obama's speech. will it help

[Ban my account ffs!]

I have to admit, this speech probably won't help him.  It's bloated and full of hot air.  He's trying to come off as being honest... perhaps because he wants to be honest..

But sometimes honesty requires a little bluntness to resonate with people.. not a 2 page ideological love fest.. I mean.. what's a Sundae with only the whipped cream and cherry on top?

I still support him, though.  Despite his pastor, I don't think it represents some sort of hidden agenda on Obama's part.  A lot of people are moved by the wrong people to do the right thing.  Obama will move forward binding the wound to stop the bleeding himself, if he has to.

[JohnCA246]

I love all this talk of the common people.  #1 most common people have already voted or wont vote for another two months.  #2 The general election is in November.  There will be plenty of news cycles with ups and downs between now and Nov.  McCain survived the intern scandal, and this will blow away after a few weeks.  This will certainly hurt, and will never go away completely. , but come on, how many times have we heard various candidates were over (generally months before voting takes place). 

The truth is most people aren't watching now.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Seriously, this the best GOP dirty trick that has ever been done. I wonder what they will do next and I wonder how much longer this will last.

Um... did the GOP create Trinity UCC just so that Obama would start attending there?  Is Jeremiah Wright really a GOP hack activist that we made up?

[Person Man]

Seriously, this the best GOP dirty trick that has ever been done. I wonder what they will do next and I wonder how much longer this will last.

Um... did the GOP create Trinity UCC just so that Obama would start attending there?  Is Jeremiah Wright really a GOP hack activist that we made up?

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

[Brittain33]

Realistically speaking, few people are going to watch the speech and the low-information voters must susceptible to being swayed on the Wright issue aren't going to watch it or read it all.

Obama's audience was the media. He needs them to change the story from rerunning footage of Wright every 20 minutes to talking about his response and how he's positioning himself. At heart, the media (Murdoch/Newsmax aside) do not want to kneecap Obama and want to give him a second chance as the likely nominee. This speech gives them some raw material they can use for the next stage.

No matter how damning Wright's speech may be--and I agree with many that it is a problem for Obama--it simply isn't going to be the only thing people are going to talk about until November, nor will it be talked about continuously. Simply by giving a speech, Obama has made an effort to change the subject to be about him and not about Wright. That's a positive. The details of the speech don't matter.

For whoever said he was targeting his own coalition in his speech, that was probably the right thing for him to do, because other than people being paid they're the only ones watching.

[elcorazon]

From Obama's speech:

“As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me … I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother,”

I missed that line.  Absolutely disgusting, especially in the way he described his grandmother and then refused to explain what good things she did for him, unlike the effusive positive remarks about Wright.

Glad I made the right choice on February 5.

huh?  why is that disgusting?  Wright's rhetoric is actually not anything to be disgusted by, and obama's not disowning the guy is totally reasonable.

Are you trying to be opebo?

no.

just read the speech.. BRILLIANT.  too bad it won't carry the day, but seriously, Obama's incredible.  That speech is so dead on it's amazing.  

sad we're stuck with 4 yrs of mccain.  god damn america indeed.

[bullmoose88]

I can understand what storebought and spade are saying, I guess my question is...what did you want Obama to say...or what should he have said?

[Beet]

Seriously, this the best GOP dirty trick that has ever been done. I wonder what they will do next and I wonder how much longer this will last.

Um... did the GOP create Trinity UCC just so that Obama would start attending there?  Is Jeremiah Wright really a GOP hack activist that we made up?

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

And Democrats are too dumb to do their own research? I'm astounded at how, if this has been public information all through 2007, it would come out at this moment.

For what it's worth, I didn't think it was a horrible speech. A part of the culture that he comes from is horrible and bigoted. No speech can change that. He rejected the views and emphasized the exact opposite sentiments, without glossing anything over. And he can't talk about race without presenting two different views of the picture. That's not "moral equivalence", that's just the fact. Actually he could have presented even more different perspectives, but the point was made.

