Long term drift to the Democrats? (user search)
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  Long term drift to the Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Long term drift to the Democrats?  (Read 30250 times)
Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
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Posts: 332


« on: November 21, 2003, 03:40:34 PM »

Relax people, the theory about a long term drift to one party or the other has been on for the last 100 years and more. Tongue

Not that there haven't been good reasons for these theories and they seem to have been valid in the "short-term". Over time a party that's looking at a minority status takes action to expand its base and remain competitive. The US political system rocks that way. Smiley

In the specific case you mention (paid immigrant growth) Bush won 33% of Hispanics in 2000 and the GOP won 39% in the 2002 midterms. The GOP is also making gains among other immigrant groups like the Indian-American community. If you find this shocking, Let me provide some explanation..... Unlike the black community, which is now (for the most part) solidly liberal and thus certain to oppose the GOP for some time to come, the Hispanic and Indian-American community is way to the right on social issues. I would guess that a clear majority is pro-life and pro-school prayer and would probably oppose gay marriage among others.

And even if a reasonable argument is made that the GOP wont take a majority of these votes and will still have a definite (if smaller) long term decline; then consider this...............

The Americans of the Bush nation tend to have more children than the Americans of the Gore nation, and the communities of the Bush nation tend to welcome growth while the communities of the Gore nation tend to limit it: California's culturally conservative Central Valley is growing faster than the culturally liberal San Francisco Bay area.

The fastest-growing parts of the United States are formerly rural counties on the metropolitan fringe, beyond the edge-city office centers, and are now filling up with family-sized subdivisions, outlet shopping malls, and booming mega-churches. Though many of these are within the boundaries of major metro areas, these counties tend to vote strongly Republican; and, with their growth, they have produced Republican majorities almost large enough to offset the Democratic margins in heavily black or culturally liberal central cities. These are places such as Collin County, Texas, which grew by 86 percent in the 1990s, and voted 73 percent to 24 percent for Bush; Forsyth County, Georgia, which grew by 123 percent, and voted 78 percent to 19 percent for Bush; and Douglas County, Colorado, which grew by 191 percent, and voted 65 percent to 31 percent for Bush.

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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2003, 02:05:59 PM »

I have an interest in Appalacia and don't care that sod all people live there.

Come again?? "Sod all" as in a few or a derogatory term for the people??
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2003, 02:13:12 PM »

You are correct in pointing out that, basically, cultural divides between the parties are getting greater while economic divides are getting smaller. It used to be that the rich voted Republican and the poor voted Democratic, but this is much less true than it used to be. It's down to the point where even the richest voters are only about 60-40 Republican and the poorest are only about 60-40 Democratic. But cultural fault lines are getting greater. Democrats are getting stronger among wealthy, socially progressive voters and Republicans are gaining among poor, socially conservative voters. Whether or not this will continue in the future, however, is open to debate. Clinton was fairly popular with poor rural voters, but Gore was not. This seems to have made up most of the difference between 1996 and 2000, as Gore did almost as well as Clinton in most suburban and urban areas, with as you say exceptions in highly working class areas which voted more like rural areas did.

Poor Realpolitik- his insistance that higher income vote republican and lower income vote democrat is likely to be denied again Cheesy

I myself also believe that people should vote on economic interest but I don't agree that the Poor's economic interest lies with the Dems nor that the Rich should definitely be solidly GOP. The dems and GOP have two different theories of economic development and growth and the people who agree with each of those should vote for that party. A class divide is as artificial and undesirable as a racial divide.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2003, 02:30:24 PM »

If people in the US voted as Britons do, Connecticut would be the safest GOP state and Mississippi would be a Democrat landslide (80%+ Democrat).
You're assuming that poorer people will believe the Democrats when they claim to be "on their side".  It doesn't ring true when the US Senate is full of liberal Democrats that are millionaires.
One of my state's Senators, Dayton, is from an extrememly wealthy family.  How can he relate to a guy trying to start his own business?

All fine but in English's defence he did say "IF" Smiley
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