Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

Very good work on those maps. I have a question. Indian reservations vote for which party?

Way Democratic.  Obama didn't really do so well in Reservation areas, slightly worse than Kerry in some -- Clintonites and some third-party leak.  Gregoire did better.  Obama still won them, though, and out-performed Kerry by a good stretch on some reservations.

I also think McCain improved slightly because politically apathetic Indians are more likely to consider voting Republican.  Poll places got eliminated since 2004.  Just a guess.  I'll have to look at it more.

The area around Nespelem on the Okanogan County map is Indian country, as is the random dark red in northern Kitsap County.  The red areas west of Bainbridge Island on the map area also part of Port Madison Indian Reservation, but I think it's like 10% Indian.  Most of it is Bainbridge-type spillover.

Obama's second-best county in the U.S., Shannon, South Dakota, is the Pine Ridge Reservation.  He did stellar with plains Indians, and in the Southwest, where he did tribal connections.  Not so much of that in the NW, obv.

[Alcon]

I just got a Pierce County shapefile from the Democrats guy! 

Next up:  Clark County swing map, then Pierce stuff.

[Alcon]

Can you do the County Executive race for Pierce? Or is the program not capable of doing a race with more than two candidates?

This program = Me with an Excel sheet and a color palette I made It can do whatever information I modify the shapefile to contain the values of.

I can do it but it'll be 215% more of a bitch.  I also can only get what's included in the precinct file, of course.

I'll probably just take the margin scale and apply it to percent, or something.  I'll figure it out.

Oh, the guy from the Democrats emailed me back this along with the precinct shapefiles:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pretty cool.  I guess I'll be in contact with him.

Just finished Pierce maps, uploading them now.

[Alcon]

Goddamn 28-451

What'd 28-451 do specifically among McCain precincts?

[Alcon]

Goddamn 28-451

What'd 28-451 do specifically among McCain precincts?

It taints my visual continuity of the 28th.

There are also other parts of the district that are just as rich as 28-451 and didn't have any problem voting for Obama. They need to get with the picture.

You could always move here to the 27th, where we not only have visual continuity, but also not a single McCain precinct. 

[Alcon]

While I'm at it, any requests?

Pierce County Exec I'm up for.

[Alcon]

Obama winning the 15th is just bizarre.

Not super-bizarre, but definitely impressive.  Lots of Hispanics in the Yakima County portion.  Cantwell won it, and Bush won it by less than 10% (9.99% actually).  It surprised me, though; I would have expected Obama to have fallen short by a point or two.  Basically, Obama rocked the towns along the Columbia River, did well-enough in the inland white areas (average swings), and cleaned up among Hispanics.

McCain had only one >60, and it was 62-37 (down from 66-33).  Bush had eight.  The GOP losing its shirt in Okanogan County, with Hispanics, and among urban Eastern WA swing voters pretty much shot him.

The West Seattle/Vashon district is going to be in the very low 20s, I just f'ed up the shading on that one.  Fixed now.

Btw: Nothing here contains write-ins.  Dave counts those as votes; I don't, because Washington state law considers rejected write-ins to be effective undervotes.  Plus I like King County being 70% shaded.

[Alcon]

Not mine, but interesting



Spanaway (where Bush did pretty stunningly for a Republican in 2004) and Parkland seem to have been fit pretty hard, and Midland/etc. didn't hold up so well eitehr.

The growth areas are less interesting and have more to do with population changes.

[Alcon]

Any word on naval base precincts? I know much of county's economic navy related, but curious about how Bremerton proper, and base precincts went this time around.

The Navy ship voters are put in with Bremerton 1, which is also a downtown precinct.  I'm not sure what proportion of the voting population they are, but they can't be super-Republican.  Obama won that precinct 64-34 Obama, after Kerry won it 58-39.

The Trident Naval Base precinct (from the top of Bainbridge Island all the way east, the darkest blue precinct) went from 76-23 Bush to 58-41 McCain.

[Alcon]

Is there Indian land around Kamilche?  I thought it was just the Skokomish Rez in Mason, but there's gotta be some reason Kamilche is liberal.

Although it was barely >60 so it may just be a blip.

[Alcon]

Chelan has some... interesting precincts.