[Brittain33]

I can understand what storebought and spade are saying, I guess my question is...what did you want Obama to say...or what should he have said?

I think a few people were fantasizing about a William-Shatner-on-SNL scenario...

[Storebought]

I can understand what storebought and spade are saying, I guess my question is...what did you want Obama to say...or what should he have said?

I expected Obama to use moral equivalence. I didn't expect him to defend Wright's politics to the extent that he did.

But this speech does neutralize anything that the Hillary camp had planned to say against him. More importantly, it satisfies his base -- Obama is "100% black" and no sellout, and he knows what buttons to push to regain the wavering support of wealthy white liberals.

I don't think his economic appeals to the down-home Hillary Clinton Democrat were all that effective, though -- these voters were all Reagan Democrats a generation ago, who Obama claimed voted Republican back then out of racial animus.

[Joe Republic]

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

You mean like when the story of George W. Bush's cocaine use and DUIs mysteriously hit the headlines just days before election day in 2000?

[agcatter]

Well, about what I expected.  He flowered things up like he always does.  Again, exactly as I expected.  Those that buy into the guy will think it's wonderful and those that don't buy into what the guy is selling will view it as BS.

The question is whether or not one speech is gonna override all the footage of Wright and all his venom.  It's all about one demographic - white working class Democrats.  Not just the primaries which I think are anticlimatic as the nomination is settled IMO.  The question is what those Reagan Democrats do during the general election in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.  Nothing else matters.  That's the ballgame.

[politicaltipster]

I'd give the speech a B+. It was delivered horribly (which is why it was leaked beforehand) and it lacked substance but Obama is a like a good hypnotist in that he can leverage his reputation and the force of suggestion so that people were already half convinced by him before they read the text. He also was clever to turn the debate from one over his patriotism to one about race. His targeted appeal to blue-collar Democrats at the end was also very smart.

However, he made two major mistakes:

1) The line about Geraldine Ferraro was cheap and lowered the tone.
2) The admission that he was in the church, after he said he wasn't, was a major admission (though technically Obama said he wasn't in the church when the specifc statement were made).

He'll come out of it with some serious damage but he'll still survive, although its about 50/50 between him and Clinton at the moment.

[agcatter]

By not distancing himself more he did leave himself open if more footage of Wright turs up which probably will happen.  But who knows.

[Smash255]

Well, about what I expected.  He flowered things up like he always does.  Again, exactly as I expected.  Those that buy into the guy will think it's wonderful and those that don't buy into what the guy is selling will view it as BS.

The question is whether or not one speech is gonna override all the footage of Wright and all his venom.  It's all about one demographic - white working class Democrats.  Not just the primaries which I think are anticlimatic as the nomination is settled IMO.  The question is what those Reagan Democrats do during the general election in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.  Nothing else matters.  That's the ballgame.

When it comes down to it I don't think it will be much of a deal.  Its going to be a story whose legs are going to die out and when it comes down to it, the working class voters in the areas you mentioned will be voting on if they want to continue or change Bush's economic policies.

[Aizen]

Not the kind of speech I was looking for. It wasn't a complete disaster though. We'll have to see if it will revese Obama's Hillary-esque approval rating which he has now (47-50)

[Brittain33]

By not distancing himself more he did leave himself open if more footage of Wright turs up which probably will happen.  But who knows.

If more footage of Wright turns up, it doesn't matter what he'll have said two or six or eight months earlier dissociating himself. It'll be on the news, that'll be it.

[Person Man]

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

You mean like when the story of George W. Bush's cocaine use and DUIs mysteriously hit the headlines just days before election day in 2000?

That was 8 years ago. Things change.

Not the kind of speech I was looking for. It wasn't a complete disaster though. We'll have to see if it will revese Obama's Hillary-esque approval rating which he has now (47-50)

Yeah. Right now, Hillary is the woman candidate and Barack is the black candidate. Let's see if he can get passed this.

