Gaming the States 2, day 7: New York

[HappyWarrior]

If McCain picks the right running mate, New York will go for McCain.

If you had any neurons,you'd finally understand that you know NOTHING about politics...

In fact I know more than you do about presidential politics. And, polling shows that in McCain/Rice, New York would go to the GOP if the election were held today. Do you even look at polls or do you just call states the way that you want for them to go, each time giving the democrats a victory? I think that you call things the way that you want for them to be just so that the democrats will win every time.

There were also polls saying the dems would win SC.  If you believe polls so much you must have that on any prediction maps.

[SomeLawStudent]

I think he'll probably get around the same margins Gore and Kerry got.  He'll probably do worse in the suburbs, but I think the black turnout might be massive and more unified for him, which would cancel that out.  Plus there are a ton of college students in the state.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think he'll probably get around the same margins Gore and Kerry got.  He'll probably do worse in the suburbs, but I think the black turnout might be massive and more unified for him, which would cancel that out.  Plus there are a ton of college students in the state.

And college students have a proven track record of turning out.

[Smash255]

56-43 or so. Obama won't break 60% in New York. Right now some people have advocated that he'll break 60% in MA, NY, CT, and VT? Get real.

Vermont could be a possibility.  It has plenty of liberals and wealthy "lefties" that would definitely boost his vote total.  I say:

Vermont: 61-38
Massachusetts: 56-43
New York: 57-43
Connecticut: 58-41

I do believe Vermont will be about 62% for Obama. I was just saying it is unrealistic to think ALL those states could go 60% for Obama, which some have said could happen sans NH.

I can't see him breaking 60% in ME, RI, CT, and NY.  Almost certainly in VT, and I think he will in MA.

Race plays too much of an issue in MA, and McCain isn't as hated as many other Republicans. Kerry only got 61% and it's his home state.

Race really doesn't play much of an issue in MA, possibly in the Primary, but not the General.  The state does have an African American Gov who won in a landslide.

[Smash255]

In Obama-McCain, the place to watch in NY will be the New York suburbs (and the outer boroughs, too) - not necessarily upstate, excepting the old metropolitan working-class areas, of course.

Not really.  McCain will obviously do better here on LI and the other metro NYC areas than Huckabee would, but the war is just going to kill him here.   In 04 Kerry beat Bush by 18 and that was with the Bush bounce which is gone nnow impacting the NYC suburbs.  Obama 60-61%

[Sam Spade]

In Obama-McCain, the place to watch in NY will be the New York suburbs (and the outer boroughs, too) - not necessarily upstate, excepting the old metropolitan working-class areas, of course.

Not really.  McCain will obviously do better here on LI and the other metro NYC areas than Huckabee would, but the war is just going to kill him here.   In 04 Kerry beat Bush by 18 and that was with the Bush bounce which is gone nnow impacting the NYC suburbs.  Obama 60-61%

Your analysis of the area you live tends to be extremely *interesting*, as demonstrated beautifully during this year's primary.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

56-43 or so. Obama won't break 60% in New York. Right now some people have advocated that he'll break 60% in MA, NY, CT, and VT? Get real.

Vermont could be a possibility.  It has plenty of liberals and wealthy "lefties" that would definitely boost his vote total.  I say:

Vermont: 61-38
Massachusetts: 56-43
New York: 57-43
Connecticut: 58-41

I do believe Vermont will be about 62% for Obama. I was just saying it is unrealistic to think ALL those states could go 60% for Obama, which some have said could happen sans NH.

I can't see him breaking 60% in ME, RI, CT, and NY.  Almost certainly in VT, and I think he will in MA.

Race plays too much of an issue in MA, and McCain isn't as hated as many other Republicans. Kerry only got 61% and it's his home state.

Race really doesn't play much of an issue in MA, possibly in the Primary, but not the General.  The state does have an African American Gov who won in a landslide.

Local politics is much different than national ones. They also elected a Republican as governor in 2002. Not a good comparison. If race isn't as an issue, I am interested in your explanation in why Obama is showed in a dead heat in MA with McCain, while Clinton puts him away with no problem.

[Sbane]

The Dem bias in NY with Obama as the Dem nominee, might erode down to 5% vis a vis the nation at best, but that means McCain must win the popular vote by 5%, to win NY in a best case scenario. New York just isn't an election decider lynch pin state, until a bunch of polls after Obama is the nominee, and both candidates are seasoned, tells me that I have it wrong.

Is this based on anything at all? New York seems like a place Obama would do very well in, especially because the 9/11 bounce of 2004 will be gone and those LI suburbs may swing significantly to the dems.

[Smash255]

In Obama-McCain, the place to watch in NY will be the New York suburbs (and the outer boroughs, too) - not necessarily upstate, excepting the old metropolitan working-class areas, of course.

Not really.  McCain will obviously do better here on LI and the other metro NYC areas than Huckabee would, but the war is just going to kill him here.   In 04 Kerry beat Bush by 18 and that was with the Bush bounce which is gone nnow impacting the NYC suburbs.  Obama 60-61%

Your analysis of the area you live tends to be extremely *interesting*, as demonstrated beautifully during this year's primary.

I'll admit I screwed up the Primary predictions here, I underestimated how popular Clinton was with Democrats in my area.  With that being said it doesn't change the political dynamics of the area, which will make it very hard for McCain to do much of anything especially with his position on the war.

[Sam Spade]

In Obama-McCain, the place to watch in NY will be the New York suburbs (and the outer boroughs, too) - not necessarily upstate, excepting the old metropolitan working-class areas, of course.

