1980 vs. 2008

[Nym90]

Is there any evidence that the voters who supported Bush over Reagan ended up breaking for Carter in the general in 1980? That the demographic groups who voted for Bush deserted the GOP ticket in the fall?

Now granted, Bush was Reagan's running mate, whereas Clinton almost certainly won't be Obama's. But on the other hand, there were real ideological disagreements between Bush and Reagan, whereas Clinton and Obama don't have that.

Just trying to see if there is any historical precedent for supporters of the losing candidate in a nasty, divisive primary deserting the ultimate primary winner in the general, especially for a candidate of an incumbent party when the incumbent President has horrid approval ratings.

[auburntiger]

I think 1976 or 1960 would be a better comparison to this year

[Nym90]

I think 1976 or 1960 would be a better comparison to this year

Well, we didn't have the modern primary system in 1960, of course.

And supporters of Reagan in 1976 would have been very unlikely to go for Carter in the general considering Reagan was more conservative than Ford, as opposed to Bush who was more moderate than Reagan (more analagous to now, since Clinton is perceived as more moderate than Obama, though of course the differences are extremely small).

[auburntiger]

I think 1976 or 1960 would be a better comparison to this year

Well, we didn't have the modern primary system in 1960, of course.

And supporters of Reagan in 1976 would have been very unlikely to go for Carter in the general considering Reagan was more conservative than Ford, as opposed to Bush who was more moderate than Reagan (more analagous to now, since Clinton is perceived as more moderate than Obama, though of course the differences are extremely small).

There was a poll a few weeks ago that said 26% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama became the nominee. That's huge! Of course, I know that margin of support wouldn't hold, maybe 10% is more likely. But as far as 1980 comparison goes, we're not going to see an electoral sweep like that this year.

Now if you guys lose this year, a landslide wouldn't be out of the question in 2012, especially if  Mark Warner were the nominee...heck I might even vote for him.

but back to your original question about Bush supporters breaking for Carter in 1980, possibly voters in Vermont and Maine, given that those states swung towards Carter when everything else swung to the right

[J. J.]

I think we are on the cusp of a re-alignment, but I would say 2010-16 for the start.  I think this one is more like 1976 as well, with a Clinton/Obama race being Reagan/Ford.

[Gustaf]

I think 1976 or 1960 would be a better comparison to this year

Well, we didn't have the modern primary system in 1960, of course.

And supporters of Reagan in 1976 would have been very unlikely to go for Carter in the general considering Reagan was more conservative than Ford, as opposed to Bush who was more moderate than Reagan (more analagous to now, since Clinton is perceived as more moderate than Obama, though of course the differences are extremely small).

The South was pretty solidly Reagan/Carter.

What I think you're over-looking is that historical precedent seems to indicate that the ideological splits within the GOP are easily patched-up while the cultural splits within the Democratic party are not. But Kennedy in the South in 1960, McGovern everywhere in 1972, Ford among "Reagan Democrats" in 1976, Carter among Catholics in 1980 may all be examples of what you're looking for.