KS: Research 2000: McCain leads by 11% in Kansas
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  KS: Research 2000: McCain leads by 11% in Kansas
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Author Topic: KS: Research 2000: McCain leads by 11% in Kansas  (Read 2944 times)
Alcon
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« on: June 05, 2008, 06:39:50 PM »

New Poll: Kansas President by Research 2000 on 2008-06-04

Summary: D: 40%, R: 51%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2008, 06:41:04 PM »

This is a DailyKos-sponsored poll, which technically makes it sponsored by a biased group, but I added it anyway because I think these results are in earnest.  If anyone has objections...well, too bad!

Roberts leads Slattery, 50%-38%.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2008, 06:49:21 PM »

This is a DailyKos-sponsored poll, which technically makes it sponsored by a biased group, but I added it anyway because I think these results are in earnest.  If anyone has objections...well, too bad!

Roberts leads Slattery, 50%-38%.

It is sponsored by a biased group, but it's a legitimate polling firm.  And, after all, isn't the pollster, not the sponsor, the important thing?

BTW, my KS prediction for the general:

McCain 58
Obama 38
Other 4 (mostly, but not totally, Barr)
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2008, 06:50:05 PM »

McCain will build on this, probably winning around 57-40, with Barr getting most of the rest.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2008, 06:51:09 PM »

...whatever

What happened to polling swing states?
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2008, 06:51:31 PM »

It is sponsored by a biased group, but it's a legitimate polling firm.  And, after all, isn't the pollster, not the sponsor, the important thing?

Depends on whether the client mucks with the methodology/weighting or not.  Rassy did some polls for the Libertarians in 2004 that turned out that way.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2008, 07:42:17 PM »

It'll certainly be closer than it was in 2004. Obama is a somewhat decent Democrat for it and McCain is a pretty terrible Republican for it. That said, it'll still a double digit victory for McCain.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2008, 08:18:28 PM »

I think Obama will crack 40 here.  Really. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2008, 12:00:28 AM »

I think Obama could get about 42% in Kansas, with Sebelius as VP about 45% - if the recent polls are true. Just look at the 2004 KS polls and you'll see Obama is already doing much better than Kerry did at this time.

Interesting questions asked by Research2000:

If Barack Obama selected Kathleen Sebelius as his Vice Presidential running mate, would that you make you more or less likely to vote for Obama, or would it have no real affect on your vote?

More: 32%
Less: 29%
No Effect: 39%

Among women:

More: 36%
Less: 26%
No Effect: 38%

Among Independents:

More: 36%
Less: 24%
No Effect: 40%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 60%
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2008, 12:19:55 AM »

45% in Kanas and Mississippi? Basically, 45% is the floor for Obama in just about every state? All this speculation is really, really agitating me now. Today I've heard Mississippi and Kansas could go 45% for Obama. Someone suggests McCain will break 40% in Massachusetts and the forum masses pounce "OMGZZ HACK!!!" It's not healthy to deal with 5 more months of this.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2008, 12:22:59 AM »

45% in Kanas and Mississippi? Basically, 45% is the floor for Obama in just about every state? All this speculation is really, really agitating me now. Today I've heard Mississippi and Kansas could go 45% for Obama. Someone suggests McCain will break 40% in Massachusetts and the forum masses pounce "OMGZZ HACK!!!" It's not healthy to deal with 5 more months of this.

I think you're confusing "ceiling" and "floor."  playing around with the black/white numbers in MS suggests that in a best-case scenario Obama could approach 45%.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2008, 12:25:22 AM »

45% in Kanas and Mississippi? Basically, 45% is the floor for Obama in just about every state? All this speculation is really, really agitating me now. Today I've heard Mississippi and Kansas could go 45% for Obama. Someone suggests McCain will break 40% in Massachusetts and the forum masses pounce "OMGZZ HACK!!!" It's not healthy to deal with 5 more months of this.

I think you're confusing "ceiling" and "floor."  playing around with the black/white numbers in MS suggests that in a best-case scenario Obama could approach 45%.

No, I know what I mean. I am being overly dramatic, but still. Obama isn't getting 45% in Mississippi or Kansas. I will concede he could get over 40%, but not 45%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2008, 12:26:37 AM »

45% in Kanas and Mississippi? Basically, 45% is the floor for Obama in just about every state? All this speculation is really, really agitating me now. Today I've heard Mississippi and Kansas could go 45% for Obama. Someone suggests McCain will break 40% in Massachusetts and the forum masses pounce "OMGZZ HACK!!!" It's not healthy to deal with 5 more months of this.

I think you're confusing "ceiling" and "floor."  playing around with the black/white numbers in MS suggests that in a best-case scenario Obama could approach 45% 47%.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2008, 12:32:13 AM »

45% in Kanas and Mississippi? Basically, 45% is the floor for Obama in just about every state? All this speculation is really, really agitating me now. Today I've heard Mississippi and Kansas could go 45% for Obama. Someone suggests McCain will break 40% in Massachusetts and the forum masses pounce "OMGZZ HACK!!!" It's not healthy to deal with 5 more months of this.

I think you're confusing "ceiling" and "floor."  playing around with the black/white numbers in MS suggests that in a best-case scenario Obama could approach 45%.

