what states can obama win in the general that clinton cant?

[WalterMitty]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

[Meeker]

I question her ability to win Colorado.

[WalterMitty]

I question her ability to win Colorado.

eh.  obama might have a slightly better chance of winning co than clinton.  but only slightly.

i always thought the democrat would win co in 08.  im not so sure now.  it is probably lean mccain at this point.

[ottermax]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

New Hampshire, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. States she will have to fight for, but Obama will easily win.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

[TomC]

euphoria

[Keystone Phil]

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

Wow.

[elcorazon]

wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, michigan, oregon, washington, new mexico, colorado, nevada, missouri, iowa, new hampshire, virginia...

if clinton is nominated, get ready for president mccain.

[WalterMitty]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

New Hampshire, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. States she will have to fight for, but Obama will easily win.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

dear lord in heaven, help this fellow out.

it appears he has had way too m uch kool aid.

[WalterMitty]

wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, michigan, oregon, washington, new mexico, colorado, nevada, missouri, iowa, new hampshire, virginia...

if clinton is nominated, get ready for president mccain.

yeah i marked new hampshire and new mexico off the can-win list for clinton after they held their primaries.

and nevada.  whoah.  clinton certainly cant compete there like obama can.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obama can win and Hillary can't:

Colorado
Nevada
(13 EVs)

Obama will win easily but Hillary will have to fight:

Nevada
Iowa
Virginia
New Hampshire
(29 EVs)

Obama can't win but he can force McCain to spend money there and Hillary couldn't:

Montana
North Carolina
(18 Evs)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hillary can win and Obama can't:
Arkansas
West Virginia
(10 EVs)

Hillary will win easily but Obama will have to fight
Ohio
(20 EVs)

Hillary can't win but would force McCain to spend money there:
Kentucky
Tennessee
(19 EVs)

[ottermax]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

New Hampshire, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. States she will have to fight for, but Obama will easily win.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

dear lord in heaven, help this fellow out.

it appears he has had way too m uch kool aid.

Hey, in the same good scenario, I would give Clinton Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, and Louisiana

[Sam Spade]

This question makes no sense.  Certain states will likely fall on or off the table depending on how big the national margin gets.  So we really don't know anything at this time.

I will posit a broad observation.  Clinton isn't winning Colorado barring a +10 point national victory.  Same thing goes with Obama in Arkansas and West Virginia, and he'd probably need more than +10.

[WalterMitty]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

New Hampshire, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. States she will have to fight for, but Obama will easily win.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

dear lord in heaven, help this fellow out.

it appears he has had way too m uch kool aid.

Hey, in the same good scenario, I would give Clinton Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, and Louisiana

i dont see any scenario where clinton could win those states.

[Torie]

Clinton seems in trouble in Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Minnesota, against McCain. Obama seems in trouble in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey and Florida against McCain.

This snapshot probably won't hold seamlessly, but it is all interesting.

I should add, that the electoral college only matters much if the two candidates are within 4% of each other, and then it is remote. 2% and the odds get higher that the electoral college will vary from the national vote. So all of this electoral college chat posits a close election. In that regard, I think it is more useful the plus or minus of a state versus the national vote, if one is going to ponder the electoral college.

[WalterMitty]

This question makes no sense.  Certain states will likely fall on or off the table depending on how big the national margin gets.  So we really don't know anything at this time.

I will posit a broad observation.  Clinton isn't winning Colorado barring a +10 point national victory.  Same thing goes with Obama in Arkansas and West Virginia, and he'd probably need more than +10.

sam spade this question makes a lot of sense.

you know that a presidential race is nothing more than 51 state races.  the national aspect is overrated.

go to 1980 and to bigger extent 1976.  look at the national numbers.  if obama or hillary get the same percentage of the national vote as carter did in 76 and 80...you think they will do as well in the south?

i had to dig back in my memory bank for that little example!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Virginia and Colorado are two states that come to mind. Iowa may be another.

[elcorazon]

wisconsin, minnesota, iowa, michigan, oregon, washington, new mexico, colorado, nevada, missouri, iowa, new hampshire, virginia...

if clinton is nominated, get ready for president mccain.

yeah i marked new hampshire and new mexico off the can-win list for clinton after they held their primaries.

and nevada.  whoah.  clinton certainly cant compete there like obama can.

clinton is not well liked.  even among dems.  she will struggle to gain the support of DEMOCRATS that failed to vote for her in the primary.  sure, she'll get a lot of them, but in the close states, particularly, and with younger voters, and possibly black voters, turnout will suffer and in some cases, the voters will stray to mccain.

Obama will not get all of hillary's support, but I suspect he will get quite a bit more than hillary will get of his... partly due to the nature of this campaign...and yes, NH and NM are states that I expect Hillary to lose in November, although I expect Obama to win them.

I did not take literally the word "cant" in the thread title as both CAN win most of the states, including ohio, pa, etc.

[Michael Z]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

New Hampshire, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. States she will have to fight for, but Obama will easily win.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Carolina. States that Clinton will never have a chance in, but in a good scenario Obama will win.

dear lord in heaven, help this fellow out.

it appears he has had way too m uch kool aid.

Hey, in the same good scenario, I would give Clinton Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, and Louisiana

i dont see any scenario where clinton could win those states.

What about a scenario where McCain throttles a puppy and then wipes his arse with the American flag on live television just before election day?

[Brittain33]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

Given that neither McCain nor Clinton can win Iowa, who will this state go for?

[Јas]

Iowa, Colorado, Virginia. Those are states she can't win.

Given that neither McCain nor Clinton can win Iowa, who will this state go for?

Write-in: Obama, obviously.

[JSojourner]

Neither of them can win any states but Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Illinois, California and the District of Columbia.

Haven't you been listening to the Republicans? 

America will rise up with one voice and reject Obama because he is a racist, an anti-Semite and he hates America.  He may have a secret plan to destroy the country and hand it over to the UN.

And if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, the tens of millions of freedom-loving conservatives who voteds for her in the primaries will switch back in the general. 

Sorry.  I was being a smartass but I just got off the phone with a friend who predicts a McCain win in 47 states...including a 67% win in his home state of Ohio.

[Joe Republic]

Sorry.  I was being a smartass but I just got off the phone with a friend who predicts a McCain win in 47 states...including a 67% win in his home state of Ohio.

The moral of the story:  Don't call Mike Naso again.

[bgwah]

Red=Clinton
Green=Obama

Light color = I doubt either would win these states, but shows which one would do better
Medium color = Relatively good chance of one being able to win and the other not being able to (take PA+VA with a grain of salt)
Dark color = I doubt either would lose these states, but shows which would do better.

[Mr.Phips]

Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa are three that immediately come to mind. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hillary helps in the Upper South, Obama helps in the West. 

That sums it up.