Long term drift to the Democrats?

[Gustaf]

I think there is an important point to be made here, namely that demographical changes and the like tend to bring about policy changes, not electoral ones. In a two-party system the parties adapt to the new landscape and win back voters.

One example: the leftist surge of the late 60s broke the leftist dominance in Sweden with the first right being victory for 44 years (now that's dominance!).

Realpolitik will cut my throat, but the same can be said of the swing to the right in the UK. It has actually marginalised the Tories and paved way for the Labour Party, which has simply adapted by moving to the right.

[Gustaf]

Long Term from when? 1860? 1900? 1924? 1936? 1956? 1964? 1972? 1984? 1996? etc?

My guess next election:

GOP gain Hispanic votes, Dems gain in Appalachia.

Nice, safe bets

Well, the first bet was right.

Interesting thread.

I think we've now reached the last stage of a political realignment that began in the 1960s.  First, the Democrats became the party of civil rights for blacks, and in doing so, picked up the loyal support of blacks while alienating some erstwhile white supporters.

Next, the Democrats went further in alienating white working class voters -- the former bulwark of the party -- with their sharp turn to the left in the 1960s, both in domestic and foreign policy.

The next step was a Republican realignment in the mid-to-late 1970s, when conservatives rather than moderates took control of the party.  The nexus of the party shifted from the northeast to the south and the mountain west.

Then the Democrats moderated their economic stances in the 1990s sufficiently to attract the support of many who had declined to vote for them previously.  Clinton was instrumental in making it socially acceptable for people in more mature suburbs who were growing dissatisfied with the Republican nexus shift to the southern/western states to vote Democratic, and this solidified the Democratic hold in the northeast and west coast.

That brings us to where we are today -- an almost even split slightly favoring the Republicans under normal conditions.  Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

I think it will take time and not be the result of intended policies. Neither party is in enough trouble to take the risk of losing their current position, which is required to get new support.