No, I know what I mean. I am being overly dramatic, but still. Obama isn't getting 45% in Mississippi or Kansas. I will concede he could get over 40%, but not 45%.

the people in the MS thread came up with mathematical explanations of how it is possible.  just because you don't think it is pretty to think so, doesn't make it untrue.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2008, 12:37:50 AM »

I'm just annoyed that when we have these polls showing Obama losing, we all sit back and try to find out what his best case scenario is and how he could win. Just ignore me for now.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2008, 12:45:06 AM »

I'm just annoyed that when we have these polls showing Obama losing, we all sit back and try to find out what his best case scenario is and how he could win. Just ignore me for now.

we all have our difficult times.  I had one last night.  "Senior Cut Day" is coming up next week at my HS.  the whole thing just pisses me off.  I REFUSE to cut on Senior Cut Day.  it reminds me of a story my dad once told me about how he protested the Vietnam War in a short haircut, slacks, and polo shirt.  why?  he refused to wear the uniform.  don't think I'm averse to cutting school - I'm doing so tomorrow.  that's why it's 142am and sleepytime is still a long way away for me.  but when people try to do something en masse to be cool - such as Senior Cut Day - I get mad.  when a group of "non-conformists" grow too large they develop a code of rules just as rigid and arbitrary as the one the originally rebelled against.  so I'll proudly attend every class on Senior Cut Day.  so, yeah.  good luck sorting things out.  don't seek psychotherapy though - those people just f*** you up even more.  take it from me.  I'm experienced.
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2008, 12:47:13 AM »

I'm just annoyed that when we have these polls showing Obama losing, we all sit back and try to find out what his best case scenario is and how he could win. Just ignore me for now.

we all have our difficult times.  I had one last night.  "Senior Cut Day" is coming up next week at my HS.  the whole thing just pisses me off.  I REFUSE to cut on Senior Cut Day.  it reminds me of a story my dad once told me about how he protested the Vietnam War in a short haircut, slacks, and polo shirt.  why?  he refused to wear the uniform.  don't think I'm averse to cutting school - I'm doing so tomorrow.  that's why it's 142am and sleepytime is still a long way away for me.  but when people try to do something en masse to be cool - such as Senior Cut Day - I get mad.  when a group of "non-conformists" grow too large they develop a code of rules just as rigid and arbitrary as the one the originally rebelled against.  so I'll proudly attend every class on Senior Cut Day.  so, yeah.  good luck sorting things out.  don't seek psychotherapy though - those people just f*** you up even more.  take it from me.  I'm experienced.

Exactly.  Safe Obama.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2008, 12:49:28 AM »

I'm just annoyed that when we have these polls showing Obama losing, we all sit back and try to find out what his best case scenario is and how he could win. Just ignore me for now.

we all have our difficult times.  I had one last night.  "Senior Cut Day" is coming up next week at my HS.  the whole thing just pisses me off.  I REFUSE to cut on Senior Cut Day.  it reminds me of a story my dad once told me about how he protested the Vietnam War in a short haircut, slacks, and polo shirt.  why?  he refused to wear the uniform.  don't think I'm averse to cutting school - I'm doing so tomorrow.  that's why it's 142am and sleepytime is still a long way away for me.  but when people try to do something en masse to be cool - such as Senior Cut Day - I get mad.  when a group of "non-conformists" grow too large they develop a code of rules just as rigid and arbitrary as the one the originally rebelled against.  so I'll proudly attend every class on Senior Cut Day.  so, yeah.  good luck sorting things out.  don't seek psychotherapy though - those people just f*** you up even more.  take it from me.  I'm experienced.

WHAT?? Good God man, Senior CUT day was great last year! We all went out to a dock and had a dock party together. Good times! I suggest you take it and spend time with those you like, because once you go off to college, things will never be the same.

But my problems arise as I have worked all day in the Charleston heat and am probably overly tired.
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Boris
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2008, 12:59:55 AM »

The goddamn AP Gov test was on our Senior Ditch Day, the monday after prom. I was pretty tired/apathetic on that day, so I basically answered all the essay questions in a one-liner pompous Al-esque style (if I could I seriously would have italicized random words here and there) without really elaborating on my answers. Should be amusing to see how I did...I'd probably shoot myself if I got a 4.

It kinda pisses me off though that the New York Schools get out so late. I graduated High School two weeks ago and you guys are still going until mid to late June. I've always thought it'd be amazing to go to high school in like Midtown Manhattan but the late end date kills that fantasy.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2008, 01:03:39 AM »

we don't start until (traditionally) the day after Labor Day.  of course that does me little now that I am going to college by August 22nd.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2008, 04:04:48 AM »

My prediction:

KANSAS PRESIDENT -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama


Kansas will be one of the states Obama improves the Democratic performance most in over 2004.  I think he could potentially get 43%-45%. 
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2008, 09:11:06 AM »

My senior class was never organized enough to do an en masse senior skip day. Tongue
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Aizen
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« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2008, 11:14:05 AM »

4/20 was Senior Ditch Day at my school. Killing two birds with one stone I suppose.
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Meeker
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« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2008, 12:33:45 PM »

My school forces us to coordinate all Senior skip days/pranks with them. Or else you don't graduate.
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