November - McCain vs Obama

[agcatter]

West coast:  Obama sweeps.   Stronger than Hillary vs McCain in Washington and Oregon.  Mountain states:  No race here.  Colorado the exception.  Only battleground state here.  Leans McCain in November.     
                                                                                                                                                        Southwest: Arizona obviously not in play.  Nevada very close.  New Mexico leans Obama, but McCain can still win the state whereas he couldn't against Clinton.  Obama still the favorite 
       
Farm states:  McCain sweeps.  Obama did well in the primaries and caucuses but that was amongst Dems.  Exception is Iowa.  McCain had a very good chance against Hillary.  Slim to none vs Obama.  I guess that means it isn't a sweep after all.
                                                                                                                                                            Upper midwest:  Wisconsin will be relatively close but Obama wins by 5 this time.  Minn goes to Obama by 7 or so.  One of those areas where Obama runs significantly stronger than Hillary.Michigan goes to Obama about the same as Kerry carried it.  Shouldn't be that close due to the economy but race keeps it closer. 
                                                                                                                                                            South:  A blowout.  Not worth discussing with two exceptions.  Virginia will be for McCain by 3-5 in the end.  Webb was tied with Allen but Webb ran as a right leading centrist.  Obama isn't close to pulling that off.  Arkansas would have been Clinton's but that's over. 

                                                                                                                                                          Border states:  Oklahoma, Kentucky, West Virginia all blowouts due to race.  Missouri will be the one to watch.  It always is and it will be close - probably to McCain by 2 -3 in the end.  Race again.
                                                                                                                                                   Northeast:  See South.  Despite what some Dems think McCain is popular in NH and that  state will be a couple of points type race - won by Obama.  NJ will be reasonably close, but anyone who actually believes McCain will win there is smoking something.  NJ is the ultimate tease for Republicans.   

The big three that generally determine the race.                                                                             Florida - not this time.  McCain will win comfortably.  This gives the GOP a welcome and unexpected oasis in a tough year.                                                                                                                         Ohio -Close as always but it's here that McCain gets a break with Obama's nomination.  McCain will make inroads with working class Democrats.  Race, pure and simple.  The other help is rural Dems in the Southeast portion of the states - see Kentucky and West Virginia.  I like McCain's chances here.                                                                                                                                                      Pennsylvania - tossup.  Wouldn't be due to economy but race again.  McCain will cut into the same working class demographic in industrial areas that he does in Ohio.

There you have it.  Notice I didn't pick a winner.  It will be too damn close to do that.

[agcatter]

whoops.  I meant NH.

[agcatter]

I would agree that Obama runs better in the Republican states of Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, the Dakotas than did Kerry - probably 6 or 7 pts worth as it stands now.

[agcatter]

Yes, the election could break one way or the other.

McCain has health problems or economy really nosedives helps Obama.

An international crisis or terrorist attack on American soil obviously helps McCain.

There's also the possibility that one of the two candidates says something incredibly stupid in a debate.

[agcatter]

2000 and 2004 were pretty much the same dynamics.  Same battleground states.

2008 - as Michael Barone has stated, different dynamics.  Can Obama steal away Colorado?  Can McCain carry Pennsylvania?

Much more interesting election in my opinion.