Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

... Yes

[Meeker]

I hate this state sometimes.

[Holmes]

Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

[bgwah]

Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

I've said numerous times that the only reason a rich libertarian state like Washington is so Democratic is because our Republican Party is downright insane.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New SUSA polls:

REFERENDUM 71
Accept 45%
Reject 42%

I-1033
Yes 45%
No 35%

What are they votes on?

[bgwah]

R71 = Domestic partnerships

I-1033 = Relates to property taxes, I would just look here: http://no1033.com/index.php?page=display&sub=1&id=6

[Ogre Mage]

Damn Washington, chu got some crazy fundies.

http://vimeo.com/6853620

Didn't know California could be outclassed. They're not even pulling that in Maine... where there actually is a same-sex marriage law up for a vote! Can't you just wait for the real marriage law to come up for a vote?

That is because the moderate Republicans one often finds in the Northeast are not at all like the ones in Washington state.  The WA GOP and its affiliates are batsh!t crazy in their extremism.  The 1996 Republican Gubernatorial nominee, Ellen Craswell, ran on "God's plan" for Washington state.  We are one of the most ideologically polarized states in the nation, although on balance the left outnumbers the right.

[Holmes]

Here's another one for you guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BFnc6EEpn8

Turnout might be high in eastern Washington. :o

[Meeker]

On the slightly plus side these ads are so grossly offensive and misleading that all the papers are going to have a field day on their editorial pages. Winning over the readers of the editorial pages is not how we're going to win this race though.

C'mon Washington. See through this crap. I know you've got it in you.

[Alcon]

R-71 roundup!!1

* Breaking:  A Republican fundraiser has opened a Reject R-71 PAC, and is "pretty optimistic" about a significant inward cash-flow.  The deadline for donations over $5,000 is October 12nd, indicating that this may be the predicted inflow of cash from religious organizations/major donors.

* Although the Catholic Church doesn't actually recognize civil relationships anyway, they're sending an optional-distribution letter to their parishes to reject R-71.  And I-1033, interestingly.  (Religious organizations can say whatever they damn well please about ballot measures.)

* Someone asked about ads:  Equal Rights Washington is running this sixty-second ad on cheap-buy cable networks in suburban and Eastern Washington.  (God, I remember how upsetting it was to even read the basic "lady died in her basement" news story back then; that is a tough ad.)  That's all.  Campaigns don't like ads getting stale before ballots go out, and in a sub-$5 million campaign, ad cuts/buys are fiscally limited.

* I can only speak in generalities (how annoying is that?), but I'll say this:  Every campaign as moneyed as Approve R-71 I've seen has done television ads.  Reject R-71's ad ability probably hinges entirely on the aforementioned influx, but I doubt the Republican guy is lying.

*Approve R-71's ultimate scenario is a high turnout where only they run ads, or if not, there's a backlash against Reject R-71's ads.  Reject R-71's ads eschew suppressing voter and hope that they can freak out sympathetic seniors, while turning out the base.  But a raised profile (which these ads give) could also hurt them.  The reality is, though, that scary ads are effective.

* This is one of the "related" videos for both Reject R-71 ads.  Uh?

Meanwhile, a high-profile R-71 fight is, weirdly, kind of good news for Tim Eyman.

[Alcon]

Here's WAFST's first ad, which is obviously a television cut:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va7-nEAkxx0&feature=player_embedded#at=32

Adorable.

[Meeker]

Here's WAFST's first ad, which is obviously a television cut:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va7-nEAkxx0&feature=player_embedded#at=32

Adorable.

omg I want to hug them

A+ job on the talent search. Sweet elderly lesbian couples FTW.

[bgwah]

Really shows you who the decent people in this election are. One focuses their campaign on happiness and love, while the other focuses on fear, hate, and lies.

[CultureKing]

As part of the young democrats we just hosted a debate on R-71 at our campus. We invited a speaker and we let the republicans invite a speaker. We probably managed to get 175 or so people to attend. It was hilarious, the republican speaker compared homosexuals to rapists and child-molesters, then cited the bible and said that our human rights came from the 10 commandments not the US constitution. Many of those who came in support of the republicans were insulted, and I won't even talk about how angry our local LGBT alliance was. Basically we had a mediocre speaker and theirs ruined any chance they had to convince anyone to come to their side.

Oh and after the debate we got about 25-30 volunteers to sign up.

[bgwah]

Too bad you didn't videotape it.

[CultureKing]

Too bad you didn't videotape it.

