Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

[CultureKing]

After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

I am expecting low turnout that will help Mallahan.t

[Alcon]

After a bad news cycle for Mallahan, it's a tie for Seattle mayor, SUSA (9/29):

Mallahan 38% (-3)
McGinn 38% (+2)

Mallahan's base remains older and more conservative, but the all-important suburban left-center vote seems to have trended a bit McGinn.

I am expecting low turnout that will help Mallahan.t

I would normally too (because senior citizens vote in hilarious numbers) but look what happened with the primary...it's hard to say.  I don't have much faith in municipal off-year polling anyway.

[Holmes]

Is everyone aware that the last time Protect Marriage Washington asked for donations was back in September 15th? Curious.

[Alcon]

Is everyone aware that the last time Protect Marriage Washington asked for donations was back in September 15th? Curious.

My (increasingly insider and increasingly less mantra-filtered) impression is that there is less sturm und drang about this among upper-level people.  I don't really know why but there doesn't seem to be any sort of freak-out.  Either it's been inevitable or...something else is going on.

The money battle seems less significant than the volunteer fight.  I imagine Reject R-71 is not doing remarkably hot there, either, since their campaign is somewhat underground.  They are extensively contacting faith leaders, though, and that is an impressive turnout machine.  They could win on that alone.  There are a TON of occasional voters on both sides' targeting lists and it takes an immense amount of manpower to do adequate contact and follow-up with all of them.  Getting TV presence is a cinch compared to that.

It's definitely nothing like a Prop. 8 dynamic where voter turnout mattered much less, after all.

For my part, I've registered about 150 new voters and my ballot tracking/email list is pushing 500.  If only every university had an organizer like me, we'd rock this sh**t .  Oh how I miss sleep.

[Meeker]

I believe Cathy Pearsall-Stipek is trying to lose her race. The photo she submitted to The News Tribune:



I mean what. the. fuck.

[bgwah]

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...?

[Meeker]

Awaken from your slumber my Hispanic-voting monster

[CultureKing]

Hmm... this could turn areas like Pasco, Yakima and Walla Walla into much more competitive areas. Especially if the new regulations being put into place by Obama do increase the time it takes to get citizenship.

Rise Democrats, Rise!

Though it is not as if Washington hasn't become freakishly hard for the republicans in the last 10 or so years.

[bgwah]

Though it is not as if Washington hasn't become freakishly hard for the republicans in the last 10 or so years.

I won't be happy until every single one of them is voted out of office!

[Holmes]

So... everyone is aware that Approve 71 is kinda doing a crappy job right? Or maybe that's just me.

[Alcon]

So... everyone is aware that Approve 71 is kinda doing a crappy job right? Or maybe that's just me.

What do you see them as doing badly?  I can forward complaints and criticisms to ye higher-ups.

[Meeker]

Yea, I'm kind of curious as well. I mean I don't think it's the best campaign I've ever seen but I don't think they're doing badly.

[Holmes]

Maybe I was a little bitchy, but I dunno. I mean, why are they letting opponents redefine the issue as marriage? This really bugs me. All I've seen is this 2 minute ad with a huge chunk of writing talking about the law... really unappealing. Are they identifying voters and preparing to GOTV? Voting day is in less than a month, after all.

[Meeker]

Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

[CultureKing]

Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

I love Microsoft. And this is not me just talking because of the perks of living near such a rich corporation.

[Alcon]

Maybe I was a little bitchy, but I dunno. I mean, why are they letting opponents redefine the issue as marriage? This really bugs me.

Meh, I think the ballot question mentioning "marriage" (but also "this is not marriage") has taken the issue framing to its eventual place -- kind of between the intent of the Approve ("TOTALLY NOT MARRIAGE") and Reject ("YEA ITS MARRIAGE") camp.

All I've seen is this 2 minute ad with a huge chunk of writing talking about the law... really unappealing.

No one's on TV yet, because of how fundraising and TV stuff works.  That won't last.

No one has their mind changed by two-minute YouTube activist spot videos, no worries about that.  It wasn't official and I agree it wasn't very good (some of the gays look a little, uh, too gay?)

Are they identifying voters and preparing to GOTV? Voting day is in less than a month, after all.

Yeah, the campaign is working from a list of Likely Democratic voters who aren't regular in off-year elections (1/3ers basically.)  Follow-ups by mail, that kind of thing.  The main struggle is getting phonebanking staffers.  I can't imagine either side is doing great with that, it's really not enjoyable work.

