being the most analyzed county in the history of the Atlas.

Anyways, the massive Obama love on the bases still confuses me a bit. Did we ever check if something similar occurred on other bases around the country?

Also, what's the difference between Steilacoom and Steilacoom Heights? 451 and 452 vs. 453 and 464?

I think (not at home) it's 451-3 vs. 464.  451-3 (IIRC) are Steilacoom city (split), 464 is totally unincorporated.  I had nowhere else to put it

The same sorts of swings happened at Fairchild in Spokane County, and Trident Naval Base near Bremerton (where the swing was something crazy, like nearly 30 points).  I get the impression it was pretty much universal.

I know essentially nothing about Wilkeson, maybe Meeker does, I've never been there.  It's by Carbonado (which barely swung Obama) and the two rural precincts around Wilkeson/Carbonado were both unchanged or barely McCain swings, I think.  Odd area (especially since Carbonado votes so drastically different from Wilkeson)

[Alcon]

I've been to Bonney Lake, and that's in fact why it's dead to me

I just noticed now that Bremerton 109 is actually a military precinct too -- Jackson Park Naval Reservation, which houses family members stationed at Naval Base Kitsap.

Bush carried it 63%-36%; Obama won it 53%-43%, for an overall swing of 37.58%.

[Alcon]

So, Alcon, did you end up getting Thurston county?

Never sent it, and they're away for the holidays.

I just sent an email to bug a friend for it, we'll see.  Sorry about the delay.  I promise you'll get one in the end.

[Alcon]

Re GH... the thing in the nw is a rez of course (what's it called again, Quinault?) but shouldn't there be a rez in the se corner as well (Chehalis)?

Yeah, which means that the reservation there (a small one granted) has awful turnout, or the rural area around Oakville is quite conservative other than the Indians.  Probably a bit of both.  Blockhouse (the rural Oakville precinct) was Obama +3, while Oakville was only Obama +4.  In 2004, they were were Bush +16 and Bush +5, respectively.  But the rez area is only a few hundred, and the precinct is about 700.

I doubt they're unusually Republican for Indians or anything, I just think they don't make much of a dent in their precinct.

[Alcon]

Wait... which one was Bush by 16?

Blockhouse -> Bush +16 to Obama +3
Oakville city -> Bush +5 to Obama +4

Thurston shapefile from my friend is for 2004 (maybe I'll make a 2004 map!) and I'll have to re-contact the county Monday.

[Alcon]

Well, this is one of my rare total and complete F-ups.  I've been including a massive portion of unincorporated Spokane County as the City of Spokane.

The corrected total for Spokane is:

2004 President: Kerry 50.6%, Bush 47.6% (so it did vote Kerry after all)
2008 President: Obama 56.3%, McCain 41.3%
2008 Governor: Gregoire 55.9%, Rossi 44.1%

The 2004 polling places being named stuff like "FD 4 Sta 44 - Newport Highway" and "Airway Heights Community Center" should have probably been a hint.  I apologize for sucking so much. 

[Alcon]

Since no news is actually happening, random tinkering with returns from Washington state military bases.

In total, 4,230 ballots were cast in military base precincts, up from 4,204 in 2004.

Army
2004: 1,549 ballots; 59-40 Bush
2008: 1,802 ballots; 50-48 Obama
16% turnout increase, Obama swing 21.8%

Air Force
2004: 1,239 ballots; 75-23 Bush
2008: 1,057 ballots; 63-35 McCain
15% turnout decrease, Obama swing 24.0%

Navy
2004: 1,416 ballots; 74-25 Bush
2008: 1,371 ballots; 55-44 McCain
3% turnout decrease, Obama swing 38.1%

So, while McCain bled horribly among all sorts of military voters vs. Bush, his worst losses appear easily to be among Navy voters -- the very branch of service in which he and John Kerry served.  Hah.

Individual base information (2004 results in parentheses, turnout in brackets, Dem swing in red):

Fort Lewis AB (Tacoma): 50-48 Obama (40-59) [+16%] +21.8%

Fairchild AFB (Spokane): 65-34 McCain (21-77) [-10%] +26.0%
McChord AFB (Tacoma): 61-37 McCain (27-72) [-20%] +21.6%

Jackson Park NR (Bremerton): 53-43 Obama (36-63) [-4%] +37.6%
Trident NB (Silverdale): 58-41 McCain (23-76) [-5%] +34.4%
Whidbey NAB (Oak Harbor): 56-42 McCain (22-78) [-2%] +43.0%

OK, now someone think of news that is actually news

[Alcon]

Speak for yourself.  I got a $150 VISA giftcard for Christmas and I'm hiding it so the state legislature and axed WaMu employees can't get to it.

[Alcon]

Bill Grant died yesterday morning.  RIP, by all accounts a good man.

[Alcon]

Postma is actually the sort of candidate that I'm surprised didn't cause a small embarrassment for the GOP.  He isn't super-crazy, but he's one of those people who is convinced that reality is about 3 points further to the political right than it actually is.

I've head that he called Smith "capable" in public and privately said he suspected Smith had "communist leanings," lol.

I think the WAGOP's criteria this year was mostly "non-Paulite."

[Alcon]

So...Sergio Armijo's kid, and some Broadway shop owners, say that Mike Hecht cruises underaged male prostitutes down by Club Silverstone.

Discuss!

http://www.thenewstribune.com/front/topstories/story/591174.html

(I like how the article says that Antique Row is known for prostitution, as if it wasn't all Club Silverstone.  Hot, sexy WWI-era lamps, anyone?)

[Alcon]

I was just thinking, for all the unending corruption in Tacoma, this is the only pure, consenting sex scandal I can remember.

weird.

[Alcon]

We're not too big on the sexual scandals. Or at least we're not public about them.

Or maybe what they say really is true.

Anyways, the slime on the Pierce County Council has just picked Jan "Carbuncles" Shabro to be the next Auditor. I look forward to Katie Blinn crushing her this fall and delivering Shabro her third electoral defeat in four years. Maybe then she'll crawl back under her rock.

Is there any guarantee that she would crush Shabro, though?  Shabro has the name recognition...

Anyway, I thought this little anecdote sums up the next Gubernatorial race well (and, coincidentally, my opinions on Brian Sonntag and Brad Owen):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As for Owen, I still most definitely don't regret voting for the Jewish lady who liked the gays.

[Alcon]

Larry Phillips (D) has announced his intention to run for King County Executive this fall (or should Sims take an Administration job sometime soon as is rumored). It's not 100% clear whether or not Phillips will stay in the race should Sims run again, but considering their less than warm past relationship I would be surprised if Phillips dropped out.

Pretty much everyone who knows Larry Phillips is convinced that, if he doesn't run, it's not deference to Sims but a concession that he'd probably lose.  I think he'd make a race of it, though.

Also, turnout for the Director of Elections race is at 10.6% thus far. I have no idea what equivalent turnout is for any other election as King County doesn't post that, but there you have it.

Not good.  Off-year special election not-good.

Where are you getting that stat?  King County seems to have not even bothered to post it.