November - McCain vs Obama (user search)
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  November - McCain vs Obama (search mode)
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Author Topic: November - McCain vs Obama  (Read 13425 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: March 09, 2008, 02:04:37 PM »

It will probably come down to Colorado or Nevada this year.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2008, 09:34:29 PM »

Remember. 1876, 1880, 1884, 1888 were all decided by 3 points and one state. Then again, this was all 120, 130 years ago. I mean, the all either came down to SC, IN or NY.  Since then, 1916 came down to 55 votes in  NH. In 1960, the election was decided by 100000 votes, but Kennedy was way ahead in EVs. 1976 was as close as 2004, but there wasn't decided by one state.

Since then, this series of elections have been the first time since 1888 where back-to-back elections were decided by one state.

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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2008, 10:42:17 PM »

Also, Obama can match McCain in terms of how many indies and moderate GOPPers he can take....Obama will probably do as well with some rural midwesterners and westerners as McCain does with hispanics. Look at this map, for example-



In rural SW Illy, Obama did quite well...

Kerry didn't-
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2008, 01:33:49 PM »

Yeah, but I am comparing SO Ill.'s contrast with the overall state result. Obama was able to get some of these counties within 5%, while Kerry did 10-15% worse than he did overall in the state.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2008, 04:37:21 PM »

Obama is black. They could of just stayed home, instead of vote for Obama.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2008, 05:40:54 PM »

So, they still probably voted. Thanks for proving my point.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2008, 06:11:27 PM »

My point is that Barack appeals to some people that would otherwise vote conservative. Reagan won over many who would have voted for a Liberal, so just because you are ideologically strong doesn't make you ideologically limited...in some cases.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2008, 09:45:00 PM »

I sent Obama a letter saying that when he is attacked by McCain, to just hold out the incident as what's wrong with the current body politic than attack McCain himself. Punish the sin but not the sinner.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2008, 09:23:48 AM »

My point is that Barack appeals to some people that would otherwise vote conservative. Reagan won over many who would have voted for a Liberal, so just because you are ideologically strong doesn't make you ideologically limited...in some cases.

No...it's more a case of Keyes not appealing to some people who would otherwise vote conservative. It's like using 1964 to show how LBJ had tremendous appeal to conservatives in the north. Or even as an example of how popular GOldwater was in the South.

As for Reagan, he mostly managed to utilize an existing conservative majority to his advantage.

...how did that 60% supermajority come and go?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2008, 07:34:35 PM »

My point is that Barack appeals to some people that would otherwise vote conservative. Reagan won over many who would have voted for a Liberal, so just because you are ideologically strong doesn't make you ideologically limited...in some cases.

No...it's more a case of Keyes not appealing to some people who would otherwise vote conservative. It's like using 1964 to show how LBJ had tremendous appeal to conservatives in the north. Or even as an example of how popular GOldwater was in the South.

As for Reagan, he mostly managed to utilize an existing conservative majority to his advantage.

...how did that 60% supermajority come and go?

I'm not sure what you are referring to here, but I'm guessing it may be Reagan's almost 59% in 1984. I would say that there were in some respects a much more conservative electorate back then. There is a case to be made that there is a more liberal electorate now than in previous years but I'm not convinced that there is to the same degree. When Reagan came along the Republicans had a traditional strong base dominating the West and stretching through the Midwest into New England. He was able to add the entire South to that coalition. By that point the Democrats were really pretty screwed. If you look at 1988 you get an idea of what kind of results Democrats could get in those days, without Reagan on the ballot. Things changed after that, of course.


Are we really any more liberal?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2008, 09:59:07 AM »

I doubt the south is more liberal. Maybe California is.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2008, 12:31:11 PM »

But, if you just look at the white vote, the south gives 70-90% of their votes to Bush.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2008, 05:04:31 PM »

Yeah, but I heard of a report of a prom being segregated until last year. ...and if the country is more liberal, where is President Gore?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,681
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2008, 05:35:53 PM »

Well, are they as relatively conservative as they were then?
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