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  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  OH/MO/KY-SurveyUSA: Clinton better positioned than Obama to beat McCain
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Author Topic: OH/MO/KY-SurveyUSA: Clinton better positioned than Obama to beat McCain  (Read 3274 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 19, 2008, 01:17:31 pm »

Ohio:

Clinton - 50%
McCain - 44%

McCain - 50%
Obama - 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=32265e32-9fce-4c9e-83e1-509847379601

Missouri:

McCain - 48%
Clinton - 46%

McCain - 53%
Obama - 39%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8d367ce2-f928-4f60-b2a1-ce2b97ad6144

Kentucky:

McCain - 53%
Clinton - 43%

McCain - 64%
Obama - 28%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46

Data Collected: 03/14/2008 - 03/16/2008
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2008, 01:25:08 pm »

Kentucky:

McCain - 53%
Clinton - 43%

McCain - 64%
Obama - 28%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45313abe-4220-409a-bc6c-5159d0751f46

Data Collected: 03/14/2008 - 03/16/2008

Owwch.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2008, 01:27:37 pm »

The Missouri numbers don't seem at all logical to me.

As for KY, well what did you expect?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2008, 01:31:45 pm »

OH - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

Clinton: 49%
McCain: 42%

Obama: 47%
McCain: 42%

OH - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 48%
Clinton: 48%

McCain: 56%
Obama: 37%

...

MO - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

McCain: 50%
Clinton: 43%

McCain: 52%
Obama: 38%

MO - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 52%
Clinton: 42%

McCain: 57%
Obama: 34%

...

KY - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 26-28 Feb.):

McCain: 53%
Clinton: 39%

McCain: 57%
Obama: 30%

KY - Among White Voters (Poll conducted 14-16 March):

McCain: 54%
Clinton: 42%

McCain: 67%
Obama: 24%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2008, 01:36:49 pm »

Looking @ how the KY numbers changed, I think in LA, AL and MS, Obama would get just 10% of Whites right now and McCain 80% if SurveyUSA would poll all 50 states again ... Tongue
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2008, 01:43:32 pm »

So the question becomes whether it is temporary or if this is the dean yell.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2008, 02:06:24 pm »

Either SurveyUSA made a misprint, or they're smoking some real powerful stuff over there.

Everyone knows Obama would do better than Clinton, so this is simply laughable.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2008, 02:09:30 pm »

Either SurveyUSA made a misprint, or they're smoking some real powerful stuff over there.

Everyone knows Obama would do better than Clinton, so this is simply laughable.

It's common knowledge that you've been living in a bubble for several years, but now it seems that the bubble has changed from transparent to opaque over the last few weeks.
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agcatter
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2008, 02:10:13 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2008, 02:14:11 pm by agcatter »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.

BTW, Bandit claims to be from Kentucky but doesn't seem to know that EVERY poll taken has shown Clinton running much better in Kentucky than Obama.  Planet Bandit.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2008, 02:14:36 pm »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.



I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2008, 02:16:29 pm »

I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Maybe it's time to resume Reconstruction then.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2008, 02:17:59 pm »

BTW, Bandit claims to be from Kentucky but doesn't seem to know that EVERY poll taken has shown Clinton running much better in Kentucky than Obama.  Planet Bandit.

The guy believes that the Democrats consistently win elections in Kentucky, but the Republicans steal victory from them each and every time.
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2008, 02:18:36 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2008, 02:20:17 pm by agcatter »

Moderate, I mostly agree with your post although I don't think he will bounce all the way back to where he was with northern whites.  However, you are correct with your general assessment.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2008, 02:19:33 pm »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.



I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they wont vote for McCain anyway). I also assume hes still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2008, 02:20:14 pm »

The guy believes that the Democrats consistently win elections in Kentucky, but the Republicans steal victory from them each and every time.

How do you explain the "vote hauling" double standard then?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2008, 02:27:57 pm »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.



I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they wont vote for McCain anyway). I also assume hes still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".