[Silent Hunter]

When it comes down to it I don't think it will be much of a deal.  Its going to be a story whose legs are going to die out and when it comes down to it, the working class voters in the areas you mentioned will be voting on if they want to continue or change Bush's economic policies.

The economy isn't everything. Look at 2004. Or 1984. Or several other elections.

It's too early to tell, but this could be Obama's Fast Patrol Craft.

[ThePrezMex]

Obama's audience was the media. He needs them to change the story from rerunning footage of Wright every 20 minutes to talking about his response and how he's positioning himself. At heart, the media (Murdoch/Newsmax aside) do not want to kneecap Obama and want to give him a second chance as the likely nominee. This speech gives them some raw material they can use for the next stage.

For whoever said he was targeting his own coalition in his speech, that was probably the right thing for him to do, because other than people being paid they're the only ones watching.

I agree with this and with Sam's comments. CNN (except Wolf Blitzer) was going gaga with the speech. Not so much same reaction at Fox.

I personally believe that the speech leaves many questions unanswered and even raises some more. But he is trying to change the debate once again and say: if you keep questioning me, then you're trapped in the old politics of race and resentment.

This probably keeps him alive to win the Democratic nomination - it is hard for Hillary to criticize him. He might even still win in November, we don't know yet. What I'm pretty sure all the Wright episode has caused is the impossibility of him winning in a sort of landslide or mini landslide as he had hoped.

One of the strategies of his campaign, and I give him credit for, was trying to build a coalition that would allow him to win beyond the 51-49 elections we've seen in the recent past. Hillary, not because she wants to, but because of her numbers is more focused in winning that kind of campaign. So, what I anticipate for sure is that all this episode effectively kills obama's chance of winning beyond the 51-49 or 52-48 margin... if at all. He won't attract any Republicans now and with the speech he's trying to protect whatever independents and moderates margin he needs to win.

[Brittain33]

The economy isn't everything. Look at 2004. Or 1984. Or several other elections.

How do you cite 1984 as an example of the economy not being an important factor? Even if it wasn't "everything", the recovery absolutely helped Reagan say it was morning in America.

[Silent Hunter]

The economy isn't everything. Look at 2004. Or 1984. Or several other elections.

How do you cite 1984 as an example of the economy not being an important factor? Even if it wasn't "everything", the recovery absolutely helped Reagan say it was morning in America.

I said it wasn't everything. There were other issues too- defence for example.

[Person Man]

When it comes down to it I don't think it will be much of a deal.  Its going to be a story whose legs are going to die out and when it comes down to it, the working class voters in the areas you mentioned will be voting on if they want to continue or change Bush's economic policies.

The economy isn't everything. Look at 2004. Or 1984. Or several other elections.

It's too early to tell, but this could be Obama's

In 1984, the economy was getting better.
In 1988, the economy was doing great
In 1992, the economy was bad.
In 1996, the economy was doing better.
In 2000, the economy was slowing, but not as bad as today.
In 2004, the economy was kinda a mixed bag.

Though, this election could be the ultimate triumph of social conservatism in terms of America being presented with a path towards less racial and/or gender animus and rejecting it in favor of more of the same, despite more of the same being decidedly bad. Then again, this could be nothing...

[Joe Republic]

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

You mean like when the story of George W. Bush's cocaine use and DUIs mysteriously hit the headlines just days before election day in 2000?

That was 8 years ago. Things change.

No offense, but that was a pretty weak defense.  You'll need to try harder.

[Silent Hunter]

Ummm.... everybody could know about this all along, yet you waited until Obama was about to be nominated for president to make this a big deal. Like I said, this is your greatest scam yet.

You mean like when the story of George W. Bush's cocaine use and DUIs mysteriously hit the headlines just days before election day in 2000?

That was 8 years ago. Things change.

No offense, but that was a pretty weak defense.  You'll need to try harder.

That is a very weak defence. Now, since I can't read anyone's mind, let along that of a certain Al-Qaeda leader, I won't comment on that, but what about Rathergate in 2004?

Considering the mudslinging and inaccuracy on both sides, I'd say nothing's changed at all.