MI: Survey USA: McCain leads Obama by 4

[kevinatcausa]

Also worth noting:  The poll has Obama winning by only 2 points in Wayne County, which Kerry won by 40 points in 2004.   It's a small subsample, but such a huge difference that it matters to the overall poll result.  (And if I ran my numbers correctly, large enough a discrepancy to be statistically significant even on the small sample of ~95 voters from Wayne county surveyed). 

If Obama actually pulls the 40 point margin there in the election (which seems likely) and the rest of the numbers stay the same as in the poll, he'd win Michigan by 3 points. 

[kevinatcausa]

Another crosstab I missed before:

Black voters: Obama 62%, McCain 26% (was 89-10 in 2004). 

EDIT: Black voters: McCain/Romney: 40%, Obama/Biden: 34% 

[kevinatcausa]

The format of all of these SUSA polls (asking a the presidential first, then asking each vice presidential pairing afterwards) greatly overmagnifies the effect of the vice-presidential choice.