The one state won by Kerry in 2004 which worries me as to whether Obama can hold it is Pennsylvania, which for any Democratic presidential nominee is a pivotol state
There are two things that many should be VERY concerned about- McCain's appeal to latinos and to moderate/conservative democrats.
Obama has a Latino problem in the Democratic primaries, that much is obvious. Question is are they, generic, Democratic voters or, exclusively, Clinton voters? If they are the latter, he does have problems come the general; while McCain will not be the anathema to Latino voters that many other Republican presidential nominees would be
Indeed, Democratic primary voters are 'divided', demographically, between Obama [male, younger, African American, upscale/higher educated) and Clinton (female, older, Latino, downscale/lower educated) but not ideologically
But to what extent are Obama and Clinton voters 1) candidate exclusive or 2) Democratic candidate generic come November? That's the great 'unknown' - and yes, it is a matter of concern
As for moderate and conservative Democrats, I'm not so sure they find Obama that much of an anathema. From what I've seen of the exit polls, it's
not a case of Obama dominating the liberal Democratic primary vote with Clinton dominating among moderate and conservative primary voters
Dave
