MI-EPIC/MRA: Obama down 4, but Obama/Clinton beats McCain/Romney by 7

[Tender Branson]

John McCain: 44%
Barack Obama: 40%

The poll found the candidates leading by wide margins among voters in their own parties with Obama taking Democrats 73-14 percent and McCain leading among Republicans 77-10 percent. If McCain has an edge, it’s coming from independents who favor McCain over Obama 41-28 percent.

Obama leads McCain among African Americans 81-15 percent and among other races 56-31 percent, but McCain leads among whites 48-35 percent.

Obama leads among Detroiters 73-22 percent, among Oakland County voters 51-31 percent, and among outer metro voters 44-39 percent. McCain leads among outer Wayne County voters 59-27 percent, Macomb County voters 51-35 percent, western Michigan voters 49-31 percent, northern Michigan voters 41-36 percent, and among central Michigan voters 45-43 percent.

McCain leads among men 45-38 percent and among women 44-41 percent.

.....

Barack Obama / Hillary Clinton: 51%
John McCain / Mitt Romney: 44%

Obama-Clinton leads among Democrats 89-9 percent (up 16 points), while McCain-Romney leads 78-17 among Republicans (no change) and 54-34 among Independents.

Obama-Clinton leads in Detroit 82-18 percent, 59-40 percent in all of Wayne County, 55-43 percent in Oakland County, 53-41 percent in outer metro, and 50-43 in central Michigan.

Obama-Clinton leads McCain-Romney 53-42 among women and 48-47 among all men.

Obama-Clinton leads among younger men 56-42, older women 54-41, and among younger women 51-43, while McCain leads among older men 52-42.

EPIC-MRA telephoned 600 people May 19-22. The poll's margin of sampling error is 4 percentage points up or down.

http://www.wxyz.com/news/story.aspx?content_id=651fa9c0-ab29-4dbe-abdc-2f26c1e54cec

[Meeker]

Michigan looks to be turning out as more of a problem than I anticipated. We'll see what happens to these numbers once Clinton drops though

[Alcon]

Michigan = Indecisive

[Torie]

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Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

And McCain is going to get 22% out of the city of Detroit, plus presumably a bit more from the undecideds? That means he is sweeping the white vote there. And McCain is going to get 15% of the black vote plus some of the undecideds?  That ain't going to happen.

[Sam Spade]

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Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

[Torie]

Sam what do you think about that 73-22 number out of city of Detroit?  And meanwhile Obama is  ahead by 20% in Oakland County?

[MarkWarner08]

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Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

So as Macomb goes, so doesn't go Oakland County? Since Macomb is full of middle-class Catholic voters and Oakland is more demographically favorable to Obama, would it be fair to assume that McCain will either maintain or grow Bush's '04 victory margin in Macomb and Obama will either narrowly win or come close in Oakland?

[Ronnie]

With the unlikely probability that Obama will choose Clinton as VP, I officially state that I have no idea where the race will go in MI.

I am much more confident about this before, though; and if McCain can eke out a victory for whatever reason, this race will be MUCH tougher for Obama.  I want to see some polls after the MI, FL ordeal is solved though, just for speculation.

[Sam Spade]

Sam what do you think about that 73-22 number out of city of Detroit? 

What would be the MOE on that type of subsample.  Not to mention all of these subsamples. 

[Torie]

Sam what do you think about that 73-22 number out of city of Detroit? 

What would be the MOE on that type of subsample.  Not to mention all of these subsamples. 

I don't know, but Bush got 6% out of Detroit in 2004.

[Alcon]

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.

[Torie]

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Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

So as Macomb goes, so doesn't go Oakland County? Since Macomb is full of middle-class Catholic voters and Oakland is more demographically favorable to Obama, would it be fair to assume that McCain will either maintain or grow Bush's '04 victory margin in Macomb and Obama will either narrowly win or come close in Oakland?

I don't know, but the idea of Obama winning Oakland County by 20% is rather arresting.

[Torie]

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.

