TX: Rasmussen: McCain ahead of Clinton by 6 and Obama by 5

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Texas President by Rasmussen on 2008-05-01

Summary: D: 43%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ChrisFromNJ]

Add around 10 points to each and that is your general election result in November.

[Nutmeg]

Add around 10 points to each and that is your general election result in November.

Yes, 58 McCain to 53 Obama will likely be the final result.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Add around 10 points to each and that is your general election result in November.

Yes, 58 McCain to 53 Obama will likely be the final result.

I was referring to margin of defeat. Hillary will lose by 15, Obama will lose by 15.

[Wiz in Wis]

Add around 10 points to each and that is your general election result in November.

Yes, 58 McCain to 53 Obama will likely be the final result.

NO CLINTON MATH!

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well TX may be this close. In 2000 and 2004 Bush did have home-state adv.

[Padfoot]

Add around 10 points to each and that is your general election result in November.

Yes, 58 McCain to 53 Obama will likely be the final result.

I was referring to margin of defeat. Hillary will lose by 15, Obama will lose by 15.

I doubt it.  An increase in black turnout and/or Hispanics moving away from the GOP will keep the margin under 15.

[Lief 🗽]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

[Aizen]

BOLD PREDICTION: Obama wins California by a bigger margin than McCain wins Texas.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

BOLD PREDICTION: Obama wins California by a bigger margin than McCain wins Texas.

Neither state has a chance of being in play.

[Eraserhead]

BOLD PREDICTION: Obama wins California by a bigger margin than McCain wins Texas.

Neither state has a chance of being in play.

He didn't say they were.

[kevinatcausa]

So if we take this poll and the previous poll as gospel, Obama's running better against McCain in Texas than New Hampshire.

Somehow I doubt it.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

BOLD PREDICTION: Obama wins California by a bigger margin than McCain wins Texas.

Neither state has a chance of being in play.

He didn't say they were.

I didn't say he said they were.  I was just following up his comment, clarrifying it with my opinion.

[Stranger in a strange land]

BOLD PREDICTION: Obama wins California by a bigger margin than McCain wins Texas.

Neither state has a chance of being in play.

He didn't say they were.

I didn't say he said they were.  I was just following up his comment, clarrifying it with my opinion.

I'm actually going to second this prediction.

California:
Obama 55
McCain 44
Other 1

Texas
McCain 54
Obama 44
Other 2

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well TX may be this close. In 2000 and 2004 Bush did have home-state adv.

In '04 he won by 23%, in '00 he won by 21%; I doubt home-state advantage added 15-18% to his performance.  Maybe Obama will get the margin down to 15%, something like 57-42.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

[Lief 🗽]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

Have you seen how much money Obama and Clinton are raising in the primary? Now compare that to the $12 million a month McCain is struggling to bring in.

[Gustaf]

Lief, did it ever cross your mind that there is an overall limit to how much money can be raised? Spending this much on the primary may mean that people will bring up less money for the GE. I suspect that more people are willing to give money to help McCain beat Obama than were willing to do so in order to make him the GOP candidate.

Anyway, an interesting question is whether Texas or Massachusetts will be closer this year.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

Have you seen how much money Obama and Clinton are raising in the primary? Now compare that to the $12 million a month McCain is struggling to bring in.

But it's not like his primary donors are willing to spend unlimited amounts to get him elected. Especially if he has tons of average people donating like he brags about. The GOP's base fundraisers have hardly been tapped, while much of the Dems are being milked dry already. Bush raised $367 million last cycle. The GOP has the potential to far outraise the Democrats. Not saying they will, but you act like Obama will have $1 billion to run ads in all 50 states. He won't.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

Virginia is not in the same category as those other states.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

Virginia is not in the same category as those other states.

Maybe not, but it's still unlikely he carries the state. He can throw all the money he wants at it.

[Josh/Devilman88]

On the other hand, Obama has the money to spend in Texas. If McCain is forced to spend his money in Texas, then there's no way he can win the election.

Yes, the typical answer. How much will he have? Bush had $367 million in 2004 and he didn't run ads in frivolous states. Obama will apparently be running ads in Texas, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

What amount of money do you expect Obama to have? Over a billion?

Virginia is not in the same category as those other states.

Maybe not, but it's still unlikely he carries the state. He can throw all the money he wants at it.

Hmm, no Obama has a very good chance at carrying VA.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I must admit, I am quite surprised that Obama is within 5 points of McCain in Texas. I would have thought that Clinton would have been at Obama's position in this latest Rasmussen poll and Obama would be trailing McCain by about 10.

We all know that Obama nor Clinton will win Texas and it's 34 Electoral College votes in the General. Nor will Texas be decided under 10 points. The Democrats will be lucky to get within 15 points of McCain in the General. My prediction, McCain by 15-17 points over Obama.