Obama's Long Ride Down - The Numbers

[Michael Z]

The Rev. Wright video is the "Howard Dean Scream of the 2008" election. 

Wishful thinking.

[Michael Z]

This isn't terminal. Incidents in March don't matter in the GE.

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Tell that to Howard Dean.  Here is a link to a CBS News report dated Jan 23, 2004 where Dick Meyer reports that the scream "is no big deal" and doesn't understand why the media is latching on to the story.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/23/opinion/meyer/main595508.shtml

Or what about Ed Muskies, March 4, 1972 "tears?" 

It isn't fair, but when the media and the public get connected on one of these things it doesn't go away.  My opinion is we are on the front-end not the back-end of the Wright - Obama story.

Lot's of front runners fail in the spring of election year. 

I was actually gonna address this point sooner, including the Muskie comparison, but felt it was unnecessary, but alas:

Firstly, unlike the Dean scream and Muskie's bawling, the Wright affair is guilt by association. Secondly, the way Obama has handled it has been marginally different from Dean and Muskie, and the speech has pulled large parts of the mainstream media back behind him. Thirdly, Dean and Muskie were never media darlings the way Obama is, and thus didn't get much of a free ride. Fourthly, it's very telling that the people here and elsewhere saying that Obama's "done" or "finished" are the exact same people who've laying into this guy from Day One (with the exception of someone like MODU, who's actually been very rational and objective throughout and doesn't get bogged down in emotions the way some people here do) - now they've found something they can finally latch on to, they're just jumping all over it like kids in a candystore - so I'm inclined to take their words with a pinch of salt. Fifth, Dean and Muskie were pretty s***y candidates compared to Obama, who has a mass following that some people have, admittedly not entirely without credibility, compared to a sort of cult. Dean did have a lot of appeal with the Democratic base, but nothing comparable to Obama's support.

While I won't try and indulge in the kind of smugness and self-satisfaction that some people here are guilty of, I will be confident enough to detract them and say that, yes, Obama will still win the nomination, he'll still become President, and the Wright issue will be remembered as something comparable to the Gennifer Flowers affair - a major issue that did set a campaign off kilter, but was eventually overcome through external factors and the candidate's overall popularity. But at the end of the day there's nothing you nor I can really say with confidence until the final numbers are in.

BTW, as far as GE polls are concerned, I'd take them with a pinch of salt, bearing in mind that a lot of polls predicted a convincing Dukakis victory this time in 88, for instance. Anything can happen between now and November.

[Michael Z]

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If Muskie was such a sh**tty candidate, why did Nixon go to such lengths to eliminate him?

I was using hyperbole to make a point. Plus I was talking in comparative terms.

[Michael Z]

Michael Z:  I have not been against Obama.  I began the season as a Gore supporter and actually voted for Obama in the Texas primary.  The Rev. Wright association and Obama's response has caused me to withdraw my support. 

I stand corrected, but rest assured that my comment wasn't directly aimed at you, but rather some regs here, most of who have blue avatars, and who may as well fill in a pre-prepared form before commenting on Obama...

[Michael Z]

I must admit, the polls aren't looking good for Obama. PPP puts Clinton at 56% and Obama at 30% in PA.

This could be a big problem if senior Democrats and superdelegates decide that Obama won't be able to attract the white vote sufficiently to beat McCain in November and so rally behind Clinton at the convention instead.

To quote the angry videogame nerd, What a s***load of f***!

On the plus side, Obama has $30m left to spare in campaign funds whereas Clinton has "only" $3m.

[Michael Z]

I must admit, the polls aren't looking good for Obama. PPP puts Clinton at 56% and Obama at 30% in PA.

This could be a big problem if senior Democrats and superdelegates decide that Obama won't be able to attract the white vote sufficiently to beat McCain in November and so rally behind Clinton at the convention instead.

To quote the angry videogame nerd, What a s***load of f***!

On the plus side, Obama has $30m left to spare in campaign funds whereas Clinton has "only" $3m.

Gallup has him rebounding by 5pts after a drop earlier putting Clinton ahead. Rasmussen still shows him ahead, even tho its by one point...then theres this:

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Well, that's slightly more reassuring, thanks.