The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument

[classical liberal]

Folks,

NC is not trending towards the Democrats so much as the Democrats are trending towards NC (at least on a local level).  The same is true of VA, KS, and MT (among others), for that matter.  Virtually all of the move towards the Democrats has come through a softening of the Party's ideological dogma to allow for the expansion of the Democratic tent to cover the trade protectionists, who left the party over the pro-trade policies of the New Democrats, and the Christian Humanists, who were mostly evicted from the Democratic tent in the 1968 realignment by the pro-choice plank.

[Alcon]

Folks,

NC is not trending towards the Democrats so much as the Democrats are trending towards NC (at least on a local level).  The same is true of VA, KS, and MT (among others), for that matter.  Virtually all of the move towards the Democrats has come through a softening of the Party's ideological dogma to allow for the expansion of the Democratic tent to cover the trade protectionists, who left the party over the pro-trade policies of the New Democrats, and the Christian Humanists, who were mostly evicted from the Democratic tent in the 1968 realignment by the pro-choice plank.

There are less nuanced regional factors involved here, but this is the more interesting explanation, and a valid point that needs to be shouted from the mountaintops.

[Smash255]

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.

Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

Again, that's great, but baring a Dem landslide, NC will go to the GOP +8-10% or so. The Triangle isn't big enough to influence the race that much, and Charlotte and the Triad aroud 50/50 when you factor in Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenberg, and Davidson counties.

Guilford, Meclenberg and Wake will all go to Obama 56-44 this year. Them three counties make up 24% of the population of NC.

Well until we see it, you can make that assumption all day long. Wake County went 51-49% for Bush in 2004. It's going to swing that wildly? Guilford was a 50/50 split, and Mec was 52-48. It's possible it goes 56-44, but unlikely. You must be assuming Obama wins in a landslide. In a 50/50 race, they don't go Democrat that dramatically. I could be wrong, but I still don't see NC being the New York of the south as you call it.

All three swung pretty wildly from 00-04 comapred to the national average

Wake GOP 7.61%-  Dem .34%  (move 7.33% Dem)
Guilford GOP 2.68%- Dem 3.38% (move 6.06% Dem)
Mecklenburg GOP 2.72%- Dem 6.09% (move 8.81% Dem)

[JSojourner]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

I have several North Carolina friends and customers.  Some Democrat, most Republican.  All the Democrats say they are certain the state will go Democratic in November.  The Republicans are split.

But you know what that is?  Anecdotal crapola and speculation.

North Carolina is securely Republican territory.  Not likely R.  Certain R.

Now, if there were a McCain meltdown or a major disaster in Iraq or with the economy, then I could see NC being among the R states to flip.  But all things being equal, even with Mike Easley as Obama's running mate, NC is absolutely safe for the GOP.  I wish I were wrong about that.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

I have several North Carolina friends and customers.  Some Democrat, most Republican.  All the Democrats say they are certain the state will go Democratic in November.  The Republicans are split.

But you know what that is?  Anecdotal crapola and speculation.

North Carolina is securely Republican territory.  Not likely R.  Certain R.

Now, if there were a McCain meltdown or a major disaster in Iraq or with the economy, then I could see NC being among the R states to flip.  But all things being equal, even with Mike Easley as Obama's running mate, NC is absolutely safe for the GOP.  I wish I were wrong about that.

I'm sorry I have to disagree, NC will be a whole lot closer then people think.

[jesmo]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

I have several North Carolina friends and customers.  Some Democrat, most Republican.  All the Democrats say they are certain the state will go Democratic in November.  The Republicans are split.

But you know what that is?  Anecdotal crapola and speculation.

North Carolina is securely Republican territory.  Not likely R.  Certain R.

Now, if there were a McCain meltdown or a major disaster in Iraq or with the economy, then I could see NC being among the R states to flip.  But all things being equal, even with Mike Easley as Obama's running mate, NC is absolutely safe for the GOP.  I wish I were wrong about that.

I'm sorry I have to disagree, NC will be a whole lot closer then people think.

Josh, dude, please don't pull a BushOklahoma...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm guessing North Carolina will have margins similar to VA in 2004, unless something changes.  Obama will probably lose, but it is not out of reach for the Democrats.