The shapes are weird because there are a few arterials and most people live within a few miles of them on off-roads.  After that it's basically National Forest Service land.  Makes things look really weird (and ugly).  The dark red is Holden Village, which is a spiritualist Lutheran camp or something.  Went 36-4-2 Obama.

Skamania kind of has that too, most of the interior precincts are really low-population.  Almost everyone lives near the river (unlike Klickitat, while has the Goldendale Valley)

[Alcon]

What about Thurston?

I have a probable Thurston source, but I want to try the county directly first.  I don't want to push my luck, since I already used them for Pierce.

I'll call the county now.

[Alcon]

I called Thurston.  They normally charge $50, but the lady working there said they'll probably make an exemption.  I just need to talk directly with the lady who specializes in shapefiles tomorrow.

I should probably have it tomorrow afternoon-ish.  Adams County should be up later this afternoon.

[Alcon]

Are there any Democratic precincts in Adams County?

Othello Rural #1 is primarily Hispanic and any Democrat worth their salt should carry it.  Naturally, Kerry lost it by 14 points.

Othello #3 is similar, but more Republican.  Hard to judge by the 2006 Senate numbers -- Cantwell won it narrowly, and Obama should benefit from increased Hispanic turnout.  But Cantwell also did better in Adams County than Obama among whites.

There are two small Othello precincts:  One Cantwell won, but went 90% Bush; the other has a pretty strong GOP race, but small precincts can behave oddly.

Beyond that, we're getting into 30% margins (Ritzville Ward 1 & Othello #2), and then out into "it'd take a miracle."  I think Othello Rural #1 is at least a 60% shot, though.

[Alcon]

adams county sux

second day in a row she was going to send it before she went home.  boo.

King on Friday, at least.  Is it a little sad that that's the most exciting thing in my week?

[Alcon]

Mind explaining that one?

Seems Bergeson did really well among old voters and areas that tend to like unthreatening incumbents...beyond that "gruhh?"

I'm planning to do a full-county SPI with King and Pierce, and maybe others if King and Pierce as a whole aren't boring.

[Alcon]

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

[Alcon]

Washington Legislature History

You might be interested in this.  Starting on page 157 (162 of the .PDF file) you'll find legislative district maps since statehood. 

There is also some stuff on the territorial legislature.  Early on the the population centers were Vancouver, Clarke County (sic until 1924); and Olympia, Thurston County.  The next boom was in Walla Walla.  Tacoma and then Seattle were somewhat later developers.

Yeah. Southeastern Washington used to have as many people as the Puget Sound.

Awesome stuff Jim.  I'll look at it more in the morning.  I knew that Grays Harbor County used to be Chehalis County, but not about Clark-with-an-"e."  Growth redistricting should be cool, too.

I DID, CUZ I'M AWESOME.

Wasn't Kitsap "Slaughter County" originally?

Yep, and Mason was originally Sawamish County.

[Alcon]

King County canvass is out a day early.  And I have finals study.

grr!

A quick look-over then I really should focus.

[Alcon]

Early observations:

- Obama looks to have won every precinct in Seattle unless some weirdness happened.  Broadmoor flipped to Obama +7 (points, the best a Democrat has ever done there in history) and he broke 60% at the Madison Park condos-for-Bush precinct

- McCain retained ultra-partisan GOP Hunts Point by 12 points, so maybe the Gold Coast wasn't total murder

- Damn this file is huge

[Alcon]

* = Contains portions of other counties.

Algona: 56-42 Obama
Auburn*: 56-42 Obama
Beaux Arts Village: 66-34 Obama
Bellevue: 64-35 Obama
Black Diamond: 50-49 Obama
Bothell*: 61-37 Obama
Burien: 67-31 Obama
Carnation: 62-36 Obama
Clyde Hill: 51-48 Obama
Covington: 55-43 Obama
Des Moines: 63-35 Obama
Duvall: 55-43 Obama
Enumclaw: 50-48 Obama
Federal Way: 61-38 Obama
Hunts Point: 56-43 McCain
Issaquah: 63-36 Obama
Kenmore: 67-32 Obama
Kent: 61-37 Obama
Kirkland: 66-33 Obama
Lake Forest Park: 74-24 Obama
Maple Valley: 52-46 Obama
Medina: 54-46 Obama
Mercer Island: 67-32 Obama
Milton*: 54-44 Obama
Newcastle: 61-37 Obama
Normandy Park: 59-40 Obama
North Bend: 58-40 Obama
Pacific*: 55-42 Obama
Redmond: 66-32 Obama
Renton: 67-32 Obama
Sammamish: 59-39 Obama
SeaTac: 66-32 Obama
Seattle: 85-14 Obama (beating San Francisco)
Shoreline: 73-25 Obama
Skykomish: 66-30 Obama
Snoqualmie: 58-41 Obama
Tukwila: 72-27 Obama
Woodinville: 62-37 Obama
Yarrow Point: 55-44 Obama

