Nixon/Morton vs. Johnson/Kennedy-1956

[GPORTER]

Eisenhower is disabled after his second heart attack in the summer of 1955. Eisenhower consults with his doctors and he decides to not seek reelection. Eisenhower does not make any endorsement of any one candidate. Nixon runs for the GOP nomination and he is only challenged by Harold Stassen. Stassen quickly drops out of the running and Nixon wins the GOP nomination unamiously on the first ballot at the RNC. Eisenhower addresses the convention from the White House. Nixon selects Thurston Morton of Kentucky as his running mate.

On the democratic side, Adlai Stevenson decides not to run. He does not endorse any major candidate. Kennedy runs, as does Humphrey, and Johnson. Humphrey does poorly in the first few primaries and therefore drops out early. Johnson and Kennedy take it down to the end. Both winning an equal amount of primaries. Johnson wins by about 15 delegates on the first ballot. Johnson selects Kennedy as his running mate to unite the party. Kennedy agrees and joins the ticket.

Discuss with maps. Please give an explanation to your map.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nixon wins, 294-237

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Any other ideas?

How about you post a map?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Nixon: 281 electoral votes
Nixon: 250 electoral votes

Two major problems with that map:

1.  Why would LBJ manage to lose Tennessee to Nixon, who I highly doubt would benefit from Eisenhower against LBJ.
2.  How could Nixon defeat Nixon?

[Joe Republic]

Nixon: 281 electoral votes
Nixon: 250 electoral votes

Damn that Nixon, always up to no good.  Covering up Watergate... stealing electoral votes...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Richard M. Nixon/Thruston B. Morton (R): 330 EV, 51% of the PV
Lyndon B. Johnson/John F. Kennedy (D): 201 EV, 49% of the PV

Vice President Richard Nixon defeats Senator Lyndon B. Johnson to succeed Dwight Eisenhower as President. Johnson sweeps the entire south whilst adds Massachusetts, Rhode Island to the Democratic column thanks to Kennedy on the ticket.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thruston's homestate borders Tennessee and it went to Eisenhower in 1956. It would not turn away from a popular republican administration.

I don't buy that.  It's tough for a VP candidate to swing a home state, much less a bordering state, and Tennessee went to Ike by a very narrow margin in '52 and '56, so I doubt Nixon could swing it against the Southerner Johnson.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thruston's homestate borders Tennessee and it went to Eisenhower in 1956. It would not turn away from a popular republican administration.

I don't buy that.  It's tough for a VP candidate to swing a home state, much less a bordering state, and Tennessee went to Ike by a very narrow margin in '52 and '56, so I doubt Nixon could swing it against the Southerner Johnson.

Answer these questions then...

How did Tennessee vote for Nixon in 1960, 1968, and 1972?

How was Tennessee one of the closer states in 1964?

And yet, Tennessee just chose not to vote Nixon in 1956 when it voted for Nixon three other times. Do you really think you make sense?

In 1960 and 1968, it was close.  In 1964, it went by 11%, which is not all that close.  In 1972, that was just a landslide.  Besides, in 1956 it was still a Dixiecrat state, and LBJ had the backing of every Southerner in Congress.  It barely went to Ike in '56 against Adlai, so I think it would've gone to Lyndon.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thruston's homestate borders Tennessee and it went to Eisenhower in 1956. It would not turn away from a popular republican administration.

I don't buy that.  It's tough for a VP candidate to swing a home state, much less a bordering state, and Tennessee went to Ike by a very narrow margin in '52 and '56, so I doubt Nixon could swing it against the Southerner Johnson.

Answer these questions then...

How did Tennessee vote for Nixon in 1960, 1968, and 1972?

How was Tennessee one of the closer states in 1964?

And yet, Tennessee just chose not to vote Nixon in 1956 when it voted for Nixon three other times. Do you really think you make sense?

In 1960 and 1968, it was close.  In 1964, it went by 11%, which is not all that close.  In 1972, that was just a landslide.  Besides, in 1956 it was still a Dixiecrat state, and LBJ had the backing of every Southerner in Congress.  It barely went to Ike in '56 against Adlai, so I think it would've gone to Lyndon.

Your explanation for 1960 and 1968 is that it was close. Who said that it was not close in this scenario?

You didn't say either way; but since it went to Ike by under 1% both times, and since Nixon won in a close race, I'd give Tennessee to LBJ.