3) Also, a lot of recent polling has had Texas close. This is probably due to (a) Bush not being on the ballot, (b) dissatisfaction with the war, the economy and Gov. Perry, and (c) Hispanic hostility to the Republican party. I still imagine that Texas will wind up going relatively comfortably for the Republicans. If it's an Obama blowout, he might win it though. And in an even race, it may be only about a 10-point McCain win, possibly slightly lower.
I'd say that much of that is the saturation of Democratic ads during the primary.