OH/MO/KY-SurveyUSA: Clinton better positioned than Obama to beat McCain

[Tender Branson]

Ohio:

Clinton - 50%
McCain - 44%

McCain - 50%
Obama - 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=32265e32-9fce-4c9e-83e1-509847379601

Missouri:

McCain - 48%
Clinton - 46%

McCain - 53%
Obama - 39%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8d367ce2-f928-4f60-b2a1-ce2b97ad6144

Kentucky:

McCain - 53%
Clinton - 43%

McCain - 64%
Obama - 28%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46

Data Collected: 03/14/2008 - 03/16/2008

[Tender Branson]

OH - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

Clinton: 49%
McCain: 42%

Obama: 47%
McCain: 42%

OH - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 48%
Clinton: 48%

McCain: 56%
Obama: 37%

...

MO - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

McCain: 50%
Clinton: 43%

McCain: 52%
Obama: 38%

MO - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 52%
Clinton: 42%

McCain: 57%
Obama: 34%

...

KY - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

McCain: 53%
Clinton: 39%

McCain: 57%
Obama: 30%

KY - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 54%
Clinton: 42%

McCain: 67%
Obama: 24%

[Tender Branson]

Looking @ how the KY numbers changed, I think in LA, AL and MS, Obama would get just 10% of Whites right now and McCain 80% if SurveyUSA would poll all 50 states again ...

[Tender Branson]

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.

I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they won´t vote for McCain anyway). I also assume he´s still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".

[Tender Branson]

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.

I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they won´t vote for McCain anyway). I also assume he´s still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".

Well, whatever state is still at least tied in today he will probably win in the election.

No, not if the Republican smear machine runs a few of these spots (incl. possible new material ?) in the Oct. 27 week ...

[Tender Branson]

That's some blog, Bandit.  Wow, it says you saw a survey taken last week showing Obama beating McCain in Kentucky?

This wasn't last week. This was a few weeks ago.

According to what I know (and I know lots of recent polls) there has been no poll from a respected pollster that showed Obama ahead of McCain in ANY of the southern states, let alone Kentucky.