virginia.

[bullmoose88]

The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.

My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.

It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.

[bullmoose88]

yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.

but keep in mind who is the republican nominee.  not george w.bush.  john mccain.  it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.

he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.

True, and can Obama stop the bleeding in ever Republican growing Southside?

[bullmoose88]

Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average

Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

It may not so much be huge appeal rather than that mccain won't face the same sort of animosity Bush faced in nova04

[bullmoose88]

Regardless of who's running, does anyone want to discuss VA itself...like i discussed in my previous post?

Its for lovers.

[bullmoose88]

va is the state of my birth.  great state.  it is certainly worthy of discussion.

commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.

[bullmoose88]

va is the state of my birth.  great state.  it is certainly worthy of discussion.

commonwealth damnit...commonwealth.

My second favorite commonwealth. 

homer

[bullmoose88]

Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI

ROTFLMAO!

Uh.... no. 

You fail.

For starters I thinK Obama is going to win nationally by 2-3%, but if you look at a  50/50 type of election

VA is 1-2% more GOP than nationally
PA & Wi are about 3-4% more Dem than nationally
MI & NH are at least 5% more Dem than nationally

But Obama isn't white, and you forget that PA is Philly plus Alabama and Pittsburgh...I dont know if Obama can hold the same coalition as say Hillary/Kerry/Gore/Willy

[bullmoose88]

The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.

My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.

It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.

 In 96 it was 10.46% more GOP than nationally, 8.54% in 2000 & 5.74% in 04.  So the trend of 2-3 points nationally has been going on since 96.  Just looking at what is going on in Virginia, and Northern VA in particular it looks like the Dem trend has even gained more steam.  A trend doen't mean the trend will continue, but their is no evidence that the trend in VA is reversing itself, slowing down, and if anything it seems like the trend is picking up steam.

Second, I don't know if I totally buy into the idea of using how much more an area was (or less) than the national (or state) average.

Say for instance Candidate X in 1988 in State Y had 55% of the vote when he had 52% nationally, but 4 years later had 55% in state Y but 57% nationally...is the state any more or less favorable to his party than it was 4 years before?

What your doing does have some use and is telling, but like every other statistic, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.