Wyoming Caucus(D) Results.

[Eraserhead]

Keep spinning folks! 

We learn from you Sam, the master of pro Hilldawg spin.

lol

The truth is funny, I know.

[Sam Spade]

Keep spinning folks! 

We learn from you Sam, the master of pro Hilldawg spin.

lol

The truth is funny, I know.

Truth is relative.  Of course, I don't know my relatives that well.

[Alcon]

This result says some stuff about Montana.  Not unexpected, but it does verify certain patterns that will be rearing their (ugly?) heads.

[TomC]

This result says some stuff about Montana.  Not unexpected, but it does verify certain patterns that will be rearing their (ugly?) heads.

And are you making us wait until May to be privvy?

[Sam Spade]

This result says some stuff about Montana.  Not unexpected, but it does verify certain patterns that will be rearing their (ugly?) heads.

I agree, Alcon the fascist.  Of course, it will be even more interesting when we're in a primary setting...

[Alcon]

This result says some stuff about Montana.  Not unexpected, but it does verify certain patterns that will be rearing their (ugly?) heads.

And are you making us wait until May to be privvy?

No, I'm trying to do the cool, mysterious Al thing but it just isn't working.  Fascists gotta be blunt.

We've been seeing constant hints that Obama does better in working-class areas of a certain type.  Mining sucks for him.  Light manufacturing (with a distinct blue-collar tradition) sucks for him.  Blue-collar non-service industry union areas really suck for him.

Working class people living in small, non-union towns in areas with little class warfare do not suck for him.  Voting is about attitude, not purely demographics (outside of the South, that is).  Poor people don't vote like poor people if they don't consider themselves to be poor people.  This is a hard thing to quantify, but it's pretty much an exclusively west-of-the-Mississippi phenomenon.  You also see it in certain parts of rural California.  It will be a huge factor in South Dakota, although not so much Montana (which I can elaborate on too, if you want).

Then again, caucuses are weird.  You can never tell how representative they really are.  Obama shouldn't have won Campbell County, but he did anyway.  Texas is the only state where we have a realistic comparison, and using rural Texas to estimate rural South Dakota and Montana would be ill-advised.

[Sam Spade]

Yea, what the fascist said, generally...

[TomC]

Thanks!

[Alcon]

Yea, what the fascist said, generally...

Yeah, emphasis on "generally."  (I'd like to hear your thoughts on any disagreements. )

This is a voter class that is unpredictable and rarely stands out in elections.  They also consist of a diverse range of other characteristics - religious affiliation, church attendance, income [ranging from poor to middle classish], and pretty much everything (although by geographical coincidence, they're all white ).  They're hard to isolate, harder to predict, and aren't going to Obama by heavy enough margins to register in most political analysis.

Obama generally wins them, but not everywhere, and most of them are Republicans anyway.  But they will be a big factor in South Dakota - more than any other state.

(If you want a case study in a place that is absolutely full of this kind of voter, in a more extreme/quirky case than others, check out Trinity County, CA.  The place that voted for Perot.)

[Nym90]

This result says some stuff about Montana.  Not unexpected, but it does verify certain patterns that will be rearing their (ugly?) heads.

And are you making us wait until May to be privvy?

No, I'm trying to do the cool, mysterious Al thing but it just isn't working. 

Yeah, I think only Al can really pull that off. It is pretty awesome, though. Keeps you coming back for more. I think Brits in general might be better at kinda teasing us along, whereas us Americans are so acclimatized to a culture where we have to have it all now.

[Sam Spade]

Yea, what the fascist said, generally...

Yeah, emphasis on "generally."  (I'd like to hear your thoughts on any disagreements. )

This is a voter class that is unpredictable and rarely stands out in elections.  They also consist of a diverse range of other characteristics - religious affiliation, church attendance, income [ranging from poor to middle classish], and pretty much everything (although by geographical coincidence, they're all white ).

Obama generally wins them, but not everywhere, and most of them are Republicans anyway.  But they will be a big factor in South Dakota - more than any other state.

I really have no disagreements.  The difference that you were harping on (and so is Al) has to do with Montana, which is, in many ways, quite different from the other states that surround it b/c of the class warfare tradition and the union influence.  I am curious to see how that area flies...

[Nym90]

Since Montana is a primary state, it could well go to Clinton. Unlike other Mountain West states, it actually has white Democrats who aren't "latte liberals". However for some of the reasons Alcon mentioned, the union vote there could go to Obama more strongly than expected (sorta like Wisconsin).

It's certainly far from the Obama slam dunk that you might think from looking at the national map.

[Alcon]

You're probably wishing I'd shut up about now, but I just want to add this about Montana:

Outside of Butte-Anaconda*, class warfare exists but is not talked about.  Montana voters, even in blue-collar towns that Clinton demographically should landslide, want to think they're the type of voters I'm talking about.  This comes up a lot in places like Great Falls, and you'll see a lot of connection between this attitude and working-class Montana areas voting Republican.  Libby (of W.R. Grace fame) is poor, has been screwed over by industry, and still votes landslide GOP.  And it's not, as some would guess, primarily because of religion.

In simple terms: Montanans hate to think that their voting patterns are defined by socioeconomic class, but they can be.

Good news for Clinton: A lot of people who feel this way vote Republican.

Good news for Obama: Some don't, and Missoula and Helena exist.

Places to watch: Bozeman (how big of an Obama win?), Cascade County (how big of a Clinton win?), Yellowstone County (who wins?).

It is NOT safe Obama.

