WY: Research 2000: McCain leads Obama by a moderate margin.

[Flying Dog]

New Poll: Wyoming President by Research 2000 on 2008-05-28

Summary: D: 40%, R: 53%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

McCain (R) 53

Obama (D) 40















Lummis (R) 41

Trauner (D) 44



This is for the open at-large Wyoming seat Gary Trauner almost captured in 2006 (he came up 1,000 votes short).

[Sbane]

Hmm..Interesting. Lets see some Montana polling.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What was the partisan affiliation?  If Obama can be down only 13% in Wyoming, it's a good sign.

[Wiz in Wis]

I almost panicked, but then realized this was for Wyoming, not Wisconsin

[minionofmidas]

I almost panicked, but then realized this was for Wyoming, not Wisconsin

A propos of nothing: In most states, I would not consider 13 points a "moderate margin". Interesting house poll - I figured a generic republican should easily outdo Barbara Cubin here, but maybe Lummis has issues as well? Or just lower name rec?

[Flying Dog]

What was the partisan affiliation?  If Obama can be down only 13% in Wyoming, it's a good sign.

I believe it is 48% GOP 28% Democrat

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What was the partisan affiliation?  If Obama can be down only 13% in Wyoming, it's a good sign.

I believe it is 48% GOP 28% Democrat

In this poll?  I meant the sampling for the poll, not the statewide numbers.

[Flying Dog]

Pulled up the actually numbers for this poll:


Democrats           120   (24%)
Republicans         239   (48%)
Independents/Other  141   (28%)

[Eraserhead]

Obama's popularity in some of these ultra-Republican western sates is really quite bizarre. Too bad he still can't actually win most of these states.

[NOVA Green]

Obama's popularity in some of these ultra-Republican western sates is really quite bizarre. Too bad he still can't actually win most of these states.

Obama's strength here appears to be mainly concentrated in the Southern part of the state, where he is close to tied with McCain 44-48. This is the most Democratic part of the state and key to Democrats winning statewide elections. It is also the most urbanized and blue-collar region and so less likely to follow the Democratic-Republican polarization over natural resource usage, which is so common in Western states.

Obama will not come close to winning Wyoming, but at least so far it appears that he is bringing back a chunk of the party base that should help Democratic efforts to take the house seat, and do well with other statewide elections.

[Flying Dog]

Funny thing is that the Democratic party is more unified here than the republican party.

[NOVA Green]

Funny thing is that the Democratic party is more unified here than the republican party.

What type of divisions are you referencing? Is there still lingering resentment over the Romney / McCain primary battles, or are there particular statewide issues at play here?

[Eraserhead]

Interestingly enough, there is surprisingly little difference between the various age groups and their presidential preferences.

And here is the partisan breakdown...


         Obama  McCain

Dem    88%    7%

GOP    11%    81%

Indy    48%    44%


No Clinton protest vote here.