Electoral College Tie Analysis

[J.G.H.]

I'll analyze the fact that many Congressmen from conservative districts, of which there are many Democrats, would be under pressure to vote for the winner of their
district, McCain.  Especially the younger, more vulnerable ones. I made a list a while back analyzing how each state would vote.  The states that are tied or otherwise interesting follow.
We begin with 26 Democratic Delegations, 21 Republican, and 3 "Toss-up" (tied).

R-held Dem States:
DE:  Castle has the principles and political sense to vote for the Dems. Flip to: 27 D, 20 R, 3 T
MI:  9-6 R. Though Republicans hold a 9-6 advantage in this D state, the last redistricting was quite impressive, and none of them hold any particularly democratic-leaning district.  It'd take two of them to flip the state anyway.  Keep it at Republican.
NV:  2-1 R. It's hard to say, really.  Dems could, in theory, pick up a seat to give this one a 2-1 Dem delegation, or Porter might be under pressure to vote with the Dems, especially since Obama wins the state in this scenario.  Flip to Toss-up:  27 D, 19 R, 4 T
NM:  2-1 R. Wilson's seat seems to lean Democratic, which would give them a majority.  Flip to Dems: 28 D, 18 R, 4 T

Tied States:
AZ:  4-4. Hard to say.  Giffords could lose, theoretically, or be under pressure to vote R, particularly since McCain is from AZ and would likely win her district by a large amount.  Renzi's seat may be lost, but McCain's coattails may save it.  Keep at Toss-Up.
KS:  2-2. If Boyda survives and she wants to have hope that she'll survive again, she'll vote R.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 19 R, 3 T
MS:  2-2. Gene Taylor has the principles and political sense to vote for the Rs.  Flip to Rep: 28 D, 20 R, 2 T

D-held Rep States
AR:  3-1 D. Given how stable the local Dems are and how weak the Reps are, the Democratic members are unlikely to feel any particular push to vote R.  Keep it at Dem.
CO: 4-3 D. Under this plan, Obama wouldn't win CO, but I'm sure it would be very close.  The only Dem that  might feel the heat to switch would be Salazar, but his district would probably be pretty close regardless.  Keep this one Dem for now.
IN:  5-4 D. Three out of the five Democrats represent conservative districts, and I'll eat my hat if at least one of them doesn't switch their support.  Flip to Rep: 27 D, 21 R, 2 T
NC:  7-6 D. Dems hold only 1 more seat, and Shuler in particular may switch.  Hayes is in danger of losing his seat, but his successor would be wise to vote R in any case.  Flip to Toss-up: 26 D, 21 R, 3 T
ND:  Logically, Pomeroy should switch.  Flip to Rep: 25 D, 22 R, 3 T
SD:  Herseth Sandlin said herself in 2004 she would vote for the Republican if forced to choose.  Flip to Rep: 24 D, 23 R, 3 T
TN:  5-4 D. On paper, this one would be a good candidate, but I'm not seeing it.  Davis would be the only candidate to switch, but let's put this one into Toss-up for now, anyway: 23 D, 23 R, 4 T
WV:  2-1 D. Given the Dem party strength reguardless of the national Republican lean of the state, I don't see this one switching.  Keep it at Dems.

Then, we have 23 D, 23 R, and 4 toss-ups.  I would give AZ Rep and TN Dem, maybe, but the others I'm not so sure.  I think it will in the end come down to the popular election vote.  An Obama victory by the popular vote would give these Democrats cover to vote with their party, but a McCain victory, not so much.