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  IA: Rasmussen: Obama up 4, Clinton down 15 against McCain
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Author Topic: IA: Rasmussen: Obama up 4, Clinton down 15 against McCain  (Read 2014 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 06, 2008, 06:57:39 am »
« edited: April 06, 2008, 07:13:29 am by Tender Branson »

New Poll: Iowa President by Rasmussen on 2008-04-01

Summary: D: 36%, R: 51%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Obama: 46%
McCain: 42%

McCain: 58% favorable - 41% unfavorable
Obama: 54% favorable - 45% unfavorable
Clinton: 37% favorable - 62% unfavorable
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2008, 07:01:17 am »

Iowa really likes Hillary ... Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2008, 08:20:02 am »

Sorry: bulls**t.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2008, 09:03:40 am »


What ?

The fact that Hillary has a lower favorable rating in IA than Obama in TN or the fact that Bush gets the same job approval ratings in IA and TN ? Or is it just the GE numbers ... ? Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2008, 09:07:13 am »

I find the Clinton unfavourable rating way too high. Which no doubt leads to an inflated Clinton/McCain margin.
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agcatter
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2008, 09:12:50 am »

I expect Obama to win Iowa by 3 or 4 points.  Iowa is one of those states like Colorado where Hillary would get clobbered.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2008, 11:03:46 am »

These numbers seem off.  Hillary has been running strong here for over a year, and is now down 15?  Seems weird to me.
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War on Want
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2008, 11:05:44 am »

Clinton is really probably down 10 not 15, but still she would get killed in Iowa. Iowans hate it when you lie and are untrustworthy with people in politics and in general, which is why Clinton would get killed here.(My Dad is from Iowa and he used to kinda like Clinton but now is pretty disgusted with her)
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2008, 11:25:05 am »

Yeah, she wouldn't lose by 15 but 10 or so wouldn't surprise me.
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Aizen
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2008, 11:30:34 am »

Is Iowa a lost cause for the GOP this year?
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War on Want
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2008, 11:34:02 am »

Is Iowa a lost cause for the GOP this year?
Against Obama, yes, but against Clinton, no. Obama is probably only going to improve slightly or stay at this point steady. Iowa will probably go 53-46 Obama, Winsconsin 52-48 Obama, and Minnesota 56-44 Obama.
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Ben.
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2008, 11:38:43 am »

Is Iowa a lost cause for the GOP this year?

Didn’t McCain come out against ethanol?

Obama’s been pretty adept (bearing in mind this is pre-General Election) in casting himself as the same kind of prairie-populist as folks like Tester, Ritter and Sebelius, which, in a place like Iowa goes down very well.

So McCain probably loses against Obama, but against someone like Clinton he’d be a much more competitive figure in a state like Iowa… as against Obama I could see the GOP taking a hit (no idea how big or small it might pan out as by election day) west of the Mississippi, but against Clinton I don’t see the GOP taking that kind of regional hit.    
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2008, 11:39:01 am »

These numbers seem off.  Hillary has been running strong here for over a year, and is now down 15?  Seems weird to me.

She hasn't been running strong against McCain at all, at least since late last year.  She has in fact been fairly steadily declining against him, although I doubt his lead is really as high as 15 pts.
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Meeker
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2008, 11:44:06 am »

Obama will win Iowa fairly easily... Clinton on the other hand
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2008, 11:49:59 am »

I thought Hillary always did poorly in Iowa? One thing's for sure--Iowa will most certainly flip if Obama is the nominee.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2008, 11:58:46 am »

Obama plays very well in Iowa. I think he'll beat McCain by 3-5%. Is it completely safe for Obama? Probably not. The Democrats will have to put some money into the state. But it is a state they must carry.

I do not think Hillary loses by 15% - 7 or 8% is probably more likely.
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agcatter
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2008, 01:15:11 pm »

I think we forget that in a horrible year for Democrats in 1988, Iowa went for Dukakis by 13 points!

Yeah, Im pretty sure that Iowa flips in 2008.  i'm thinking that New Mexico and nevada do the same thing.
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Verily
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2008, 01:18:08 pm »

Farm crisis. You know that, agcatter.
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agcatter
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2008, 01:21:39 pm »

but 13 in a Republican year?  Seems like a lot.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2008, 01:24:48 pm »

And this is why Clinton's "I'm more electable" argument is complete bull.  Sure she would probably win Ohio which would give her the election but there are other roads to the White House besides that one and frankly the Democrats can't afford to ignore those pathways. 

Obama will flip Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado which is enough to win and he'll probably flip Nevada too.  The Democrats need to increase their strength outside the North and the West Coast and Obama does that for them while Hillary does not.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2008, 01:28:54 pm »

And this is why Clinton's "I'm more electable" argument is complete bull.  Sure she would probably win Ohio which would give her the election but there are other roads to the White House besides that one and frankly the Democrats can't afford to ignore those pathways. 

Obama will flip Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado which is enough to win and he'll probably flip Nevada too.  The Democrats need to increase their strength outside the North and the West Coast and Obama does that for them while Hillary does not.

Very VERY few that could afford the loss of PA.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2008, 02:30:39 pm »

but 13 in a Republican year?  Seems like a lot.

I think you underestimate how badly the crisis affected Midwesterners in the 1980s, and how much the Reagan administration was viewed as to blame for it.
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Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
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« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2008, 03:52:42 pm »

but 13 in a Republican year?  Seems like a lot.

I think you underestimate how badly the crisis affected Midwesterners in the 1980s, and how much the Reagan administration was viewed as to blame for it.

Finally, somebody said it.  The farm and steel belts were hurt by Reagan.  By 1984, the Iron Range in MN was reeling from cheap foreign imports and they voted handily for Mondale.  By 1988 the farm crisis had really taken shape, which explains why Dukakis did so well in Iowa, western Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.


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Alcon
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« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2008, 03:59:14 pm »

The map truly says it all:



And it was 10, not 13, points (small matter).
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Nym90
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« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2008, 10:05:07 pm »

Iowa has never been a particularly kind state to the Clintons. It was the one and only state in the nation in which Clinton in 1992 did worse than Dukakis. Neither Bill in 1992 or Hillary in 2008 won the caucuses there, of course (though Harkin's favorite son candidacy helps explain Bill's loss).

But yeah, along with Wisconsin and Minnesota, another state where Obama clearly is the stronger candidate.
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