After this scandal, I'm not sure you can assume he's ahead in NV, CO, and WI, and Obama was in trouble in Pennsylvania before the scandal broke.

Right now, the simple electoral math isn't looking terrific for Obama.  He might pick up some states like Colorado, Iowa, and maybe Nevada, but as things stand now, he'll lose Florida and Ohio to McCain, might lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire to boot.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2008, 02:28:57 pm »

Moderate, I mostly agree with your post although I don't think he will bounce all the way back to where he was with northern whites.  However, you are correct with your general assessment.

Well, I don't think he'll get all the way back either, but the effect will be largely muted in comparison with the effect of the Wright affair in those initially-friendly southern states.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2008, 02:28:57 pm »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.



I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they wont vote for McCain anyway). I also assume hes still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".

Well, whatever state is still at least tied in today he will probably win in the election.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2008, 02:29:43 pm »

The guy believes that the Democrats consistently win elections in Kentucky, but the Republicans steal victory from them each and every time.

How do you explain the "vote hauling" double standard then?

The best explanation I can provide is that, generally, you make things up.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2008, 02:31:24 pm »

What's the effect of the Hagee scandal on McCain?

You know, the scandal the racist media won't cover.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2008, 02:31:54 pm »

This may surprise some of you coming from me, but these are just three polls in time and what a time it was.  I mean, these polls were ALL THREE done right smack dab in the middle of the Wright affair and it is obviously reflecting Obama's absolute bottom in the middle of an extreme negative news cycle.

Therefore, I don't attach much if any importance to any of these.

However, watch the Hillary people jump on these and try to use them to try and convince everyone that Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I think the super delegates are too smart for that in that they know that a couple of polls don't mean much now.  Obama will do better when this thing passes.  I think it will hurt him some in the long run but no where near what is reflected in these polls.



I will admit to not being an expert on the south, but it is my personal feeling that while Obama will likely rebound from the Wright scandal in the northern states among white voters, his reputation among southern white voters is tarnished enough to permanently count him out in those longshot southern states it was once thought he'd have a shot at winning.

He'll never rebound from this 100% in the south.

Currently Obama has only to rebound in Michigan and Pennsylvania to win the Presidency (maybe in NJ and NH as well, but I think they wont vote for McCain anyway). I also assume hes still ahead or tied in NV, CO, WI. All other states seem to be safe Obama, even during this current "crisis".

Well, whatever state is still at least tied in today he will probably win in the election.

No, not if the Republican smear machine runs a few of these spots (incl. possible new material ?) in the Oct. 27 week ...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2008, 02:34:20 pm »

My take on these phony polls:

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com/2008/03/everybodys-gone-surveysurveyusa.html
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agcatter
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2008, 02:43:28 pm »

That's some blog, Bandit.  Wow, it says you saw a survey taken last week showing Obama beating McCain in Kentucky?

Where was it taken?  Central Louiville?  How about a link please.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2008, 02:46:22 pm »

That's some blog, Bandit.  Wow, it says you saw a survey taken last week showing Obama beating McCain in Kentucky?

This wasn't last week. This was a few weeks ago.
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Alcon
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2008, 02:47:45 pm »

What's the effect of the Hagee scandal on McCain?

You know, the scandal the racist media won't cover.

You've answered your own question.


Let's count the errors:

1. There are plenty of other polls that show Obama doing worse than Clinton against McCain in other states, although this region is especially bad for him.  And, no, relative to Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas, Ohio isn't "special" at all - it's fitting quite in to its typical pattern.

2. Obama has never led McCain in poll of Kentucky.  The last SUSA poll to show a Dem up against McCain was last November.  Clinton led Giuliani by 4, and McCain by 1.  Giuliani led Obama by 14 and McCain slaughtered him by 22.

3. None of this matters, since you've decided that any result differing from your analysis is an indicator of voter fraud.  You are the best political analyst in history.  You know how the votes were actually cast, and what the voters actually replied to the polls with.  You should re-write the Bible.
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