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  Talk Elections
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  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MI: Survey USA: McCain leads Obama by 4
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Author Topic: MI: Survey USA: McCain leads Obama by 4  (Read 2200 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 28, 2008, 10:23:08 am »

New Poll: Michigan President by Survey USA on 2008-05-27

Summary: D: 37%, R: 41%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2008, 10:27:15 am »

22% unsure, I guess alot of people are waiting to see what happens on the 31st.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2008, 10:29:59 am »

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2008, 10:31:21 am »

22% undecided? 

damn michigan make up your mind : P
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2008, 10:37:56 am »

Oh, itīs good that we can look back on November 5 and watch this funny poll that had McCain/Romney ahead of Obama/Sebelius by 16, yet on Election Day Obama/Sebelius won MI by 5.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2008, 10:45:50 am »
« Edited: May 28, 2008, 10:56:09 am by Ronnie »

I think that there are too many undecideds - I want to see some more polls later in the election season. 

Obama will probably win by 1-2 points on election day in MI.  McCain can't write off the state completely, though - this is a time where Obama should be peaking in the polls.  If McCain can work with undecided voters, which usually tend to lean conservative, he can have a pretty good swing.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2008, 11:26:17 am »

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?

Maybe the main goal was to prove to McCain what an asset Romney would be in his third home state. I could live with McCain choosing Romney Smiley
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2008, 11:42:52 am »

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?

Maybe the main goal was to prove to McCain what an asset Romney would be in his third home state. I could live with McCain choosing Romney Smiley

Me too, because besides maybe MI and MA where else is Romeny going to help in Democratic states?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2008, 11:49:17 am »

The DNC should have had more sense than to strip MI of her delegates. Hell, with 21% of Democrats undecided and only 60% supporting Obama, it is clearly having an impact. Disenfranchising Democrats from having their say on their party's presidential nominee was foolish; however, 'justified' the decision was

Dave
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Aizen
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2008, 11:52:34 am »

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?

Maybe the main goal was to prove to McCain what an asset Romney would be in his third home state. I could live with McCain choosing Romney Smiley

Me too, because besides maybe MI and MA where else is Romeny going to help in Democratic states?


Western states like Nevada and Colorado where he is real popular among conservatives. Plus he brings in economic credentials. He'd actually be a good pick as much as I hate to admit it.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2008, 11:52:59 am »

The DNC should have had more sense than to strip MI of her delegates. Hell, with 21% of Democrats undecided and only 60% supporting Obama, it is clearly having an impact. Disenfranchising Democrats from having their say on their party's presidential nominee was foolish; however, 'justified' the decision was

Dave

I think it has more to do with pissed off Clinton maniacs, which is what were seeing all over the country. 

I really think Obama should take her as his VP. 
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2008, 11:54:35 am »

Do you think maybe they might have tried including a few other options but 'McCain' and 'McCain/Romney'?

Maybe the main goal was to prove to McCain what an asset Romney would be in his third home state. I could live with McCain choosing Romney Smiley

Me too, because besides maybe MI and MA where else is Romeny going to help in Democratic states?


Western states like Nevada and Colorado where he is real popular among conservatives. Plus he brings in economic credentials. He'd actually be a good pick as much as I hate to admit it.

He's also a complete tool and I'd love to see him out there campaigning for the GOP.  Maybe go to some more inner cities neighborhoods, inquire about who let the dogs out again? 
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SPQR
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2008, 11:58:56 am »

And I thought thant only uni polls had more than 10-15% undecideds...
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2008, 12:17:11 pm »

The DNC should have had more sense than to strip MI of her delegates. Hell, with 21% of Democrats undecided and only 60% supporting Obama, it is clearly having an impact. Disenfranchising Democrats from having their say on their party's presidential nominee was foolish; however, 'justified' the decision was

Dave

I think it has more to do with pissed off Clinton maniacs, which is what were seeing all over the country. 

I really think Obama should take her as his VP. 

Yes, looking at the polls, the Clinton maniacs do seem to showing signs of spite, or worse, in the event of an Obama nomination. In all honesty, if Clinton wants the VP slot, I don't see how Obama can deny her it. Unfortunately, this 'unity' ticket that could as much a 'nightmare' as it is a 'dream'.

It could be America's equivalent of Blair-Brown - and seathing acrimony from within Sad. Not ideal, far from it, but if needs must ...

Dave
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2008, 12:23:47 pm »

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2008, 12:25:43 pm »

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.

Yes, maybe that would happen if McCain led in Pennsylvania and led in a Michigan poll that gave him over 40%. Neither of which has happened recently (except for that Rasmussen that had McCain +1, a statistical tie.)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2008, 12:29:42 pm »

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.

Yes, maybe that would happen if McCain led in Pennsylvania and led in a Michigan poll that gave him over 40%. Neither of which has happened recently (except for that Rasmussen that had McCain +1, a statistical tie.)

You're right. Maybe that will happen. It is May, after all.
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Alcon
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2008, 12:31:15 pm »

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.

Yes, maybe that would happen if McCain led in Pennsylvania and led in a Michigan poll that gave him over 40%. Neither of which has happened recently (except for that Rasmussen that had McCain +1, a statistical tie.)

"Statistical tie" is a stupid euphemism for what's very much not a tie.  We do not know which candidate is ahead at the 95% confidence rate; that does not make it a tie.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2008, 12:44:54 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2008, 12:48:29 pm by kevinatcausa »

Also worth noting:  The poll has Obama winning by only 2 points in Wayne County, which Kerry won by 40 points in 2004.   It's a small subsample, but such a huge difference that it matters to the overall poll result.  (And if I ran my numbers correctly, large enough a discrepancy to be statistically significant even on the small sample of ~95 voters from Wayne county surveyed). 

If Obama actually pulls the 40 point margin there in the election (which seems likely) and the rest of the numbers stay the same as in the poll, he'd win Michigan by 3 points. 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2008, 12:53:14 pm »

Hey, we'll give you guys Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. Just give us Michigan and Pennsylvania and we'll be all set.

Yes, maybe that would happen if McCain led in Pennsylvania and led in a Michigan poll that gave him over 40%. Neither of which has happened recently (except for that Rasmussen that had McCain +1, a statistical tie.)

Each and every single one of these SurveyUSA polls gives McCain more than 40% in Michigan.  Some put him damn close to 50%.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2008, 12:58:17 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2008, 02:23:37 pm by kevinatcausa »

Another crosstab I missed before:

Black voters: Obama 62%, McCain 26% (was 89-10 in 2004). 

EDIT: Black voters: McCain/Romney: 40%, Obama/Biden: 34% 

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Flying Dog
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2008, 02:38:24 pm »

No f'ing way. This is a really screwy poll.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2008, 02:44:05 pm »

OK let say SUSA sucks right now... I wish PPP would poll other states. Sad
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2008, 03:51:54 pm »

Another screwy poll if you look at the internals. No way McCain wins the black vote or gets 26%. I do expect a Romney VP choice would give him a boost there.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2008, 04:59:14 pm »

22% undecided? You know what that means: Dodgy Poll

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