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  Talk Elections
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
  Clinton To Take Wisconsin?
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Author Topic: Clinton To Take Wisconsin?  (Read 8069 times)
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #50 on: March 20, 2008, 10:11:43 pm »
« edited: March 20, 2008, 10:15:00 pm by Now We Rise And Are Everywhere »

JJ predicted that Clinton would win New Hampshire by 2%. BRTD laughed at it and even posted it in the Comedy Goldmine. Much ridicule followed.

Uh, no. That was Eraserhead. Get your facts straight.

Anyway are you willing to defend JJ on this point or do you agree he's citing polls that don't exist? If he's done something that blatantly hackish and dishonest I see nothing wrong with bringing it up later as an attack on credibility, hell this sort of thing happens in court and the legal system all the time.

Another recent example:

Alcon: While Obama tends to overperform in caucuses, that doesn't happen in counties with large Hispanic populations. There he tends to underperform his primary performance, as we saw in Texas.
J. J.: Go look at California.
Alcon: What? What's that have to do with it? *cites many examples of heavily Hispanic Texas counties where Hillary did much better in the caucus than primary*
J. J.: *silence*
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Alcon
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« Reply #51 on: March 20, 2008, 11:14:30 pm »

JJ predicted that Clinton would win New Hampshire by 2%. BRTD laughed at it and even posted it in the Comedy Goldmine. Much ridicule followed. Ever since he goes after JJ at every turn, digging up every statement he makes on the race, using language that is unusually aggressive even by BRTD's standard. I think the connection is pretty clear.

Yes, which is why I'm ignoring BRTD and don't bother holding him up to any standard whatsoever.  But I think you may be confusing him with someone else...

As I said, I haven't followed the Wisconsin stuff closely, but I do think JJ has entered into the land of hackery at times, which is sad because, yes, he is better than that. By the general forum standard though, I don't think he stands out in the field of hackery at all though.

No, but I think he's pushing pretty insidious hackery...competent-sounding hackery.

Most of BRTD's stuff is just meaningless "CLINTON SUCKS!" stuff.
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Nym90
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« Reply #52 on: March 21, 2008, 01:52:22 am »

Just because J.J. was wrong once doesn't mean he's automatically wrong in the future. Yeah, it's used in court to assail someone's credibility, but it's clearly a logical fallacy. You need to attack his argument on the facts and not just on the fact that he was wrong in the past....I'm sure everyone on this forum has been wrong on something, probably multiple times.

I agree he was hackish in Wisconsin, but he ended up being dead on in New Hampshire when everyone else was way off. Win some, lose some.
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
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« Reply #53 on: March 21, 2008, 11:20:20 pm »
« Edited: March 21, 2008, 11:22:21 pm by Now We Rise And Are Everywhere »

The difference is he made an out on a limb prediction in NH and turned out to be right. Here he didn't just make an out on a limb prediction and say "I think the polls are wrong and Hillary will have an upset in Wisconsin." He's basically saying the polls said something completely different from what they did. It's the worst case of hackery I've ever seen on the forum and not a single person will defend him on it and he's been attacked on it by many people who usually disagree with me.

And before anyone responds saying that I'm a hack too: I've never denied this. But as Alcon said, J. J. tries to pass off hackery as objective fair analysis.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #54 on: March 21, 2008, 11:53:19 pm »

Prediction:  On June 1, 2008, the Democratic nomination will not be decided.
Does prescience run in your family, J.J.? First the NH prediction and then this. Very impressive.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #55 on: March 21, 2008, 11:58:01 pm »
« Edited: March 22, 2008, 12:18:02 am by Verily »

Prediction:  On June 1, 2008, the Democratic nomination will not be decided.
Does prescience run in your family, J.J.? First the NH prediction and then this. Very impressive.

TBH, by mid-February this wasn't unlikely at all. I don't think we'd had many polls of TX and OH yet, but what polls we had at the time showed Clinton's support holding up, better than it actually did in the final results. And, of course, delegate numbers were, after February 5, never going to be conclusive to the point of true mathematical impossibility (just improbability) earlier than the end.

I don't think I was venturing predictions at the time, but I thought Obama had the nomination sewn up, and still do.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #56 on: March 22, 2008, 01:59:29 am »

LOLZOMGPWNED
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Gustaf
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« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2008, 01:39:03 pm »

It seems like I was completely mistaken about the New Hampshire thing. While I did remember Eraserhead was the one orginially posting it I could have sworn BRTD was involved in it too. He PMed me saying that it wasn't the case and after having checked it it does seem like my memory tripped me up. So I'd like to extend an apology to BRTD over that and hope he believes me when I say that it was an honest mistake. I will continue to disagree with him and criticize him on many scores, but this time I was wrong and he was right.
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