* - My junior English teacher, Butte born and bred, is an ethnically Catholic hyperpartisan Democrat.  She likes Obama "well enough" and would vote for him in the General.  But she admires Hillary, who she calls "proven" and "a traditional Democrat," and supports her in the primary without reservations.  At least 60% of the Butte-Anaconda Democrats are exactly like this.  For an area with so many tensions between ethnic groups, they almost always all vote exactly the same way, and this primary will be no different.

So...who's bored of Montana!!!

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama 5378 (61%) / Clinton 3312 (38%) / Uncommitted 65 (1%)

Counties [Obama] by margin:

Teton: Obana 919 (80%) / Clinton 231 (20%)
Albany: Obama 969 (74%) / Clinton 328 (25%) / Uncommitted 11 (1%)
Uinta: Obama 123 (73%) / Clinton 45 (27%)
Park: Obama 209 (63%) / Clinton 124 (37%)
Laramie: Obama 940 (62%) / Clinton 588 (38%)
Johnson: Obama 61 (62%) / Clinton 38 (38%)
Sheridan: Obama 321 (61%) / Clinton 205 (39%)
Sublette: Obama 48 (61%) / Clinton 27 (35%) / Uncommitted 3 (4%)
Campbell: Obama 112 (61%) / Clinton 68 (37%) / Uncommitted 1 (1%)
Lincoln: Obama 81 (60%) / Clinton 53 (39%) / Uncommitted 2 (1%)
Washake: Obama 58 (59%) / Clinton 40 (41%)
Fremont: Obama 335 (56%) / Clinton 235 (40%) / Uncommitted 22 (4%)
Big Horn: Obama 49 (54%) / Clinton 42 (46%)
Hotsprings: Obama 31 (48%) / Clinton 22 (34%) / Uncommitted 11 (17%)
Natrona: Obama 468 (50%) / Clinton 461 (49%) / Uncommitted 13 (1%)

Counties [Tied]/color]

Crook: Clinton 31 (50%) / Obama 31 (50%)
Niobrara: Clinton 10 (50%) / Obama 10 (50%)

Counties [Clinton] by margin:

Goshen: Clinton 108 (53%) / Obama 96 (47%)
Carbon: Clinton 114 (53%) / Obama (43%)
Platte: Clinton 89 (51%) / Obama 84 (49%)
Sweetwater: Clinton 342 (57%) / Obama 254 (47%)
Converse: Clinton 71 (58%) / Obama 48 (39%)
Weston: Clinton 40 (59%) / Obama 28 (41%)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Working class people living in small, non-union towns in areas with little class warfare do not suck for him.  Voting is about attitude, not purely demographics (outside of the South, that is).  Poor people don't vote like poor people if they don't consider themselves to be poor people.  This is a hard thing to quantify, but it's pretty much an exclusively west-of-the-Mississippi phenomenon.  You also see it in certain parts of rural California.  It will be a huge factor in South Dakota, although not so much Montana (which I can elaborate on too, if you want).

Huge factor in South Dakota?

South Dakota Democrats outside of the Natives and old New Dealers in the rural areas tend to be either latte liberal types who really just want to be latte liberals but can't afford to live like one outside of South Dakota or young recent college graduates/people who never bothered with college who moved there for the cheap cost of living and booming economy (in the urban areas.)

[bgwah]

Yay, Teton County saved the day (I predicted >60 Obama and wanted full points).

Montana will be interesting. My parents are from Missoula--a city I hope saves the day for Obama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working class people living in small, non-union towns in areas with little class warfare do not suck for him.  Voting is about attitude, not purely demographics (outside of the South, that is).  Poor people don't vote like poor people if they don't consider themselves to be poor people.  This is a hard thing to quantify, but it's pretty much an exclusively west-of-the-Mississippi phenomenon.  You also see it in certain parts of rural California.  It will be a huge factor in South Dakota, although not so much Montana (which I can elaborate on too, if you want).

"By class I understand a historical phenomenon, unifying a number of disparate and seemingly unconnected events, both in the raw material of experiance and in consciousness. I emphasize that it is a historical phenomenon. I do not see class as a 'structure', nor even as a 'catagory', but as something which in fact happens (and can be shown to have happend) in human relationships."

"And class happens when some men, as a result of common experiances (inherited or shared), feel and articulate the identity of their interests as between themselves, and as against other men whose interests are different from (and usually opposed to) theirs. The class experience is largely determined by the productive relations into which men are born - or enter involuntarily. Class-consciousness is the way in which these experiences are handled in cultural terms: embodied in traditions, value-systems, ideas, and in instiutional forms. If the experience appears as determined, class-consciousness does not. We can see a logic in the responses of similar occupational groups undergoing similar experiences, but we cannot predicate any law. Consciousness of class arises in the same way in different times and places, but never in just the same way".

Both passages are from the preface to E.P.Thompson's The Making of the English Working Class. A classic.

[Alcon]

Huge factor in South Dakota?

South Dakota Democrats outside of the Natives and old New Dealers in the rural areas tend to be either latte liberal types who really just want to be latte liberals but can't afford to live like one outside of South Dakota or young recent college graduates/people who never bothered with college who moved there for the cheap cost of living and booming economy (in the urban areas.)

We'll see if Sioux Falls "latte liberals" vote like Jackson "latte liberals."

My inclination is definitely that Obama is favored - there are few areas where Clinton is promised landslides - but there is a Democratic, non-latte working class population in SD that you're ignoring a little too much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well it's hard to deny Obama would take Sioux Falls and Rapid City. He's also obviously take Brookings, Aberdeen and Vermillion.

After that it's tough to see how Hilary can close the gap.