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  Talk Elections
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  Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers  (Read 19650 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« on: March 19, 2008, 03:09:20 pm »

McCain has gained on Obama in the polls this month, but he's done the same on Clinton and by the same amount.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2008, 07:02:36 pm »

At present, I just don't see anything in the polling to justify the superdelegates coalescing around Hillary.  Yes, McCain has been gaining on Obama over the past few weeks, but he's also been gaining on Hillary by the same amount or maybe even a little more.

The superdelegates, if they are deciding between the two on purely pragmatic grounds, are not going to decide who to go for because of who will win in a Clinton v. Obama race, but because of who has the better chance to beat McCain, and everything I've seen in the polling indicates that is still Obama for now.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2008, 01:27:02 pm »

The PA numbers show the "long ride down" continues with Clinton doubling her lead to 51% to 35%.  This could result in a 65% majority for Clinton if the trend continues. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080320/pl_politico/9135;_ylt=Aksl.ClNM4z6GqY5CKABdtRh24cA

I repeat, why will the superdelegates care about this?  They ought to be wondering about which of Obama and Clinton will do best against McCain, and there the trend has been that McCain has been gaining on both of them, and possibly gaining more on Clinton than on Obama (tho that subtrend is within the MoE).
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2008, 09:01:08 pm »

If Obama is doing so well in MI, why isn't he supportive of a revote?  This revote is fresh with  both candidates on the ballot.  Or are you just being a hack?

The plans that were put forth were not 100% fresh.  Independents who voted in the GOP Primary would not have been allowed in the Democratic revote.  Had the Democratic vote in January mattered, some of those independents would have chosen to vote in the Democratic Primary instead.  Given the edge Obama has had over Hillary with independents, the net result is to skew the Michigan result towards Hillary.

On the other hand, if one were to allow all voters to participate in the revote, it would also skew things badly.

Any Michigan revote is not going to give a result the same as what would have been had there been a normal primary election.
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