Not really.  McCain will obviously do better here on LI and the other metro NYC areas than Huckabee would, but the war is just going to kill him here.   In 04 Kerry beat Bush by 18 and that was with the Bush bounce which is gone nnow impacting the NYC suburbs.  Obama 60-61%

Your analysis of the area you live tends to be extremely *interesting*, as demonstrated beautifully during this year's primary.

I'll admit I screwed up the Primary predictions here, I underestimated how popular Clinton was with Democrats in my area.  With that being said it doesn't change the political dynamics of the area, which will make it very hard for McCain to do much of anything especially with his position on the war.

Right, because Clinton's popularity had so much to do with her showing in New York.

[Brittain33]

Right, because Clinton's popularity had so much to do with her showing in New York.

A senator with ties to local party officials up and down the state, who made a point about having good constituent services and connections everywhere? Of course it mattered. She's not a New Yorker, but she's a firm part of the N.Y. political establishment.

[Alcon]

Sam, I'm surprised to hear you say that.  I agree with Brittain.  Have you seen some of the precinct returns from parts of the upper east side?

[Sam Spade]

Sam, I'm surprised to hear you say that.  I agree with Brittain.  Have you seen some of the precinct returns from parts of the upper east side?

Well, first of all - what tends to live on the upper east side, presuming you and I are discussing the same things here?

[Alcon]

Sam, I'm surprised to hear you say that.  I agree with Brittain.  Have you seen some of the precinct returns from parts of the upper east side?

Well, first of all - what tends to live on the upper east side, presuming you and I are discussing the same things here?

I'm speaking to more of the affluent condo areas...and not the old money ones.  Why?

[classical liberal]

Old money 's Obama.

In any case, my model puts NY at Obama +11 relative to the national margin.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New York
Obama v McCain - 56-43
Clinton v McCain - 60-39

[Brittain33]

Well, first of all - what tends to live on the upper east side, presuming you and I are discussing the same things here?

I can't speak for Alcon, but I know the answer isn't "Jews."

[Alcon]

Uh, yeah, the answer is not Jews.

[Torie]

Uh, yeah, the answer is not Jews.

Rich foreigners?

[Alcon]

Uh, yeah, the answer is not Jews.

Rich foreigners?

I'm relatively sure that some of the Park Ave. precincts where Clinton performed very strongly are thoroughly WASPy.  (I can't confirm the ASP part, but the W part is clear.)

If you mean jet-set condo foreigners, I doubt they do much voting, but I don't know why that would explain much.  The block groups I'm looking at have a below-average number of foreign-borns anyway, by Manhattan standards.

[Torie]

Uh, yeah, the answer is not Jews.

Rich foreigners?

I'm relatively sure that some of the Park Ave. precincts where Clinton performed very strongly are thoroughly WASPy.  (I can't confirm the ASP part, but the W part is clear.)

If you mean jet-set condo foreigners, I doubt they do much voting, but I don't know why that would explain much.  The block groups I'm looking at have a below-average number of foreign-borns anyway, by Manhattan standards.

Is it legal for WASP's to live in Manhattan? 

In any event, I was just positing that there might be a lot of non voters on certain blocks. Heck, my aunt has a pied a terre somewhere around there. Her zip code of residence however is 90210.  Where"s Rush Limbaugh's place? 

[Alcon]

I would imagine most people complete the Census at the address where they vote too, but perhaps I'm wrong.  Nonetheless, there are simply some blocks that are full of wealthy white people in Manhattan, and Clinton outperformed her averages there.  It doesn't really matter how many of those are non-voters, when they all own multi-million dollar condos.  Precincts in NYC are oftentimes done at the block level.

Overall, I agree with Brittain.  Clinton's inclusion in the political establishment of New York helped her.

[Torie]

I would imagine most people complete the Census at the address where they vote too, but perhaps I'm wrong.  Nonetheless, there are simply some blocks that are full of wealthy white people in Manhattan, and Clinton outperformed her averages there.  It doesn't really matter how many of those are non-voters, when they all own multi-million dollar condos.  Precincts in NYC are oftentimes done at the block level.

Overall, I agree with Brittain.  Clinton's inclusion in the political establishment of New York helped her.

Are we sure that it is not the case that  among older rich whites (maybe outside the entertainment industry) Clinton isn't beating Obama most places?  (I think I will check out La Canada.) And yes, the Upper East Side is rather heavily Jewish, actually I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are NY precinct results online [question mark]

[Alcon]

Are we sure that it is not the case that  among older rich whites (maybe outside the entertainment industry) Clinton isn't beating Obama most places?  (I think I will check out La Canada.) And yes, the Upper East Side is rather heavily Jewish, actually I think.

Sorry, everyone is going to have to work with me a bit here on NYC geography.  The area to which I am speaking is an area extending from 3rd Avenue to Central Park, and between East 59th and East 96th.  The specific precincts I focused on were hyper-affluent ones located around 96th & Park, 86th & Madison, 80th & Park, 75th & Madison, and a few others that I cannot remember.  I also checked, and they range from a low of 9% above-65 to a high of 22%.  About 40% of my randomly-chosen precinct samples are in block groups in which half or more of the population is between ages 20 and 44.  I do not think my sample trends remarkably old for affluent areas.  In fact, most hyperaffluent areas actually trend older.

I'm not sure about Jews, but are Manhattan's elite heavily Jewish?  There's really no way to check religious affiliation, beyond proximity to a place of worship...and obviously, it's Manhattan, and too dense to be possible.