Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers

[motomonkey]

Look at Reuter's latest poll numbers showing Clinton pulling even with Obama nationally. http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1824791220080319?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10112


And more, http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/10525

One week ago:  Obama 50% - Clinton 44%  (Gallup)
Today:  Obama 45% - Clinton 47%

And Rev. Wright is viewed as racially devisive and hurting the Obama Campaign http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/people2/just_8_have_favorable_opinion_of_pastor_jeremiah_wright


Obama's numbers will continue to erode.  Clinton will chase and catch him like a hunter chasing a fatally wounded deer. 

Obama is running on a platform of "Change."  How are we supposed to believe he can "change" America and the way Washington works when he can't even change the mind of his pastor and friend of 20 years? 

[motomonkey]

Obama has the delegate lead but cannot get to 2,025 needed in the remaining primaries.  If Clinton wins the remaining contests 60/40, the super delegates will enough evidence to justify going with Clinton. 

[motomonkey]

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election.  His followers failed to understand how a single unguarded moment could undo all the good things that led to his leadership position. 

[motomonkey]

This isn't terminal. Incidents in March don't matter in the GE.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Tell that to Howard Dean.  Here is a link to a CBS News report dated Jan 23, 2004 where Dick Meyer reports that the scream "is no big deal" and doesn't understand why the media is latching on to the story.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/opinion/meyer/main595508.shtml

Or what about Ed Muskies, March 4, 1972 "tears?" 

It isn't fair, but when the media and the public get connected on one of these things it doesn't go away.  My opinion is we are on the front-end not the back-end of the Wright - Obama story.

Lot's of front runners fail in the spring of election year. 

[motomonkey]

My position is that this will cost Obama the Democratic nomination.  Neither Clinton nor Obama will have 2025 delegates.  The super delegates will decide and go with Clinton  to win the general election after she wins decisively in the majority of the remaining 10 primaries.

Obama does not yet have the nomination.

[motomonkey]

Britain 33:  I agree with you that Muskie and Dean were earlier in the cycle and you make good points.  This would by comparison be a bigger fall happening later in the cycle.

Michael Z:  I have not been against Obama.  I began the season as a Gore supporter and actually voted for Obama in the Texas primary.  The Rev. Wright association and Obama's response has caused me to withdraw my support. 

[motomonkey]

Obama's long ride down continues.  The numbers today show

 March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton, a New York senator, a 49 percent to 42 percent edge over Obama, an Illinois senator. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points.

Drip, drip, drip down he goes.  He was winning two weeks ago.
He was even last week
He is losing now. 
He will be losing by more next week. 
There is no stopping the drop and the slow, painful, loss of support.  The only hope is to get a repent Rev. Wright in front of cameras saying he is guilty of spreading anti-American hate, anti-semetic and anti-white hate speech and he has repented and joing Obama in his mission to unify. 

This is not likely to happen leaving Obama still a friend and member of his church.  It is like a Catholic continuing to worship and be friends at a church where the priest has been exposed as a child molestor.  No matter how much good the priest may have done in the community it is unacceptable to continue.

[motomonkey]

The PA numbers show the "long ride down" continues with Clinton doubling her lead to 51% to 35%.  This could result in a 65% majority for Clinton if the trend continues. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080320/pl_politico/9135;_ylt=Aksl.ClNM4z6GqY5CKABdtRh24cA

[motomonkey]

I authored "the long ride down" and am surprised to see Obama's numbers rise in the past week.  Certainly Clinton's "sniper fire" story helped but Obama gets some real credit for weathering what I still suspect is a tough sled ahead.

I live in Dallas and the Rev. Wright has been scheduled and cancelled three times. 

To be critical of my self, I read a WSJ article, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120657171729866843.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

that described me more accurately than I appreciated.  It said,

"As reassuring as the poll is for Sen. Obama, Mr. Hart and Mr. McInturff agreed that it did indicate that a substantial number of voters question whether the first-term senator would be a safe choice, or whether more needs to be known about him. Mr. McInturff said some voters are wondering, "Do we know enough about this guy?"

"While the senator's support among Democrats is little changed, he did slip among conservatives and Republican voters, groups that had shown some attraction to Sen. Obama's message of changing partisan politics in Washington."

I guess I am part of this "slipping" group.  I truly hope the contest can be elevated beyond poalarizing race debate.   

J.J.  I appreciate your post, and if Obama can continue to break to the strong side, I will own up to my error....But not yet.

[motomonkey]

The long ride down continues. 

[motomonkey]

In the heart of Pennsylvania.  Obama is no longer able to carry white, middle class and white blue collar voters.  He won 90%+ of the black vote in Philly but lost big in the demographics he was winning before Rev. Jerimiah. 

He has three big problems:

1.  Guilt by association (Wright, Ayers, etc.)
2.  Tactics are politics of old making his message of hope and change sound hollow
3. Race.  The contest is becoming increasingly racially polarized. 

While the math for the nomination is still clearly in favor of Obama, the candidate has been damaged  and I suspect these wounds will prevent him from becoming President in 2008.

[motomonkey]

Wisconsin vs. Pennsylvania. 

In WI, Obama won the white vote:
Wisconsin:
Whites earning less than $50,000 (Obama 51%-Clinton49%)
Among those who believed the economy is most important issue (Obama 57%-Clinton 43%)
Catholic Voters (Obama 49% - Clinton 51%)
Weekly Church Goers (Obama 53% - Clinton 47%)

Pennsylvania:
Whites earning less than $50,000 (Obama 45%-Clinton 55%)
Among those who believed the economy is most important issue (Obama 44%-Clinton 56%)
Catholic Voters (Obama 30% - Clinton 70%)
Weekly Church Goers (Obama 42% - Clinton 58%)

Look at the numbers!!!!! 

Sources:
http://visiblevote08.logoonline.com/2008/02/20/wisconsin-clinton-coalition-crumbles/
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/PA.html

[motomonkey]

Ohio vs. PA...the other numbers:

Ohio:
Whites earning less than $50,000 (Obama 46%-Clinton 53%)
Among those who believed the economy is most important issue (Obama 47%-Clinton 52%)
Catholic Voters (Obama 40% - Clinton 59%)
Weekly Church Goers (Obama 51% - Clinton 48%)

Pennsylvania:
Whites earning less than $50,000 (Obama 45%-Clinton 55%)
Among those who believed the economy is most important issue (Obama 44%-Clinton 56%)
Catholic Voters (Obama 30% - Clinton 70%)
Weekly Church Goers (Obama 42% - Clinton 58%)

The point is that Obama has lost strength where he needs it most, white, church going, lower income, economy focused whites.

He never had the seniors, but kept this race from being racially polarized by having strength in these groups.

[motomonkey]

I agree that WI was among Obama's best showing in the working class white demographics.  My point is that something has changed in Obama's draw. It is probably most pronounced among the church going.  Because the Catholic vote is significant in WI and PA, it seems a fair slice to examine.

It does not seem intellectually honest to continue believing Obamaa is as strong of a candidate as he was 60 days ago.  His negative numbers are way up.  He is not as attractive to working class whites, and white males, and church attenders as before.