virginia.

[Torie]

Ironically, the problem Obama will have in VA is the same area of the state that torpedoed Allen in 2006.  Life is kind of odd.

Anyway, I would predict that VA will probably be somewhere in-between +3-+5 of the national margin in 2008, depending on the candidate.  So yes, a VP from here could swing the state, maybe.

With McCain running, Virginia will be a least a bit more GOP than the nation, against either Dem. Thus I don't consider it a critical swing state.

[Torie]

Leif, Bush won Virginia by 8% in 2004.

[Torie]

There is a growing distaste for good old boys in Virginia, who appeal to the hinterlands, without many voters.  If a pubbie seems to be retro in that way, it's curtains. Ya, they can do great in some of those counties out there around Roanoke and so on, in the "Fighting Ninth," but overall it doesn't pencil. Virginia is more and more coming to look like Florida.

[Torie]

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

I'm scratching my head at that too. Anybody care to explain?

Dubya ran about 5% better than the nation in Virginia in 2004, and McCain will match it. Heck if Bush ran again, he might run 5% better in Virginia than the nation, getting 45% there, while 40% in the nation.

[Torie]

Regardless of who's running, does anyone want to discuss VA itself...like i discussed in my previous post?

Ya, I noticed that there was almost no agriculture in my view when I drove from DC to Williamsburg, and the landscape seemed very monochromatic, with the same lot of about three species of trees, all about 25 feet in height.