(Vashon Island was 80-18 Obama; as a whole, unincorporated was 60-39 Obama)

LD:

1st*: 61-37 Obama
5th: 57-41 Obama
11th: 71-27 Obama
30th: 59-39 Obama
31st*: 50-48 Obama
32nd*: 70-29 Obama
33rd: 64-35 Obama
34th: 78-21 Obama
36th: 84-15 Obama
37th: 86-13 Obama
41st: 64-35 Obama
43rd: 89-10 Obama
45th: 61-38 Obama
46th: 83-16 Obama
47th: 56-43 Obama
48th: 64-35 Obama

Final CD:

1st: 62-36 Obama
2nd: 56-42 Obama
3rd: 52-46 Obama
4th: 58-40 McCain
5th: 51-46 McCain
6th: 57-41 Obama
7th: 84-15 Obama
8th: 57-42 Obama
9th: 59-39 Obama

[Alcon]

The Eastside swing is incredible. I am in utter shock. Wow... Sammamish almost at 60% for a democrat!! That's just shocking. Some of these swings are just unbelievable. Did any place swing for McCain? Could you do a map of the cities? And what about Unincorporated King Co.?

Skykomish barely swung - +35.71% to +36.45%.

A few scattered precincts swung McCain (noise happens), but no.

Not sure what you mean by a city map, something like this?



Unincorporated King County was 59.7%-38.7% Obama.

Interestingly, there isn't a single Republican precinct along the immediate I-5 cooridor from Marysville to McChord AFB.

[Alcon]

The Sixth was only 57% Obama? What did Kerry get there?

53%.  It's Gig Harbor + urban Tacoma + southern Kitsap/western Bremerton + Mason + Jefferson + Clallam + Grays Harbor.  Other than urban Tacoma and Jefferson, none of those areas are super-Democratic.

The Pierce County portion was only 56% Kerry, and under half of the district's vote.  The rest of the district was only 51%.

[Alcon]

Seattle neighborhood results:

Obama
1. Mann (Central District 23rd Ave/MLK) - 96.05%
2. Madrona - 93.76%
3. Minor (Central District 12th/23rd) - 93.73%
4. Broadway - 93.65%
5. Stevens (Cap Hill 15th Ave) - 92.37%
6. Leschi - 91.50%
7. Fremont - 90.73%
8. Mt. Baker - 90.35%
9. Atlantic - 90.24%
10. Phinney Ridge - 89.96%
...
84. Alki - 76.24%
85. Southeast Magnolia - 76.11%
86. Arbor Heights - 74.57%
87. Madison Park - 71.09%
88. Briarcliff - 70.39%

McCain
1. Briarcliff - 28.70%
2. Madison Park - 27.89%
3. Arbor Heights - 23.98%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 22.73%
5. Alki - 22.34%
6. Laurelhurst - 22.50%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
8. Fauntleroy - 21.19%
9. View Ridge - 21.08%
10. Pike Market - 20.90%
...
84. Stevens - 6.58%
85. Madrona - 5.38%
86. Minor - 4.74%
87. Broadway - 4.72%
88. Mann - 2.68%

Gregoire
1. Mann - 93.11%
2. Minor - 91.96%
3. Broadway - 91.91%
4. Stevens - 89.06%
5. Madrona - 88.71%
6. Atlantic - 88.37%
7. Columbia City - 87.72%
8. Wallingford - 86.78%
9. Leschi - 86.75%
10. Phinney Ridge - 86.61%

Rossi
1. Madison Park - 39.29%
2. Briarcliff - 37.40%
3. Laurelhurst - 32.52%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 30.71%
5. Arbor Heights - 30.19%
6. Alki - 29.70%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 29.53%
8. View Ridge - 29.15%
9. Windermere - 28.82%
10. Pike Market - 28.53%

