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  Talk Elections
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  2008 Elections
  Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19691 times)
Ben.
Ben
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« on: March 19, 2008, 08:58:35 am »

Wright hurt him badly among blue collar Democrats and independents and, as I said, bad news for him in the general - in particular, the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

I still fail to see the evidence for this... Obama been knocked badly the past couple of weeks, but its hardly terminal.

If he still wins the nomination he'll have his shot with blue collar Dems, folks on this forum overestimate this events impact... it's biggest problem for Obama is that its dragged on for so long. 
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Ben.
Ben
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*****
Posts: 4,241


« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2008, 05:10:25 pm »



Lots of the remaining ones WANT to remain neutral for fairly obvious reasons. If forced to choose most would probably just go how their state voted or follow Nancy Pelosi and vote for whoever has the most pledged delegates, which is going to be Obama (Sorry J. J., you aren't a superdelegate so your opinion here doesn't mean sh!t.) And that's not even counting the 70+ add-ons who are actually somewhat elected and Obama holds the edge in.

The following primaries after Pennsylvania are pretty split too. Hillary has Indiana, those hick states and Puerto Rico, Obama has North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Montana.

I don't think he has North Carolina. And in delegate terms South Dakota and Montana are neglible. So I expect to CLinton to get a net gain out of those. Your other response doesn't really seem to answer my post to a great extent so I don't really have much to say to it. If Obama holds up, then yes, he'll likely get all those super delegates. But it's not a done deal yet.

Dont think Clinton has Indiana locked up either to be honest... Clinton is favoured in a big way in KY and WV, Obama must be considered to have the advantage in SD, MT and OR (though MT is going to be closer than many of the plains states - and OR will be a scrap, then again so was WA)... but Indiana and North Carolina are not bankers for either campaign IMO.
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