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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  virginia. (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: virginia.  (Read 18655 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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Posts: 40,790
Dominica


« on: March 25, 2008, 11:28:11 pm »

Trending-Democratic rapidly, big primary win, he does well in polls there, he appeals well to the rapidly growing NoVA voters, and there's a considerable black population in the state.

It's definitely one of the states that he'll have a good shot at taking.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,790
Dominica


« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2008, 12:01:25 am »

Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,790
Dominica


« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2008, 04:43:36 pm »

I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.

Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
McCain has no more support among veterans than any other Republican.
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