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 - Homosexual Discrimination
Yes
1. Broadway - 92.81%
2. Stevens - 89.98%
3. Fremont - 89.90%
4. Minor - 89.71%
5. Eastlake - 88.47%
6. Wallingford - 88.26%
7. Phinney Ridge - 88.00%
8. Montlake - 87.58%
9. Madrona - 87.30%
10. West Woodland - 87.12%

No
1. Rainier View - 30.49%
2. Briarcliff - 27.45%
3. Arbor Heights - 27.35%
4. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 26.01%
5. South Delridge - 25.80%
6. Rainier Beach - 25.48%
7. Madison Park - 25.37%
8. Brighton - 24.47%
9. South Park - 24.15%
10. Highland Park - 23.94%

Interestingly, the two blackest Seattle neighborhoods (~40%), the Central District districts of Mann and Minor, were strongly for this (86.7% and 89.7%, respectively).

[Alcon]

Seattle neighborhood results:

Obama
1. Mann (Central District 23rd Ave/MLK) - 96.05%
2. Madrona - 93.76%
3. Minor (Central District 12th/23rd) - 93.73%
4. Broadway - 93.65%
5. Stevens (Cap Hill 15th Ave) - 92.37%
6. Leschi - 91.50%
7. Fremont - 90.73%
8. Mt. Baker - 90.35%
9. Atlantic - 90.24%
10. Phinney Ridge - 89.96%
...
84. Alki - 76.24%
85. Southeast Magnolia - 76.11%
86. Arbor Heights - 74.57%
87. Madison Park - 71.09%
88. Briarcliff - 70.39%

McCain
1. Briarcliff - 28.70%
2. Madison Park - 27.89%
3. Arbor Heights - 23.98%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 22.73%
5. Alki - 22.34%
6. Laurelhurst - 22.50%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 21.92%
8. Fauntleroy - 21.19%
9. View Ridge - 21.08%
10. Pike Market - 20.90%
...
84. Stevens - 6.58%
85. Madrona - 5.38%
86. Minor - 4.74%
87. Broadway - 4.72%
88. Mann - 2.68%

Gregoire
1. Mann - 93.11%
2. Minor - 91.96%
3. Broadway - 91.91%
4. Stevens - 89.06%
5. Madrona - 88.71%
6. Atlantic - 88.37%
7. Columbia City - 87.72%
8. Wallingford - 86.78%
9. Leschi - 86.75%
10. Phinney Ridge - 86.61%

Rossi
1. Madison Park - 39.29%
2. Briarcliff - 37.40%
3. Laurelhurst - 32.52%
4. Southeast Magnolia - 30.71%
5. Arbor Heights - 30.19%
6. Alki - 29.70%
7. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 29.53%
8. View Ridge - 29.15%
9. Windermere - 28.82%
10. Pike Market - 28.53%

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 - Homosexual Discrimination
Yes
1. Broadway - 92.81%
2. Stevens - 89.98%
3. Fremont - 89.90%
4. Minor - 89.71%
5. Eastlake - 88.47%
6. Wallingford - 88.26%
7. Phinney Ridge - 88.00%
8. Montlake - 87.58%
9. Madrona - 87.30%
10. West Woodland - 87.12%

No
1. Rainier View - 30.49%
2. Briarcliff - 27.45%
3. Arbor Heights - 27.35%
4. South Beacon Hill/Holly Park - 26.01%
5. South Delridge - 25.80%
6. Rainier Beach - 25.48%
7. Madison Park - 25.37%
8. Brighton - 24.47%
9. South Park - 24.15%
10. Highland Park - 23.94%

Interestingly, the two blackest Seattle neighborhoods (~40%), the Central District districts of Mann and Minor, were strongly for this (86.7% and 89.7%, respectively).

Request: Seward Park.... I want to see how the Orthodox Jewish population in this 'hood went. My sister lives in the neighborhood and I haven't bothered to check King Co. precinct results.

Seward Park was 83.28% Obama, 15.62% McCain.  It contains a few diverse areas, and then a mix of whitebread and Ortho Jews.  Obama did very well there, probably thanks to the whitebread mostly.  Hard to tell though.  McCain didn't even break 10% on Millionaire's Row.  The rich swung in the city, too.