NY-Marist: McCain/Rice would beat Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama
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  NY-Marist: McCain/Rice would beat Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama
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Author Topic: NY-Marist: McCain/Rice would beat Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama  (Read 3328 times)
12th Doctor
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2008, 11:10:13 PM »

While I would say this poll way over samples GOP voters, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

There are many indications that Rice is very popular with older black voters in a way that Obama is not.

In general, the polls are showing a general trend towards McCain.  As I have long suspected, the long campaign is taking a toll on Democrat unity.

It's obvious that McCain isn't distancing himself from Bush on the war.  In fact, the Administration policy is the McCain policy.  I don't think he loses anything by going with Rice.  And he could gain alot more than he would by running with a typical white dude.
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Storebought
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« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2008, 11:17:33 PM »

While I would say this poll way over samples GOP voters, I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

There are many indications that Rice is very popular with older black voters in a way that Obama is not.

 I don't think he loses anything by going with Rice.  And he could gain alot more than he would by running with a typical white dude.

1. While I agree that the over-60s blacks have a good deal of mistrust for Obama, I'm not sure that they would like Rice better. Are there any polls which suggest it?

2. I disagree with the second point. McCain must pick a conservative, necessarily white, if only to keep a good deal of the George Bush Republicans (the self-styled "base") from bolting. These people dislike Rice about half as much as they do Colin Powell -- and they hate Powell.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #27 on: April 11, 2008, 12:28:49 AM »

Why wouldn't we add this poll. We add many other ridicules polls that favor the Democrats.
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Aizen
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« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2008, 12:53:59 AM »

Why wouldn't we add this poll. We add many other ridicules polls that favor the Democrats.


It's "ridiculous" you twat, why can't you spell
Your mind must be suffering from all that gel
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2008, 05:05:16 AM »

I beg your f**king pardon?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2008, 08:21:15 AM »

Rice would be a high-stake gamble. But I suspect it may turn off the GOP base a little too much.
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agcatter
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« Reply #31 on: April 11, 2008, 08:23:45 AM »

Rice wouldn't help.  Blacks aren't going to vote against Obama because Republicans nominate a black VP I don't believe.  Where's the upside?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2008, 08:26:55 AM »

Why wouldn't we add this poll. We add many other ridicules polls that favor the Democrats.


It's "ridiculous" you twat, why can't you spell
Your mind must be suffering from all that gel
Its a bird....its a plane....its...its....!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #33 on: April 11, 2008, 08:32:34 AM »

Rice wouldn't help.  Blacks aren't going to vote against Obama because Republicans nominate a black VP I don't believe.  Where's the upside?

It may get some dissatisified women voters. It would bring Republican on par with Democrats on the whole "historic election" business. What I think you're forgetting is that I suspect there a lot of whites who want to vote for a black guy and may live in the suburbs and be moderates in general terms. These sort of people could be swayed by a Rice pick. As I said, it'd be a gamble. I'd like it, for sure, but I think the base would react negatively. The negatives would sadly ooutweigh the positives in the end.
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J. J.
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« Reply #34 on: April 11, 2008, 08:47:55 AM »

Rice wouldn't help.  Blacks aren't going to vote against Obama because Republicans nominate a black VP I don't believe.  Where's the upside?

It may get some dissatisified women voters. It would bring Republican on par with Democrats on the whole "historic election" business. What I think you're forgetting is that I suspect there a lot of whites who want to vote for a black guy and may live in the suburbs and be moderates in general terms. These sort of people could be swayed by a Rice pick. As I said, it'd be a gamble. I'd like it, for sure, but I think the base would react negatively. The negatives would sadly ooutweigh the positives in the end.

I'm not sure it would hurt the base.  A lot of that base is a "national defense" or "security" base.  She could be an asset with that. 

Even on abortion, she's said that GW Bush "has been in exactly the right place."

She also has a more compelling personal story, in terms of race, than Obama.

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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2008, 09:04:39 AM »

Rice wouldn't help.  Blacks aren't going to vote against Obama because Republicans nominate a black VP I don't believe.  Where's the upside?

It may get some dissatisified women voters. It would bring Republican on par with Democrats on the whole "historic election" business. What I think you're forgetting is that I suspect there a lot of whites who want to vote for a black guy and may live in the suburbs and be moderates in general terms. These sort of people could be swayed by a Rice pick. As I said, it'd be a gamble. I'd like it, for sure, but I think the base would react negatively. The negatives would sadly ooutweigh the positives in the end.

I'm not sure it would hurt the base.  A lot of that base is a "national defense" or "security" base.  She could be an asset with that. 

Even on abortion, she's said that GW Bush "has been in exactly the right place."

She also has a more compelling personal story, in terms of race, than Obama.



It won't matter. The media will continue to gloat over Obama's personal history. Rice will be viewed as a wing of the Bush Administration picked so McCain can continue Bush's legacy and policies.
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Hash
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« Reply #36 on: April 11, 2008, 10:03:30 AM »

Let's not add these polls, please. They're ridiculous.

Of course, AHDuke will now call me a far-leftist.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2008, 11:18:37 PM »

Let's not add these polls, please. They're ridiculous.

Of course, AHDuke will now call me a far-leftist.

If we define ridiculous, then we might as well only add polls that look like the current prediction map average - otherwise, everybody's going to say that some poll is somewhat ridiculous.
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Smash255
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« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2008, 02:34:23 AM »

Let's not add these polls, please. They're ridiculous.

Of course, AHDuke will now call me a far-leftist.

If we define ridiculous, then we might as well only add polls that look like the current prediction map average - otherwise, everybody's going to say that some poll is somewhat ridiculous.
First off this is a poll which includes a VP match up which might not happen, secondly this poll is just beyond awful.  If a poll came out showing Obama ahead in a state like Oklahoma I doubt you would think we should count it, I wouldn't think it should.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2008, 03:29:05 AM »

People, we cannot disregard polls and exclude them from the database because we think they look off. If a pollster has a history of being really off (i.e. ARG) that is an argument. And I guess the VP selection is another one. But the margin itself I don't think we can do much about. Unless we want to impose a whole new set of standards here. Funny though that no one has said this about any poll showing Obama doing surprisingly well in some states... Tongue
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2008, 04:22:58 AM »

Let's not add these polls, please. They're ridiculous.

Of course, AHDuke will now call me a far-leftist.

If we define ridiculous, then we might as well only add polls that look like the current prediction map average - otherwise, everybody's going to say that some poll is somewhat ridiculous.
First off this is a poll which includes a VP match up which might not happen, secondly this poll is just beyond awful.  If a poll came out showing Obama ahead in a state like Oklahoma I doubt you would think we should count it, I wouldn't think it should.

You know, I almost made another thread for the very reason that people wouldn't pay attention, but then the forum would get mad.  The poll that I entered into the database was the poll with the question that didn't include a running mate.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #41 on: April 12, 2008, 04:44:48 AM »

In one word/internet slang: LOL

Did the pollsters at this polling company just ask upper class conservatives, who would have voted for William F. Buckley?
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