Long term drift to the Democrats?

[dazzleman]

Long Term from when? 1860? 1900? 1924? 1936? 1956? 1964? 1972? 1984? 1996? etc?

My guess next election:

GOP gain Hispanic votes, Dems gain in Appalachia.

Nice, safe bets

Well, the first bet was right.

Interesting thread.

I think we've now reached the last stage of a political realignment that began in the 1960s.  First, the Democrats became the party of civil rights for blacks, and in doing so, picked up the loyal support of blacks while alienating some erstwhile white supporters.

Next, the Democrats went further in alienating white working class voters -- the former bulwark of the party -- with their sharp turn to the left in the 1960s, both in domestic and foreign policy.

The next step was a Republican realignment in the mid-to-late 1970s, when conservatives rather than moderates took control of the party.  The nexus of the party shifted from the northeast to the south and the mountain west.

Then the Democrats moderated their economic stances in the 1990s sufficiently to attract the support of many who had declined to vote for them previously.  Clinton was instrumental in making it socially acceptable for people in more mature suburbs who were growing dissatisfied with the Republican nexus shift to the southern/western states to vote Democratic, and this solidified the Democratic hold in the northeast and west coast.

That brings us to where we are today -- an almost even split slightly favoring the Republicans under normal conditions.  Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

[dazzleman]

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Republicans (somehow) gaining the life-long allegiance of Latinos and Asians (without alienating their largely white supporters) based on a shared optimism on attaining the American Dream of owning their own homes, running a small business, family values, and a deep attachment to the military.

Interesting.  I think the immigration issue complicates this, though many latinos are as against illegal immigration as many whites.

I actually don't think it will be that difficult to attract upwardly mobile latinos and asians without alienating whites, in the long run.  It would be much, much harder to do this with blacks, for a number of reasons.  Asians are not considered a 'problem' minority for the most part, and many upwardly mobile latinos tend to join up with, and blend into, the dominant white culture, from which the Republican party draws nearly all its support.

Another possibility is that Republicans lose some of their support, particularly in the south, if people voting for them based on cultural issues become more comfortable with the Democrats' position on economic issues.  This is a possibility, though the racial divide makes it difficult for the Democrats to pull off.

[dazzleman]

Does anybody have an idea what the event will be that will knock the whole thing off dead center?

Here's another possible scenario:

President Bush manages to appoint yet another conservative justice to the Supreme Court with the retirement or death of Justice John Paul Stevens, creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court (plus the conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy).  This new court overturns Roe vs. Wade and Casey vs. Planned Parenthood, returning the issue to the states to decide as they see fit, as well as dealing a similar body-blow to gay marriage advocates seeking to have gay marriage legalized on a national level through the Supreme Court. 

Are you thinking that this would help the Democrats by energizing their base?

This scenario can only happen if Republicans do well in this fall's elections.  We'll see about that....