1984: George H.W. Bush (R) vs. Gary W. Hart (D)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

In December 1983, President Ronald Reagan declines to run for a second term as President of the United States due to health concerns. With Reagan declining a second term, Vice President Bush immediately announces he'll run for the Presidency of the United States. How would the 1984 Presidential Election turn out if these were the tickets?

Republican

Vice President George H.W. Bush of Texas
Congressman Jack F. Kemp of New York

Democratic

Senator Gary Hart of Colorado
Senator Jim Sasser of Tennessee

Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bush/Kemp: 52% PV, 336 EV
Hart/Sasser: 47% PV, 202 EV

[Kevin]

Bush/Kemp: 52% PV, 336 EV
Hart/Sasser: 47% PV, 202 EV

I think Hart would have won California and New Mexico, Possibly Nevada also and perhaps even Missouri?     

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Bush/Kemp: 52% PV, 336 EV
Hart/Sasser: 47% PV, 202 EV

I think Hart would have won California and New Mexico, Possibly Nevada also and perhaps even Missouri?    

Maybe not that good in 1984. I think Senator Hart would have done better than Fritz Mondale in 1984 but it wouldn't be enough for a victory. Maybe something along these lines:

George H.W. Bush/Jack F. Kemp (R): 312 EV, 50% of the PV
Gary W. Hart/Jim Sasser (D): 226 EV, 49% of the PV