SD PrimD: ARG: Clinton enjoys a huge lead over Obama

[Democratic Hawk]

If Clinton wins SD, she will curse caucuses until the day ... she pops her clogs!

Dave

[RJEvans]

I don´t think that either Obama or Clinton will win comfortably tomorrow. I think they will be within 5 percent. For example, Obama did quite well in the ID caucuses, but "just" won 58% in the "beauty" primary.

Yes, you're quite right. Caucuses obviously inflate the margin of victory. But these "beauty contests" have deflated turnout considerably, haven't they? I think that should be relevant.

Is that why in every "beauty contest" primary, turnout was larger than the caucus?

[Joe Republic]

Is this seriously the only poll we have from SD?

Since early April, yes.

[Alcon]

I don´t think that either Obama or Clinton will win comfortably tomorrow. I think they will be within 5 percent. For example, Obama did quite well in the ID caucuses, but "just" won 58% in the "beauty" primary.

Yes, you're quite right. Caucuses obviously inflate the margin of victory. But these "beauty contests" have deflated turnout considerably, haven't they? I think that should be relevant.

Is that why in every "beauty contest" primary, turnout was larger than the caucus?

A state-sanctioned primary always has higher turnout than a caucus.  The "beauty contest" primaries, in turn, always have much lower turnout than a state-sanctioned primary that counts for something.

[Sbane]

UHHH... so we can count out a big Obama win that is for sure. Tomorrow should be interesting.

[Mr.Phips]

This poll makes no sense.  Obama was up by 12 last month here. 

[Mr. Morden]

This poll makes no sense.  Obama was up by 12 last month here. 

That was before this huge burst of momentum for Clinton:

[Mr.Phips]

This poll makes no sense.  Obama was up by 12 last month here. 

That was before this huge burst of momentum for Clinton:

You are joking right?

[Mr. Morden]

You are joking right?

Of course. 

[The Mikado]

On the other hand, if Clinton wins SD, ARG will be getting all sorts of accolades, even if it's a narrow, 2.6% win, rather than the 26% blowout they predict.

[Alcon]

On the other hand, if Clinton wins SD, ARG will be getting all sorts of accolades, even if it's a narrow, 2.6% win, rather than the 26% blowout they predict.

I think anyone who pays enough attention to polls to give accolades to polling groups will know that it'd still be a f-up.

[Torie]

To take ARG too seriously, maybe this is why the Clinton campaign has been trumpeting South Dakota "pulling closer."  I mean, ARG sucks, but does it suck by >26 points?

You see! White people don't like Obama anymore unless they are elitists or unemployed cosseted college kids, who don't pay any taxes, or of course, better still, both.

[Hash]

lol.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Clinto-mentum!!!!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha. Good old ARG. What a way for them to end the primary season.

[Gustaf]

Given my expectation of a +15% Obama win...

...when was the last time ARG missed a race by 40+%?

[Ronnie]

Ummm...huh?

If Clinton can pull it off with this kind of margin, then she can emerge with a popular vote lead, which can be a HUGE deal for the Clinton camp.

I absolutely doubt, though, that if she can pull off a win, it wouldn't be 26%

[Mr. Morden]

Given my expectation of a +15% Obama win...

...when was the last time ARG missed a race by 40+%?

I don't think they've ever missed it by *quite* that much.  For the Democratic primary in SC, they were off by 26 points.  For the GOP caucus in Nevada, they were off by about 30 points (Research 2000 was actually even worse in that case).

There've been loads of times when they were off by about 10 or 15, but I'm not sure if there are any other instances of them being off by 25+ points.

[Verily]

Given my expectation of a +15% Obama win...

...when was the last time ARG missed a race by 40+%?

Well, not an actual election, but they had Sununu up by eleven points while UNH (the gold standard in NH) had Shaheen up by eighteen a few months ago. (They "fixed" their numbers in the next poll and had Shaheen up.) That's only 29 points, of course. They were off by 26 in South Carolina. They had their last-minute switcharoo in Wisconsin: Clinton up six two days before the election and then Obama up ten the day of (the first poll then being off by 24).

[Gustaf]

So the expected result in South Dakota would still be new ground in bad polling territory, even for ARG then.

Interesting. Maybe it will be close after all then.

[Verily]

Pretty much, but I could go on with the bad ARG polls

Off by 16 in Florida, by 17 in Connecticut, by 21 in Illinois, by 18 in Iowa...

This is fun!

[Mr. Morden]

Pretty much, but I could go on with the bad ARG polls

Off by 16 in Florida, by 17 in Connecticut, by 21 in Illinois, by 18 in Iowa...

This is fun!

Ah, the memories.

[Eraserhead]

Wow. Just wow. ARG is going out with a bang.

Still, I wish we had at least one serious poll out of SD.

[Flying Dog]

Wow. Just wow. ARG is going out with a bang.

Still, I wish we had at least one serious poll out of SD.

Me too. That's why I'm going to be edgy until tomorrow night.

[Erc]

I'm getting pretty sure they'll tell us all tomorrow that the existence of the polling company was just a massive joke and they were using a fancy dartboard all along.