OR: Survey USA: Obama 10% ahead of McCain.

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-05-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 39%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

OREGON PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think 2004 showed that the conservative parts of Oregon just cannot outweigh Portland and the surrounding areas. 

Obama 53-45 in the end IMO. 

[NOVA Green]

I think 54-44 might be more accurate... this is a state where the past two elections have been close mainly because of the Nader effect, and Democrats inability to play well in Southern Oregon and blue-collar Clackamas and Linn counties.

This year Obama will exceed in Washington county, and most likely eke out minor victories in Clackamas, Marion, Linn, and possibly even Jackson and Deschutes county.

I expect OR to be several points less Obama than Washington, but there this is a state where he should exceed previous national Democratic performances by a decent margin.