November - McCain vs Obama

[pragmatic liberal]

Good analysis. I agree with most of it. A couple points:

1) I think Ohio will lean to Obama. Yes, Obama polls more poorly among working-class whites than Clinton and yes, the pastor controversy may hurt him. But a lot of that will be water under the bridge by the time November rolls around. I'm sure Ohio will be close, but with extremely high Black turnout, the poor state of the Ohio GOP, the popular current Dem governor and anger over globalization and the war in Iraq, I think Ohio will lean Obama.

2) Pennsylvania is more likely to be McCain country. Obama will do well in Philly and Pittsburgh, but will likely get crushed in rural areas. Will he win it? I'd say probably, but McCain has a much better shot here than even Bush had in '04.

3) Also, a lot of recent polling has had Texas close. This is probably due to (a) Bush not being on the ballot, (b) dissatisfaction with the war, the economy and Gov. Perry, and (c) Hispanic hostility to the Republican party. I still imagine that Texas will wind up going relatively comfortably for the Republicans. If it's an Obama blowout, he might win it though. And in an even race, it may be only about a 10-point McCain win, possibly slightly lower.

Obama also has a good chance in Virginia, although not really as much of a shot anywhere else in the South. Florida will be competitive, but will lean McCain.

[Alcon]

3) Also, a lot of recent polling has had Texas close. This is probably due to (a) Bush not being on the ballot, (b) dissatisfaction with the war, the economy and Gov. Perry, and (c) Hispanic hostility to the Republican party. I still imagine that Texas will wind up going relatively comfortably for the Republicans. If it's an Obama blowout, he might win it though. And in an even race, it may be only about a 10-point McCain win, possibly slightly lower.

I'd say that much of that is the saturation of Democratic ads during the primary.