tennessee and dc, 1988

[WalterMitty]

those were the only two 'states' (for lack of a better term) that swung to bush.

dc is understandable.  reagan was very unpopular in the black community (for good reason)

but why the hell was tennessee so much closer than other southern states in 84?  that baffles me.

[Хahar 🤔]

That's interesting. My first guess is coattails from some other candidate, but the Atlas has no other 1984 Tennessee maps, so it's impossible to know for sure.

[memphis]

Look at where Mondale did best. Three letters. TVA. Ditto for a few counties in North Alabama.

[Nym90]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

[auburntiger]

It's hard to believe that my home county (Shelby) actually pulled the lever for a Republican back then

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

It's hard to believe that my home county (Shelby) actually pulled the lever for a Republican back then

We had a slight Republican majority in the county from around 1983-1991 or so.  Note that DeSoto county, MS became Republican shortly thereafter

[WalterMitty]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

mondale's strength in southwest virginia can largely be credited to the united mine workers.  mondale was a wet dream of organized labor.

[Mr.Phips]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

The one district in Alabama where you can see a real change is AL-04.  Both Mondale and Dukakis got around 40% there, while John Kerry only got 28%.  What happened here?

[Nym90]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

The one district in Alabama where you can see a real change is AL-04.  Both Mondale and Dukakis got around 40% there, while John Kerry only got 28%.  What happened here?

Kerry had very little appeal to white working class voters.

Something that people predicting that Obama will do worse than Kerry among this group should keep in mind. Kerry already did worse than Mondale and Dukakis with much of the working class....it can't really get much lower no matter how much racism is out there. Obama is not going to do as badly as McGovern did with these folks.....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and that area is very working class. Mostly old mining and textile towns. Also has an unusually high level of union membership for somewhere that far southeast.

[Mr.Phips]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

The one district in Alabama where you can see a real change is AL-04.  Both Mondale and Dukakis got around 40% there, while John Kerry only got 28%.  What happened here?

Kerry had very little appeal to white working class voters.

Something that people predicting that Obama will do worse than Kerry among this group should keep in mind. Kerry already did worse than Mondale and Dukakis with much of the working class....it can't really get much lower no matter how much racism is out there. Obama is not going to do as badly as McGovern did with these folks.....

The problem with AL-04 for Obama is that there are almost no black voters.  I am just curious to see if Obama can beat McGovern's 22% here. 

[Sam Spade]

Tennessee wasn't that much different than the rest of the South in 1984, though it was the only state in the region where Reagan failed to break 60 percent.

Mondale did pretty well relatively speaking in North Central Eastern Tennessee, where he actually did better than Carter in a few counties. This was also true of a few counties in western Virginia as well (although not in Alabama...his showing looks good in retrospect compared to Kerry, but at the time he did very poorly for a Democrat in northern Alabama).

Dukakis did very poorly in central and western Tennessee. He lost both Davidson county (Nashvile) and Shelby county (Memphis). Mondale lost both, too, but by narrower margins than Dukakis in each.

mondale's strength in southwest virginia can largely be credited to the united mine workers.  mondale was a wet dream of organized labor.

Mondale also had an excellent GOTV effort (for his time) through the union apparatus.  In TN, at least, most of them voted for him.  Can't say the same for the industrial NE, obviously.

[Kevinstat]

Al Gore was first elected to the U.S. Senate from Tennesee in 1984, replacing Republican then-Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker who chose not to run again.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Al Gore was first elected to the U.S. Senate from Tennesee in 1984, replacing Republican then-Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker who chose not to run again.

With 61% as well.