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  Talk Elections
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  2008 Elections
  virginia. (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: virginia.  (Read 18653 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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Posts: 21,744


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

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« on: March 26, 2008, 12:03:30 am »

Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

He's more moderate than Obama, that's for sure. He also would've been slaughtered in the senate race if it weren't for Allen's big mouth.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,744


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

P

« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2008, 10:21:54 am »

I havnt been here long, but I can tell the enthusiasm here for Obama is huge. That doesnt mean that hes going to win though, I just have a good feeling about my state in the fall.

The entusiasm for Obama when he visted Charleston was huge when Kerry endorsed him. The enthusiasm here at UNC-Chapel Hill is huge for him. That doesn't mean he'll win the Carolinas now, does it?


I think VA is a stage that is distracting the Dems so much that McCain will be able to pick off Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and maybe Wisconsin without the Dems noticing.

Go ahead and dump tons of money there. There are too many veterans there to lose the state for McCain.
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