Ya, and McCain got the entire 15% plus side of the bell curve tail into his corner in Detroit and then some. LOL.

[Alcon]

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.

Ya, and McCain got the entire 15% plus side of the bell curve tail into his courner in Detroit and then some. LOL.

I'm not sure how EPIC does that screening, whether it's touch-numbers or based on phone exchanges.  If it's the former, it's quite plausible that there's some noise involved.  If it's the latter...who knows?  But lately I get the impression that the "1-in-20" rule of samples is trending a little north of the 1:19 ratio.

Especially with what's a rather bad pollster.

[MarkWarner08]

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Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

So as Macomb goes, so doesn't go Oakland County? Since Macomb is full of middle-class Catholic voters and Oakland is more demographically favorable to Obama, would it be fair to assume that McCain will either maintain or grow Bush's '04 victory margin in Macomb and Obama will either narrowly win or come close in Oakland?

I don't know, but the idea of Obama winning Oakland County by 20% is rather arresting.

Well, if he won three people to McCain's two...

[Sam Spade]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

So as Macomb goes, so doesn't go Oakland County? Since Macomb is full of middle-class Catholic voters and Oakland is more demographically favorable to Obama, would it be fair to assume that McCain will either maintain or grow Bush's '04 victory margin in Macomb and Obama will either narrowly win or come close in Oakland?

Probably.  Especially if the race is close.  Macomb County should also be a place where race is a factor, which was what my first post hinted at.

[Eraserhead]

Indy numbers look strange. I wouldn't expect McCain to beat Obama by that much among them. Also we know he'd be lucky if he got 5% of the black vote, 15% ain't happening.

[Aizen]

Bleh. Looks like Obama is having some trouble in Michigan.

[Flying Dog]

John McCain: 44%
Barack Obama: 40%

The poll found the candidates leading by wide margins among voters in their own parties with Obama taking Democrats 73-14 percent and McCain leading among Republicans 77-10 percent. If McCain has an edge, it’s coming from independents who favor McCain over Obama 41-28 percent.

Obama leads McCain among African Americans 81-15 percent and among other races 56-31 percent, but McCain leads among whites 48-35 percent.

Obama leads among Detroiters 73-22 percent, among Oakland County voters 51-31 percent, and among outer metro voters 44-39 percent. McCain leads among outer Wayne County voters 59-27 percent, Macomb County voters 51-35 percent, western Michigan voters 49-31 percent, northern Michigan voters 41-36 percent, and among central Michigan voters 45-43 percent.

McCain leads among men 45-38 percent and among women 44-41 percent.

.....

Barack Obama / Hillary Clinton: 51%
John McCain / Mitt Romney: 44%

Obama-Clinton leads among Democrats 89-9 percent (up 16 points), while McCain-Romney leads 78-17 among Republicans (no change) and 54-34 among Independents.

Obama-Clinton leads in Detroit 82-18 percent, 59-40 percent in all of Wayne County, 55-43 percent in Oakland County, 53-41 percent in outer metro, and 50-43 in central Michigan.

Obama-Clinton leads McCain-Romney 53-42 among women and 48-47 among all men.

Obama-Clinton leads among younger men 56-42, older women 54-41, and among younger women 51-43, while McCain leads among older men 52-42.

EPIC-MRA telephoned 600 people May 19-22. The poll's margin of sampling error is 4 percentage points up or down.

http://www.wxyz.com/news/story.aspx?content_id=651fa9c0-ab29-4dbe-abdc-2f26c1e54cec

Pretty much as I suspected at this point. Michigan voters are flirting with the Republican in the summertime like they always do. Come September/October they'll come home.

No way is McCain getting 15% of the AA vote.

Obama will likely get slaughtered in Macomb Co. and the white-working class in Saginaw and Flint. Hopefully those Oakland numbers hold up. Kerry only narrowly won it. I always had a suspicion Oakland would be solidly for Obama but not by that much.
Yeah, the white Wayne county residents are going to be the most racist of the bunch. I'd like to see the precint data once the election is over, it's going to be bad.

My advice: Just wait.