Casey/Gore vs. Bush/Quayle vs. Perot/Stockdale-1992
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  Casey/Gore vs. Bush/Quayle vs. Perot/Stockdale-1992
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Author Topic: Casey/Gore vs. Bush/Quayle vs. Perot/Stockdale-1992  (Read 2241 times)
GPORTER
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« on: May 11, 2008, 07:42:52 AM »



Bush is narrowly reelected.

Bush/Quayle: 275
Casey/Gore: 259
Perot/Stockdale: 4
270 needed to win

The key states in the election are New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. Michigan falls to Casey. New Jersey, and Wisconsin fall to Bush. Then, it comes down to Ohio, and it goes to Bush by 200 votes out of 4.9 Million votes cast.
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Sensei
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2008, 09:39:20 AM »

is this a serious map?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2008, 01:18:26 PM »


Yes, and I can explain my thinking behind each state. Though I should not have to.

Actually, that's the whole point of this board, is to make maps and explain you're thinking.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2008, 02:03:55 PM »

Casey would demolish Bush.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2008, 02:04:41 PM »

Lets start from the east and go west...

Maine-one of Perot's best states. With not as strong of a democratic candidate running, Perot can take the lead in Maine and he carries the state narrowly.

New Hampshire-back then and even today one of the most republican reliable states in that part of the country. Bush finished a close second there in real life in 1992 and he carried the state big time in 1988. New Hampshire had not voted for a democrat since 1964 and that was a democratic landslide.

Vermont-close, but no cigar for Bush. The reason that it was close was because in those days it was still somewhat republican, but it was trending democrat and Bush's loss in that state proved the trend.

Massachussetts-a strongly democratic state. Bush lost it to Dukakis and Reagan carried it twice, but he was Ronald Reagan and he had great appeal among "Reagan Democrats." Those voters helped reagan carry the state, but Bush did not have those type of voters.

Rhode Island-a strongly democratic state.

Connecticut-another closer state in that area. Bush was born there and that gave him some appeal, but not enough.

New York-one of the closer states in 1980 and 1984. Bush lost it in 1988 and 1992 was not going to be any different.

Pennsylvania-Casey's homestate.

New Jersey-one of the more reliable republican states in that part of the country at that time.

Maryland-trending democrat at that time.

Delaware-trending democrat and as Pennsylvania goes, so does Delaware.

West Virgnia-loss for Reagan in 1980 and a narrow win in 1984. Bush lost it in 1988 and again in 1992.

Virgnia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi-strong republican states.

Georgia-while it did go democratic in real life, with a weaker democratic candidate, it votes for Bush.

Florida-Bush got over 60% of the vote there in 1988 and he narrowly won it in real life in 1992.

Louisiana-stayed with the republicans in this scenario.

Tennessee-homestate of vice president Gore and the most southern democratic state at that time.

Arkansas-Bill Clinton works hard there for Casey and swings the state.

Illinois-with no Reagan on the ticket and a democratic trend, Bush looses the state by a solid margin.

Indiana-Quayle's homestate

Ohio-close and the Bush camp can lower the number of Perot voters just enough to take the state and the election with it.

Michigan-very close as well. Bush looses it mainly because of Perot and a strong democratic trend in northern Michigan.

Wisconsin-was close in 1988 and voted for Reagan twice. Bush takes back Wisconsin for the republicans.

Minnesota, Iowa-strong democratic states.

Missouri-narrow Bush win. Bush camp wins it because the democratic nominee was not very strong.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma-strong republican states.

Texas-though it was close in real life in 1992, with a weaker democratic nominee, Bush carries it by about seven points.

New Mexico-close in 1988, though a big win for Reagan both in 1980 and 1984. Bush looses it because of a democratic trend there.

Colorado-close like many other states, but with a weak democratic nominee, Bush pulls out a squeaker of a victory there.

Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Arizona-strong republican states. Wyoming and Arizona are in the 30% because of Perot.

Nevada- a narrow Bush victory. Because of a weaker democratic nominee, the state sticks with the republicans one more time.

California-went for Bush narrowly in 1988 mostly because of Ronald Reagan and a still core group of republicans there. But, Bush only taking it by a narrow margin in 1988 showed that the core group of republicans was weak. By, 1992 the core group is gone and Bush looses it by ten points.

Oregon, Washington-not very close. Democratic trends there.

Alaska-strong Bush state. Only 30% becasue of Perot.

Hawaii-strong democratic state.

1.  Massachusetts: Reagan only won in 1980 because of Anderson, and 1984 was a landslide.

2.  Maine: Clinton won by 8 points over Bush and Perot; I don't see Casey losing 9 points to swing the state.

3.  New Hampshire: Lots of blue collar voters there, the Perot factor helps Casey keep the state.

4.  New Jersey: It was never reliably Republican, and much of the appeal Casey has in Pennsylvania will go likewise in New Jersey, so I see Casey winning there.

5.  Arkansas: Much of the swing in Arkansas was due to Clinton; Bush won it by a big margin in '88, and against Casey I think he would have won it in '92.

6.  Ohio: See New Jersey.

7.  Wisconsin: A weaker version of the New Jersey logic; high Catholic turnout helps Casey hold the state.

My map goes something like this:

A victory for Casey, 308-230.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2008, 02:49:36 PM »

Lets start from the east and go west...