Microsoft just chucked in 100k for the Approve side

Had to hold that in for about a week.  If it's not already clear, Microsoft really, really likes us on this.  And will continue to, if you want to make any inferences from that.

[Holmes]

Ah, that ad is web only? It had some good visuals but it was the text that killed it... having an announcer say parts of it would be effective, I think. And I like how the campaign is basically making seniors feel guilty if they vote against it.

Are you guys just targeting Democratic voters or Independents too? And yay Microsoft.

[Meeker]

Phonebanking on an issue like this would be hell. Are you actually trying to make persuasion calls or just ID calls?

[Meeker]

I just got my ballot. Well ballots because it's Pierce County.

[Alcon]

One of my target voters with a mailing address in Centralia, but a physical address in Tacoma, got her ballot today too.  That's...proactive.

Phonebanking on an issue like this would be hell. Are you actually trying to make persuasion calls or just ID calls?

A hybrid.  And the best part?  They make us ask the voter on a scale of 1 to 5 how likely they are to support the law, with 5 being least likely.  Wtf unintuitive.  It's not that awful, though.  The software is good.  It just happens that phone communication seems incredibly archaic and frustrating to anyone used to communicating in the Internet age.  Among the few people you actually get ahold of, I have to say that even those that disagree have been almost universally civil.  But few people are friendly, and that plus the evasion/wrong numbers/foreigners/confusion becomes really draining by about three hours.  It's no wonder no one wants to do it.  And old people are scared by the computers we have to use.

We were getting a noticeable minority in opposition, but I figure that infrequent voters are more likely to be downscale.  On the other hand, they're substantially less likely to be seniors, and this is King County.  Eh.  I've stopped paying attention.  I don't even trust the polls.

Holmes:  They don't say specifically, but dollars to donuts we're targeting Likely Democrats.  We don't have party registration, so we rely on self-identification phone surveys and caucus/primary turnout for this.  It's pretty clear that there is a decent amount of error in the database to anyone who has used it extensively.  In fact, there are some voters who are just randomly listed as having partisan leans without any actual information to substantiate it.  I have no idea how or why.

I don't know if Meeker can shed any more light on this, but my intuition is that -- beyond Presidential primary preference and caucus turnout -- VoteBuilder identification is largely a pretty ineffective mechanism for targeting voters, even if it's the best system in a no-registration state.

[Alcon]

Looks like the Corzine campaign has a new volunteer!

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...?

Interesting.  We do have a large agriculture industry here.  And as the article notes, it certainly puts a local angle on the simmering card-check debate.

It doesn't surprise me that Microsoft is supporting Approve I-71 vigorously.  I worked there in the late 1990s and while I hated that job, I was impressed at how gay friendly the place was.  Quite a few employees were out.  They have a group called Gay and Lesbian Employees at Microsoft (GLEAM) and I surmise they have been important in pushing for rights, including when the corporation initially went wobbly after threats from the loathsome Rev. Hutcherson. 

Unfortunately, I fear that Tim Eyman's horrible new initiative (I-1033) is going to pass.  Social conservatism doesn't have much traction in Washington state, but playing on anti-tax sentiment is often quite effective. 

[bgwah]

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_union_push.html

Are the inevitable cracks finally starting to form in the GOP's domination of South Central Washington...?

Interesting.  We do have a large agriculture industry here.  And as the article notes, it certainly puts a local angle on the simmering card-check debate.

It doesn't surprise me that Microsoft is supporting Approve I-71 vigorously.  I worked there in the late 1990s and while I hated that job, I was impressed at how gay friendly the place was.  Quite a few employees were out.  They have a group called Gay and Lesbian Employees at Microsoft (GLEAM) and I surmise they have been important in pushing for rights, including when the corporation initially went wobbly after threats from the loathsome Rev. Hutcherson. 

Unfortunately, I fear that Tim Eyman's horrible new initiative (I-1033) is going to pass.  Social conservatism doesn't have much traction in Washington state, but playing on anti-tax sentiment is often quite effective. 

I-1033 is scary. The county results will be interesting. I always like seeing Whitman becoming one of the most pro-tax counties on these initiative votes. A lot of "conservatives" there change their tune when funding to WSU is threatened.

[Alcon]

New SUSA polls:

REFERENDUM 71
Accept 45%
Reject 42%

I-1033
Yes 45%
No 35%

Bleh.  Still betting on that easy pass, bgwah?