NY-Marist: McCain/Rice would beat Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama

[Gustaf]

Rice would be a high-stake gamble. But I suspect it may turn off the GOP base a little too much.

[Gustaf]

Rice wouldn't help.  Blacks aren't going to vote against Obama because Republicans nominate a black VP I don't believe.  Where's the upside?

It may get some dissatisified women voters. It would bring Republican on par with Democrats on the whole "historic election" business. What I think you're forgetting is that I suspect there a lot of whites who want to vote for a black guy and may live in the suburbs and be moderates in general terms. These sort of people could be swayed by a Rice pick. As I said, it'd be a gamble. I'd like it, for sure, but I think the base would react negatively. The negatives would sadly ooutweigh the positives in the end.

[Gustaf]

People, we cannot disregard polls and exclude them from the database because we think they look off. If a pollster has a history of being really off (i.e. ARG) that is an argument. And I guess the VP selection is another one. But the margin itself I don't think we can do much about. Unless we want to impose a whole new set of standards here. Funny though that no one has said this about any poll showing Obama doing surprisingly well in some states...