Maine-one of Perot's best states. With not as strong of a democratic candidate running, Perot can take the lead in Maine and he carries the state narrowly.

New Hampshire-back then and even today one of the most republican reliable states in that part of the country. Bush finished a close second there in real life in 1992 and he carried the state big time in 1988. New Hampshire had not voted for a democrat since 1964 and that was a democratic landslide.

Vermont-close, but no cigar for Bush. The reason that it was close was because in those days it was still somewhat republican, but it was trending democrat and Bush's loss in that state proved the trend.

Massachussetts-a strongly democratic state. Bush lost it to Dukakis and Reagan carried it twice, but he was Ronald Reagan and he had great appeal among "Reagan Democrats." Those voters helped reagan carry the state, but Bush did not have those type of voters.

Rhode Island-a strongly democratic state.

Connecticut-another closer state in that area. Bush was born there and that gave him some appeal, but not enough.

New York-one of the closer states in 1980 and 1984. Bush lost it in 1988 and 1992 was not going to be any different.

Pennsylvania-Casey's homestate.

New Jersey-one of the more reliable republican states in that part of the country at that time.

Maryland-trending democrat at that time.

Delaware-trending democrat and as Pennsylvania goes, so does Delaware.

West Virgnia-loss for Reagan in 1980 and a narrow win in 1984. Bush lost it in 1988 and again in 1992.

Virgnia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi-strong republican states.

Georgia-while it did go democratic in real life, with a weaker democratic candidate, it votes for Bush.

Florida-Bush got over 60% of the vote there in 1988 and he narrowly won it in real life in 1992.

Louisiana-stayed with the republicans in this scenario.

Tennessee-homestate of vice president Gore and the most southern democratic state at that time.

Arkansas-Bill Clinton works hard there for Casey and swings the state.

Illinois-with no Reagan on the ticket and a democratic trend, Bush looses the state by a solid margin.

Indiana-Quayle's homestate

Ohio-close and the Bush camp can lower the number of Perot voters just enough to take the state and the election with it.

Michigan-very close as well. Bush looses it mainly because of Perot and a strong democratic trend in northern Michigan.

Wisconsin-was close in 1988 and voted for Reagan twice. Bush takes back Wisconsin for the republicans.

Minnesota, Iowa-strong democratic states.

Missouri-narrow Bush win. Bush camp wins it because the democratic nominee was not very strong.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma-strong republican states.

Texas-though it was close in real life in 1992, with a weaker democratic nominee, Bush carries it by about seven points.

New Mexico-close in 1988, though a big win for Reagan both in 1980 and 1984. Bush looses it because of a democratic trend there.

Colorado-close like many other states, but with a weak democratic nominee, Bush pulls out a squeaker of a victory there.

Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Arizona-strong republican states. Wyoming and Arizona are in the 30% because of Perot.

Nevada- a narrow Bush victory. Because of a weaker democratic nominee, the state sticks with the republicans one more time.

California-went for Bush narrowly in 1988 mostly because of Ronald Reagan and a still core group of republicans there. But, Bush only taking it by a narrow margin in 1988 showed that the core group of republicans was weak. By, 1992 the core group is gone and Bush looses it by ten points.

Oregon, Washington-not very close. Democratic trends there.

Alaska-strong Bush state. Only 30% becasue of Perot.

Hawaii-strong democratic state.

1.  Massachusetts: Reagan only won in 1980 because of Anderson, and 1984 was a landslide.

2.  Maine: Clinton won by 8 points over Bush and Perot; I don't see Casey losing 9 points to swing the state.

3.  New Hampshire: Lots of blue collar voters there, the Perot factor helps Casey keep the state.

4.  New Jersey: It was never reliably Republican, and much of the appeal Casey has in Pennsylvania will go likewise in New Jersey, so I see Casey winning there.

5.  Arkansas: Much of the swing in Arkansas was due to Clinton; Bush won it by a big margin in '88, and against Casey I think he would have won it in '92.

6.  Ohio: See New Jersey.

7.  Wisconsin: A weaker version of the New Jersey logic; high Catholic turnout helps Casey hold the state.

My map goes something like this:

A victory for Casey, 308-230.

And there is a great example of a democratic hack.

I could comment on every state that you commented on, but I will only do it on a few...

Maine-Perot came in second in real life in 1992. You must be dening that Casey is a weaker candidate for the democrats than Clinton was. With Casey being weaker and Perot already being strong, Perot narrowly takes the state.

New Jersey-if it was never relaibly republican, then explain in detail why it went republican from 1948 until 1988 with the only exceptions being 1960 and 1964.

Regarding Maine: Casey is not 5 points weaker than Clinton in New England, which is what would need to happen for Perot to win.

Regarding New Jersey: I'll give you that it went Republican most times, but it was close.  Being close but going one way does not make it reliable; if it did, then Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would be reliably Democratic.

I fail to see how I can be a hack based on what I've given in this thread.
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2008, 04:36:09 PM »

Casey would win this election. A Casey/Gore ticket would win over some dissastified Bush supporters and thus Perot would probably gain some supporters.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2008, 06:51:33 PM »

gporter's map isn't terrible, actually.
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War on Want
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2008, 06:53:41 PM »

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2008, 08:23:16 PM »


It isn't terrible, I just disagree on the logic, and he's attacking me for being a hack.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2008, 08:25:35 PM »

I vote Casey and he wins
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