I didn't videotape it but the university TV station did. So now everyone will know about the "gay agenda", and yes he actually referred to the movement as such.

[Alcon]

What was this Reject guy's name, I'm curious?  I actually heard about the Gonzaga fiasco all the way over here.  Apparently the less fire-and-brimstone Reject team in Spokane County is reeling from bad word-of-mouth.

On the other hand, apparently the King County Reject people are smartly blanketing minority neighborhoods in Southeast Seattle.  Although it's worth noting that minority hatred of gays is somewhat overrated.  The King County Charter Amendment banning orientation by sexual discrimination easily passed every Seattle precinct, and that was in 2008 with high black turnout.  Still, it's clever.

This is completely meaningless for all practical purposes, but the (Spokane) Spokesman-Review, one of only two Washington newspapers to endorse McCain in 2008 (the other being the critically important Centralia Chronicle) has given a pretty unapologetic Approve R-71 endorsement.  Anyone who thinks this matters that much need only look at Prop. 8 (the endorsements were, what, like 50:1 against?).  Still, this is good news and kind of cool symbolism.  Now we wait with bated breath for the Chronicle, obviously.

And for fun, this is the previous gay rights vote (sexual orientation discrimination) that failed massively in 1997, adjusted to about where Ref. 71 is polling now in public polls.  Hard adjustment, so be wary (evidence is that urban areas have seen a bigger increase than rural ones, and SW Washington was abnormally for this due to media markets):



By % Approve extrapolated (2008 colors, with purple indicating a 2004-2008 flip):

Lincoln 37.74%
Lewis 38.40%
Adams 38.92%
Garfield 39.13%
Franklin 39.28%
Grant 39.57%
Benton 41.00%
Stevens 41.13%
Columbia 41.29%
Douglas 42.13%
Yakima 43.45%
Pend Oreille 43.63%
Okanogan 43.81%
Walla Walla 45.61%
Grays Harbor 45.69%
Ferry 45.83%
Mason 45.95%
Klickitat 46.33%
Chelan 46.36%
Asotin 46.41%
Kittitas 47.09%
Skagit 48.70%
Spokane 49.08%
Clallam 49.51%
Wahkiakum 49.63%
***
Island 50.13%
Pierce 50.70%
Snohomish 50.73%
Skamania 50.96%
Kitsap 51.03%
Whitman 51.13%
Cowlitz 51.94%
Pacific 51.96%
Whatcom 52.81%
Thurston 55.14%
Clark 55.66%
Jefferson 58.12%
King 62.99%
San Juan 67.67%

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2010040661_rally11m.html

Apparently Christians escaping persecution deserve freedom here in the U.S., but the gays living here already don't.

[Holmes]

This blog entry has pictures: http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary/13454/russian-radicalright-sends-its-children-to-cheerlead-bigotry

California's not the only state with a loud homophobic Slavic community.

[Alcon]

This blog entry has pictures: http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary/13454/russian-radicalright-sends-its-children-to-cheerlead-bigotry

California's not the only state with a loud homophobic Slavic community.

Out of all of the Slavic protesters in that article, only one (the leader) is registered to vote, and he's never cast a ballot.

They're an extremely vocal, outwardly homophobic minority, but they don't really have much voting power outside of a precinct or two in Auburn.

[Alcon]

WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

[CultureKing]

WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

Agreed. Sometimes I get really annoyed with how the young and liberal vote is so apathetic.

[Alcon]

WHY DO COLLEGE STUDENTS NOT VOTE FOR ANYTHING THAT IS NOT THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT

Agreed. Sometimes I get really annoyed with how the young and liberal vote is so apathetic.

Seriously.  I called three people who signed a stupid protest roster the College Gay-Lesbian-Whatever put out.  All three of them were still interested in the protest, but calling their parents to get their ballots from home?

Gee, I dunno, I called them last week.

It's a good thing that baseline LV models probably estimate 2007ish turnout for the youth vote, because it sure isn't going to be much this year.

[bgwah]

I did change my mailing address, but I'll have to make sure they don't end up sending it to my Sammamish house!

[ottermax]

The ads for the pro gay rights side are way better (the ones in Maine are also superior), but it doesn't seem like this will pass unless turnout occurs. There seems to be a gloomy feeling of apathy these days, but maybe its just the difference between last year's memorable and long election to the nearly invisible ones this year. I guess I'm just bored of my AP Gov class, probably the least opinionated bunch of teenagers I have ever met...

Anyways, I really hope Ref71 passes, I might try to find time to go and help them out... but I was hoping this would just pass easily.