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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
  November - McCain vs Obama (search mode)
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Author Topic: November - McCain vs Obama  (Read 12467 times)
Alcon
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« on: March 09, 2008, 01:38:37 pm »

Obama should outperform Kerry in the "farm states."

I don't know what state you're referring to in "the Northeast," but I may disagree there.

Otherwise, I agree that it's as good of a prediction as can currently be made.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,909
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2008, 01:43:05 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,909
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2008, 01:46:28 pm »

What about NM?  I see that state going to Obama by around 51-48, 52-47.

He...wrote about New Mexico.  Tongue

Assuming a close race = a bad idea. We could see blowouts from either direction in Obama v McCain.

It's certainly possible, but right now I think a close race is the most likely, so it's what I'm making predictions based on.
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,909
United States


« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2008, 06:34:17 pm »

Then this all pretty much my current prediction, too (although again I think Obama will make several solid GOP states west of the Mississippi closer, but not close).

For purposes of predicting a winner this doesn't really matter much though, since none of those are really close enough to be interesting.

Of course.  I only added that because "but that was among Dems" implied to me (wrongly) that he thought that Obama wouldn't perform any better in the region.

I think I totally agree with ag, though.

I kind of like analyzing even the non-competitive states, since the competitive states are typically so few.  Tongue
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Alcon
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Posts: 30,909
United States


« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2008, 09:14:37 pm »

3) Also, a lot of recent polling has had Texas close. This is probably due to (a) Bush not being on the ballot, (b) dissatisfaction with the war, the economy and Gov. Perry, and (c) Hispanic hostility to the Republican party. I still imagine that Texas will wind up going relatively comfortably for the Republicans. If it's an Obama blowout, he might win it though. And in an even race, it may be only about a 10-point McCain win, possibly slightly lower.

I'd say that much of that is the saturation of Democratic ads during the primary.
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